The future of the German NT

[robbe]

Dirk Nowitzki has led Germany to one EC 4th place in 2001, one EC 2nd place in 2005, another 5th place last year, and one WC 3rd place in 2002. Though they are (for being a one-man team and not exactly a basketball nation I guess) not as well respected throughout Europe as other countries, this is quite a record. However, Nowitzki is expected to step down after a possible 2008 Beijing Olympics participation, as is a whole bunch of players being a part of this "golden" German basketball generation.

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Take for example the German NT roster from the EC 2007. One on one, these guys are:
Dirk Nowitzki – PF - 19.06.1978 – Dallas Mavericks: No need for further explanation. He and his mentor Geschwindner had this plan to play every summer until '08, and they've held word up until now. Dirk has stated here and there that he could think about playing till '11 or '13, but I highly doubt it. First because he is looking very tired entering the NBA playoffs or playing in international competition as of late, second because his future teammates simply will not be as good as helpful as they have been in the future.

Patrick Femerling – C - 04.03.1975 – ALBA Berlin: Femerling’s value to this team has been somewhat misjudged in my opinion. Always a good defender and excellent complement to Dirk Nowitzki. He will turn 33 soon, and although he is still a decent players for BBL standards, his career is clearly going downhill. He’s not where he was 5 years ago, and he surely won’t be there in 2009. Will probably step down.

Ademola Okulaja - SF/PF - 10.07.1975 - Brose Baskets: Clearly not his old self. He has been a disappointment for Bamberg this year and is not and never again will be the player he was in 2001. “The Warrior” is no warrior anymore. Should retire from the national team too.

Mithat Demirel – PG - 10.05.1978 – Brose Baskets: Has been useful playing for Germany once in a while, the 2002 WC Quarter Final against Spain for example. But still nothing special, even more so now that his best days are behind him.

Pascal Roller – PG - 20.11.1976 - DB Frankfurt Skyliners: One of the better Point Guards in Germany too. Which doesn’t say anything about whether he is a quality player or not. Had a decent EC 2005. Again, not nearly as good as he was four or five years ago.

Stephen Arigbabu – PF/C - 15.02.1972 - Olimpia Larissa: Hard working player for a handful of minutes and a handful of hard fouls. Quite a body inside. Not exactly a player that everyone will remember, but he’s been useful when he was younger.

Robert Garrett – SG/SF - 18.03.1977 - Brose Baskets: Another role player. Nothing special, but had his moments and should be mentioned.

While Nowitzki, Femerling and Okulaja were the core of this team over the years obviously, the other guys are pure role players.

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Players of that ’07 EC roster that we will probably see again in the future:
Steffen Hamann – PG - 14.06.1981 - Brose Baskets: The best German BBL Point Guard over the years. Good defender and slasher. Clearly excels in Bauermann’s system. Yet he lacks of creativity and a reliable perimeter shot to be considered an even solid European Point Guard. Played poorly in Spain '07.

Johannes Herber - SG/SF - 17.01.1983 - Alba Berlin: Solid role player who had one outstanding game (against Slovenia if I remember correctly) in 2007. Won't take any team to another level. Just solid.

Demond Greene - SG/SF - 15.06.1979 - Brose Bamberg: Good defender, solid oustide shot, limited in his abilities – another solid role player. But as their performances for Brose Baskets are currently showing in Germany: Hamann and Greene might be Germany’s best players at the One and the Two at the moment, but playing together they are clearly not creative enough to break down defences.

Guido Grünheid – SF/PF - 25.10.1982 - Hanzevast Capitals: Solid, hard working guy who needs a lot of self confidence in order to play well. Will hardly be a bigger factor in the future than he was in ’07, when he was the 12th man.

Jan-Hendrik Jagla – C - 25.06.1981 - DKV Joventut: This is the one guy of this bunch that is giving us some hope at last. Showed promise playing for the NT in Spain, and has been playing well for Joventut in both the ACB and the ULEB-Cup. He has certainly developed into a decent player. The thing is that he’s kind of a (very) poor man’s Dirk, so you’ll probably not see him shine with Dirk around, as much as he would without him.

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Then there are (rarely a handful of) guys that have not been called for NT duty yet, but are most likely to join the team in at least 2009, maybe earlier (Ohlbrecht).

Tim Ohlbrecht – PF – 30.08.1988 – Brose Baskets: Maybe Germany’s biggest hope for the future. Had solid performances in the youth tourneys for a very weak German team. Good rebounding, agile, quick, solid midrange jumpshot, but still very slim, erratic on defense, and – I’ll just write it – seems to have a little headcase. Which is maybe down to his youth combined with the fact that he was overhyped after a good BBL Playoff Finals series in ’07. People here tend to overrate big men that are agile and can shoot the basketball for obvious reasons, but in truth, Ohlbrecht is a smaller than small fish compared to other European prospects born ’88 or ’89. He got some minutes for Brose this season. Will be quite interesting to see where the future takes him.

Nicolai Simon – PG/SG – 03.01.1987 – ALBA Berlin: Has the tools to become a solid Point Guard I think. Played quite a lot last year under Rödl, but has not seen much playing time this year under Pavicevic. One of the bigger Point Guard prospects in this country. Decent jumpshot, quite good decision making and calm personality for a guy his young age. But he desperately needs BBL playing time. Now.

