A mere five weeks from Selection Sunday, and the championship race feels fundamentally different than in the last few years.  This season? There’s no dynasty. There’s no overwhelming favorite. There’s Arizona’s impossible chase for perfection, Michigan is defeating opponents by double digits more often than not and Houston’s relentless defense, Duke’s freshman phenom, and Illinois lurking as the bracket-buster nobody sees coming.

But who do the bookies think will leave Lucas Oil Stadium with the Natty in tow on April 6th? Let’s take a deeper look at some of the top candidates this season.

Arizona Wildcats: +425

Tommy Lloyd stands courtside at McKale Center, watching their win total tick higher up to 23 consecutive wins, the best start in Arizona program history, better than anything in Big 12 history.

His Wildcats walked into Allen Fieldhouse on February 9th to face a Kansas side that was 38-0 in Big Monday games under Bill Self. The Jayhawks performed better than anyone gave them any right to, as they were beaten in last year’s National Championship game, and Arizona would have to be similarly impressive if they were to keep their perfect record intact. While #9 Kansas went on to upset the Wildcats, Arizona is still one of the best teams in the nation.

Right now, the country’s #1 team Arizona isn’t just winning they’re obliterating opponents by over 21 points per game. They’re averaging 89.5 points a night while shooting 51.6% from the field, grabbing 43.4 rebounds per contest, and dishing 18.2 assists. Bill Self looked at their tape and said it plainly: “They’re men; they dominate people 12 feet and in.” That’s not coach speak. That’s reality.

Brayden Burries leads with 15.3 points per game on ridiculous efficiency with 50.8% from the field, 36.7% from three, adding 1.6 steals for good measure. Jaden Bradley, the senior distributor, gives you 13.8 points and 4.5 assists, the steady hand running Lloyd’s offense. But the real terror lives in the paint: 7 ‘2 Motiejus Krivas from Lithuania is averaging 11.0 points, 8.3 rebounds, 1.8 blocks, shooting 60.4%.

They controled the paint with 54 points near the basket against Oklahoma State which was a statement of dominance. What makes Arizona dangerous for tournament opponents? They can beat you with guard play, post dominance, or by simply running you off the floor. That interior presence Krivas and Tobe Awaka controlling the glass, top 10 draft pick Koa Peat finishing through contact travels to any arena, any opponent, any March environment.

The latest Final Four odds make them the clear +425 favorite for good reason. The 23-0 record isn’t fool’s gold it’s built on dominating quality Big 12 opponents in a conference that’s brutal from top to bottom. They’ve got the star power, the depth, the coaching, and the interior dominance that wins championships when games slow down and get physical. Lloyd has been close before, but this roster feels different. More complete. More ready. The only question is whether they can handle the weight of expectation when one bad shooting night or one hot opponent can send them home.

Michigan Wolverines: +525

Dusty May got a contract extension mid-season. That’s not normal. That’s a program recognizing they’ve struck gold and refusing to let anyone poach him. Michigan is averaging over 90 points per game, has hit triple digits eight times (tied for second-most in program history), and has won 18 games by 10+ points, 12 by 20+, nine by 30+, and seven by 40+.  Michigan’s defense forces turnovers (teams average 13.3 giveaways against them), and they convert those mistakes into transition buckets before you can set up.​ Online betting sites agree.

Michigan’s “Big Three” front court drives everything: Yaxel Lendeborg (14.3 ppg, 7.5 rpg), Morez Johnson Jr. (13.6 ppg, 7.3 rpg), and Aday Mara (11.3 ppg, 6.9 rpg) combine for 40% of Michigan’s offense and more than half their rebounding. Mara just dropped a career-high 24 points at Ohio State, draining his first two three-pointers of the season.

Michigan has a balanced attack: Nimari Burnett went nuclear against Penn State career-high 31 points on seven three-pointers in a 110-69 demolition. Trey McKenney comes off the bench has scored double figures in six straight games off the bench and LJ Cason just helped Michigan come back against a determined Northwestern team.

The analytics nerds love Michigan. Every efficiency metric says they’re the best team in America. Their only loss? 91-88 to Wisconsin on January 10, a shootout they couldn’t close. But here’s the anxiety keeping Michigan fans awake: can the Wolverine’s balanced attack work in March’s halfcourt grind? March Madness defense is different. Possessions tighten. Runs get stopped. Does May have the adjustments when the game slows to 60 possessions and every bucket requires blood? We’ll find out.

Houston Cougars: +900

Kelvin Sampson has built a machine that runs on defense, rebounding, and breaking your will to compete. Houston allows just 67.3 points per game and has beaten No. 22 Auburn (73-72), No. 14 Arkansas (94-85), and No. 14 Texas Tech (69-65) in revenge. Their only losses? 76-73 to Tennessee in the Maui Invitational and 90-86 at Texas Tech—both against elite opponents, both winnable. At +900, the Cougars represent the best value in this entire race. They’ve been to multiple Final Fours recently.

The Cougars know how to navigate March’s chaos. Their defense travels. But the question that haunts them: can they score enough when possessions shrink, and elite defenses lock in? Sampson has always manufactured offense through offensive rebounds and forced turnovers, but championship games demand someone who can create their own shot in the final four minutes. Do they have that guy? If not, they’re going to have to find him, and quickly.