March Madness, NCAA

Projecting the 2022 March Madness tournament field: The #1 seeds, contenders, and Cinderellas

 

The NFL season has concluded following the Los Angeles Rams Super Bowl victory. The Super Bowl is one of the most significant betting events in the United States. However, if there’s one sporting event that may do bigger numbers than the Super Bowl, it’s the NCAA Tournament also known as March Madness.

There are a lot of changes that will occur in the final few weeks of the NCAA basketball regular season. However, it’s time to start projecting brackets for March for betting purposes. It’s never too early to start researching how you will make money on March Madness even as the schedule has yet to be populated.  Let’s get into some projections for the NCAA Tournament.

The One Seeds 

If the season ended today, the four one seeds in the NCAA Tournament would likely be Gonzaga, Kentucky, Auburn, and Arizona. These four teams have the most betting value in the future markets on top sportsbooks like BetMGM.

According to BetMGM, Gonzaga is the favorite to win in March. The team’s odds are +450. Kentucky is second at +800, Auburn is next at +1000, and Arizona also comes in at this same number.

Gonzaga may be the best team in the land, but they have struggled to win the big game. The team made it to the National Championship Game in 2017 and 2021 but finished second. Gonzaga plays in the West Coast Conference, and this could be their biggest downfall.

The team dominates their opponents throughout the regular season, but considering they’re playing in a mid-major, the perception is that the Bulldogs aren’t battled tested. When the big game occurs, they cannot win against the ACC, Big 12, and SEC. The power five schools are tested every week, making a huge difference.

This is a reason a large number of the bets will likely come in on Kentucky, Auburn, and Arizona of the one seeds. I am very high on the Tigers out of the projected one seeds.

Auburn is the second-ranked team in America. They lost to UConn early in the season and were just bested by Arkansas on the road. The SEC turns into a strong basketball conference, so do not look past Auburn. At 23 wins and 2 losses, the Auburn Tigers may not be getting a 10th of the press that Gonzaga is receiving, but that could work in the team’s and your favor. The Tigers could be my favorite future in the entire tournament for the price.

Other Teams to Watch

Some other teams to watch with fair prices are Purdue, Baylor, and Kansas. These teams will fight for one seed down the stretch but likely end up as a two in their respective regions. A two-seed is just as valuable so betting on these teams is also a good play.

Out of this group, I am high on Purdue. The Boilermakers are the fifth-ranked team in the nation. The team’s losses are not good, but they only have one loss at home to Wisconsin. The Badgers were 24th in the country at the time.

Purdue has gone on the road and lost to three teams they should have beat. Their worst loss came against Michigan on the road by an 82-58 margin. Michigan is an average team, but Purdue’s home court was too much. Additionally, they had just defeated the Wolverines less than one week prior. It’s tough to beat a team twice in that short time span.

One Dark Horse

In the NCAA Tournament, the most talented teams usually win games, but if we’ve learned anything over the years, the dark horses or Cinderellas are always one that mixes things up and blows up brackets across the country. Who will be this year’s dark horse? It’s hard to tell, but UConn at +6600 does have some value. The Huskies has been very inconsistent, but they should enter March as a six to eight seed. If the Huskies get hot at the right time, the team is talented enough to make a Cinderella run. We have seen this before from UConn.

 

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