While the Washington Wizards, Indiana Pacers and New Orleans Pelicans are exactly in the NBA standings where NBA analysts expected them to be a month into the season, a few teams have overachieved. Several preseason mid to bottom-tier teams are already outperforming projections, and 10 different teams have logged at least one upset win against a top-four seed in either conference.

Attention still gravitates toward the usual star-powered contenders in the OKC Thunder, Denver Nuggets and Kevin Durant has been everything the Houston Rockets hoped for, but that’s exactly where these underdogs’ value hides. While headlines focus on Super Teams and award races, the fans tracking rotations, injuries, travel stretches, and efficiency trends are spotting underdog surges before the odds shift. These shifts create fresh openings that help fans earn more with NBA online betting. 

In a season this open and chaotic, the biggest edges come from paying attention to what’s actually happening not what people expected back a couple months ago.

1. Detroit Pistons

Detroit’s young core is finally clicking with Cade Cunningham, Jalen Duren, and Ausur Thompson. They also added toughness with Jevonte Green and shooting from Duncan Robinson. They are at the top of the Eastern Conference with a 12-2 record with ten consecutive wins; that record is second only in the league to NBA Champions Oklahoma City Thunder. All this with Cunningham missing five of those games. Duren looks like an all-star lock and the Pistons’ length, physicality, effort and pace have overwhelmed slower veteran squads, and their ball movement is the best it’s looked in years. DEEEEEEE-TROIT BAS-KET-BAALLLLLL

2. Chicago Bulls

Despite really low expectations going into the season, the Bulls have become one of the season’s biggest surprises. They opened the year on fire, winning their fist five games (and responsible for one of Detroit’s two losses). Since then they’ve lost 5 straight games and are  hovering above .500. Still Josh Giddey is playing like an all-star and amassing the most triple doubles east of Denver. He along with Ayo Dosunmu, Matas Buzelis, Kevin Huerter and Jalen Smith all flowing together and upsetting two of the top teams.

Their defensive rating has jumped significantly compared to last season, and their bench has kept them in tight games. With balanced production across the roster, they’ve become a tricky matchup for anyone. Good news is all of this happened without last season’s leading scorer Coby White — and he just came back for his first game.

3. San Antonio Spurs

Wembanyama has completely changed the Spurs’ ceiling this season; coming into the season with a renewed sense of self and readiness to dominant. San Antonio sits at 9-4 after losing two games to the Golden State Warriors. Thanks to Wemby’s height and reach as well as strong perimeter defense from Stephon Castle and Devin Vassell the Spurs defense ranks in the top 5 of the entire league, with Wembanyama averaging dominant two-way performances. We’ll see how well the Spurs can hold now that Wemby will miss at least a couple weeks due to a minor injury.

4. Los Angeles Lakers

Is it weird to have the Lakers in this list?  We think so.  They’re a surprising 10-4 without LeBron James having stepped on the court once. Yes, they have Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves is likely going to play in his fist NBA All-Star Game, but past those two, there isn’t much talent surrounding them.

The Lakers have quietly been one of the league’s most reliable underdogs. They’re 5–2 in games where they weren’t favored and recently picked up a pair of impressive road wins during a tough travel stretch. Their veteran experience shows in late-game situations, where they’ve closed out several tight contests with disciplined execution. Even with inconsistent availability, they continue to punch above their weight.

5. Phoenix Suns

The Suns aren’t lighting up the league on fire, but at 8-6 they’ve kicked off the 2025-26 campaign much better than anyone expected. Phoenix has weathered early injuries and found unexpected stability. They’ve gone 4–1 in their last five underdog scenarios and just snapped a contender’s win streak with a gritty team performance. Of course there’s Devin Booker. The pleasant surprise has been that Grayson Allen and Dillon Brooks have provided consistent scoring in the backcourt.

What It All Means Going Forward

So what does this all mean?  Not much to be honest. It’s nice for the fans to get excited for the season but old heads know not to read too much into the first 15 games — that’s less than 20% of the season. The rise of competitive underdogs does make every game feel like a toss-up. Looking beyond true championship potential and focusing on things like rotation changes, travel schedules, and injury reports can reveal angles that sportsbooks miss. Fans who track efficiency stats, rest days, and matchups often catch signals before the lines shift. It’s made depth and coaching just as important as star power.

Rest days and analytics have leveled the playing field. When teams rest starters, young bench players often bring a spark that disrupts opponents. And with advanced tracking, teams can plan rotations more precisely than ever.

Home-court advantage still matters, but it’s no longer automatic. Underdogs with the right game plan can steal tough road wins — something we’ve seen repeatedly from this year’s breakout teams.

The 2025–26 NBA season is showing us that the gap between top teams and rebuilding squads is smaller than ever. Underdogs aren’t just competing — they’re winning enough to change playoff projections and shake up betting lines.