My vote goes to Serbia. Raduljica - Teo connection should make some noise, Serbia plays up to the level defense and will make Italy work hard for their shots. Serbia is doing well when they're dominating the glass and Italy in preparation stages loved to run offense without a single individual being out there for a rebound, losing rebounding to otherwise even potentialy weaker rebounding teams.
Chances for Italy are in Bargnani drawing up Kuzmić/Raduljica out on the lane repeatedly offense after offense, if persistent it could be possible to draw Raduljica out of the game due to defensive issues, Gallinari focusing all of it's strenght on Bjelica. He has the lenght and feet to make it a bit tougher for him, even if he is not some particulary great defender, not forcing up shots by individuals, finding a way to limit or at least try to make it equal in the rebounding department. Italy needs a way to compete with Serbia there, they obviously won't do that from shot selection, their 2nd, third guy in the offensive boards is risky with this Serbian teams, while in defense almost all 5 players should go for a rebound every single time, to keep hopes for a close game.
). This Italy has a huge potential and I easily see them in Rio, maybe even with some medal here. But general rule is O buys tickets, D brings the rings. So when Italy clashes in KO stage with a team ready to harness their fire power that could easily be it for them.