I have to disagree with you.
Luck could really be a factor this time ...... anything could happen at this year's FIBA-Asia .... being grouped with China and lesser-strength teams and a bracket which is not as competitive as the other gives our team a very great opportunity to advance far.
Jordan is not the same team under Palma and is still adjusting under Baldwin.  The financial problems the team is still in is distracting the players.
South Korea is a great team who improved its defense thru Lenny Wilkins but having a former superstar player as its head coach has its drawbacks, there"s trouble in the locker room as Hur Jae is expecting his players to be like him which is creating tensions within.
Iran is now worried as both Kamrami and Bahrami are not 100% fit and is far from the game they expected them to be.
China is badly hit by injuries that befell its players this near to the tournament proper.  They have not played as a complete team since the infamous brawl they had with Brazil.
Lebanon is really in the brink, their star players refuse to suit up, they are still brewaking-in their naturalized player who is more of a Forward than a Center.  Then their financial troubles derailed their training plans.
Japan is a mystery as their coach has not played their Team A as a whole team in public for some time.  The players being out of action for a long time since the JBL season was cancelled after the earthquake and tsunami tragedy could either be a blessing or a dissaster for them.
Qatar except for Ngombo is now a very old line-up. Even though they'll have Leslie as their "new" naturalized player, he is not used of not having other foreign imports playing with him.   
Chinese-Taipei is troubled as they might be without 3 of their dependable bigmen in Wuhan as all of them are nursing an injury.
Syria will be without its Best Player and Top Scorer as he was kicked-out of the team by the new Head Coach and the team members is really distracted with the on-going civil unrest in their country.
But despite these said lucky breaks or circumstances, its up to our team to take advantage of the situation and for our team to cope-up with our own troubles.
But I do like our chances .....