In one of the most shocking upsets in Eurobasket history, Finland defeated Serbia 92-86 in the EuroBasket 2025 Round of 16 and sent the tournament favorites packing. Serbia brought Nikola Jokić, the three-time NBA MVP, and a deep roster of professionals who were picked by most experts to win the gold medal. Finland ignored all that noise. This was their first victory against Serbia since 2009, and now they’ve reached consecutive quarter-finals for the first time.

The Game That Shocked Europe

One of the best players in the Eurobasket tourney continued his excellent play. Lauri Markkanen scored 29 points and looked like a man possessed from the opening tip. Finland jumped out to an 11-1 lead before anyone could blink, then stretched it to 16-5. Serbia tried to fight back (they’ve got Jokić, after all) and managed to tie things at 28-28 in the second quarter. But Finland never panicked and only trailed 48-44 at the break.

Basketball fans who track European tournaments through sports websites and betting sites like those recommended by Casino Beats got to witness something special. These sites usually focus on odds and predictions, but sometimes you get upsets that make all the experts look foolish.

The real drama came in the fourth quarter when Elias Valtonen turned into a folk hero. Serbia had clawed back to take a 77-75 lead with five minutes left, and it looked like their class would tell. Instead, Valtonen went crazy. He nailed a three with under two minutes left to put Finland up 82-78. Then he grabbed an offensive rebound and scored again. Then he hit another three right in Jokić’s face to ice the game. Eight points in two minutes when his country needed him most.

How Finland Beat Serbia

Finland won this game on the boards, pure and simple. They grabbed 20 offensive rebounds, which is absolutely ridiculous against a team with Serbia’s size and talent. Every time Serbia thought they had stopped Finland’s attack, another Finnish player would come flying in to grab the ball and give them another chance.

The Finns call their rebounding strategy “tagging”: they send three or four players to attack the offensive glass instead of worrying about getting back on defense. Most teams can’t pull this off because they don’t have the conditioning or the commitment. Finland does both. Miro Little finished with 13 points, eight rebounds, and six assists. Mikael Jantunen battled Jokić all night and scored 15 points. Even Valtonen, who averaged less than five points per game in the group stage, grabbed four offensive rebounds.

Serbia’s coach Svetislav Pešić couldn’t find solutions. His players failed to control Finland’s rebounds, and those second chances killed them over four quarters. When Finland pulls down 20 offensive boards in an elimination game, they earn whatever follows.

Serbia’s Championship Window Slammed Shut

This defeat hurts Serbia badly because they had all the pieces in place. Nikola Jokić dominated with 33 points and eight rebounds, and Nikola Jović contributed 20 points. The rest of the roster vanished when pressure mounted. Serbia made only 29 percent of their three-point attempts, which is pathetic for a team loaded with proven shooters.

Bogdan Bogdanović’s injury absence proved more damaging than anyone anticipated. Serbia has relied on him for years to make big shots and provide leadership during crucial moments. Without him, they looked lost whenever Finland made their scoring runs. Jokić carried the load alone, but one superstar can’t win elimination games without help.

Serbia now faces questions after their second consecutive Round of 16 elimination at EuroBasket. Italy sent them home in 2022, even though Serbia won every group stage game. They captured Olympic bronze in Paris last summer, which raised expectations for this tournament. Instead, they exit early again with the same familiar disappointment.

The Bigger Picture for Finnish Basketball

Finland’s basketball program has come a long way since they returned to EuroBasket in 2011 after missing 16 straight years. Back then, they were just happy to qualify. Now they’re knocking out countries that everyone expects to win medals.

Their best EuroBasket finish before this run was sixth place in 1967 when they hosted the tournament. They’ve been to 17 EuroBasket competitions total and made the Olympics twice: in 1952 as hosts and in 1964. For decades, they were an afterthought in European basketball.

This victory also shows how much European basketball has changed. The old powers can’t just show up and expect to win anymore. Countries like Finland have closed the gap through smart coaching and relentless work. Serbia learned that lesson the hard way in Riga.