Remake of last years final is set early in the playoffs. It is harder to make an upset in a best of five series rather than only in one game. Olympiacos beat Real Madrid 100:88 in their last game in the Euroelague and it was in the very finals. The current situation is very different because of some important roster changes. Olympiacos has signed Mirza Begic from Real Madrid to improve the presence in the paint after Kyle Hines, Pero Antic and Papanikolau all left the club. Real Madrid has kept its core players adding couple of experienced players like Tremmell Darden and Ioannis Bourousis. This makes it harder for the Greek side to be the only team in the history of European basketball that has won three Euroleague titles in a row.

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Key Matchup

Sergio Rodriguez (Real Madrid) v Vassilis Spanoulis (Olympiacos)

Two floor generals for both teams. Sergio Rodriguez had a huge season until now and was the most important part of this Real Madrid roster. He averages 14.2 points, 5.2 assists, 1.3 steals on 52.3% shooting from the floor in 22 minutes per game. So if you put this numbers in the 36 minute frame you will get some ridiculous numbers. Vassilis Spanoulis has similar numbers, but in 27 minutes per game. He is scoring 14.5 points per game alongside with 4.5 assists. His shooting from behind the three point line has not been so great as he averages only 34.5% behind the arc. Spanoulis had some issues with injuries late in the Top 16 phase, but came back and led his team to the playoffs.

It will be interesting to see how will two offensive minded point guards match against each other and which one of them will manage the game tempo. We gave the edge to Sergio Rodriguez because he has Dontaye Draper on the bench, player that stands as one of the best one-on-one defenders against guards.

Weak Points

Olympiacos will need to make an important decision on defense. Does Spanoulis guard Sergio Rodriguez or Ruddy Fernandez. Both tasks are equally difficult for a questionable defender as Vassilis. It is hard to chase Sergio through those multiple screens set by Bourousis and Mirotic. Ruddy Fernandez on the other hand is lot more athletic so there will be situations when he can even play with his back to the rim.

Five players average in double figures for Olympiacos in this season. This means great variety and the that Real Madrid can not clearly predict who will take the lead in one single game. It will most probably be Spanoulis, but Printezis, Perperoglu, Dunston and Loevski are also great scorers.

Our Take

We expect a emotional matchup full of intense moments and although Real Madrid is the clear favorite to take the series even with a score of three to null, we expect from the Reds to fight to their last breath. It will be interesting to see if Olympiacos can steal one game away from home and fight for advantage on their own court.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gM92lc6YGb4