Philipp Zwiener – SF – 23.07.1985 – ALBA Berlin: Solid wing player who has been getting some minutes under Pavicevic this season. Does show development, but has to continue in order to be a candidate for the NT.

Yassin Idbihi - PF - 24.07.1983 - Köln 99ers: Hard working big man that possesses some good post moves off both hands and could bring some athleticism to complement Ohlbrecht and Jagla. Is having a decent season for Cologne, coming right out of College.

Further down the road, Cologne's Philip Schwethelm and Tibor Pleiß might become options.

Then there are guys like Oskar Fassler, Marko Buljevic, Johannes Lischka, who could make it some day. Some might mention Bamberg’s Sajmen Hauer, but I don’t agree. Of the already older guys, the tree-like Kirsten Zöllner was the last player cut before Spain. He could become an Arigbabu-type of player, but nothing more in my opinion. Misan Nikagbatse is not that old either, but he tends to not solute problems. He causes them. De Mello (born 1985) might be worth mentioning, but this guy is not too solid also. But he might at least bring in some creativity. Ulm Forward Konrad Wysocki (second in the BBL in Efficiency; born 1980) has made some eyebrows being raised with an excellent 07/08 BBL campaign, but it remains to be seen whether or not he can compete on international level. But that's the case with almost everyone I mentioned here, actually.

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Is there the next Femerling, Okulaja in sight (no, I won’t ask for the next Dirk)? Probably not, Ohlbrecht and Jagla might become solid Big Men though. The real concern is at the positions 1-3 where I just don’t see Germany having player material that can lead the way in the future.

[ArnoldPettybone]

Frankly, I don't think they have much of a future.
They will be fighting for Eurobasket qualification without dirk.
They weren't in that position before he arrived, they had good European players-Koch, Blab, Welp. And they played without there best player in his premium years-Schrempf, and had very decent results.

[Trifilli]

Great post robbe And indeed an interesting topic. The future for the german NT seems to be dark atm.

I definately agree btw that Femerlings value was underrated. He's never been a flashy type of player, a Center with great moves or with a dominant post game. However he's always been a hard worker, a guy for the dirty work, for the defense and for getting the rebounds. Without him the german NT will certainly lack force under the rim on the defensive end.

Btw, a still unmentioned player is Sven Schultze of Snaidero Udine, whos's playing a solid season for the italian side (11.2ppg, 3.3rpg in 23.9mpg). He's born 1978 as well though, and might rather belong to the first than to the 2nd group of players. Who knows though, maybe he continues?

Hamann, Greene, Herber, Grünheid and Jagla as S5 just looks bad, out of those guys only Jagla currently plays on a good european level (and Herber even still recovers from a cruciate ligament rupture). With these 5 guys as the teams main players even a potential qualification to the EC seems to be endangered.

Ohlbrecht has been hyped over and over again, but the kid finally needs to make the next step, he needs to work hard and concentrate on getting better. He doesn't have more time to waste, otherwise his talent will be lost. Either way he's not ready to play on the highest european level atm.

Simon might be a future option for the NT, but he's already 19 and only averaged 2mins in 5 games for Alba this season. He needs playtime soon to develop and doesn't have too much time left either and he's definately not in the position to potentially take over the backup PG spot after the 08 Olympics.
Zwiener turns 23 this summer, and averaged 8:30 mins in 12 games this season. He showed some development, but you can't be a talent forever. And he's no immediate solution for the NT either.

Idbihi should be called up together with Wysocki in case that the aforementioned players indeed step down after this season. However he's no talent any more and could be nothing more than a role player for limited minutes imho. I'd select Wysocki over him though.

Lischka looked like a top talent once. I saw him play two years ago for the first time and he looked really good. Ever since he didn't develop as expected though, turns 19 soon and needs to work more on his game fast in order to make it. Still looks like one of the better talents for the future of the german NT though. All of this applies to his teammate Buljevic as well.

Another potential big man might be Robin Benzing, who currently plays for Langen in the Pro A. He's been on the radar of some european top clubs (Barcelona for example) for quite a while now - however he's extremely skinny of his size and age, does not have the body of other big men of his age and regularly gets destroyed down low in the 2nd german division therefore. Until he really bulks up, adds mass and becomes a serious player down low, one can't even think about him for the NT.

Pleiß could become an option down low, he's still a raw player though, without a polished game, and he currently relies too much on his physical advantages.

There are some other youngsters, with Per Günther being the most mentionable example (PG, Phönix Hagen, born 1988, 15.1ppg and 2.4 apg in 28:48mpg), all of them are still miles away from the top european level though and can't be considered immediate candidates for the NT imho.

So, in conclusion: german basketball fans can only hope that there won't be a mass-retirement of Nowitzki, Femerling, Okulaja, Demirel, Roller, Garrett, Schultze and co. Atm it doesn't seem as if there are even enough role players to fill the gap, let alone players who could possibly lead this team. Things might look a little bit better in 1-2 years (although it'd still be difficult to achieve some solid results), so maybe at least some of the guys continue to play for the NT for that time.

[robbe]

Great addition, Trif.

Yes indeed, I forgot Günther and Schultze. Plus I heard that the younger brother of Sebastian Barth is quite a good player. But then again we're talking about some prospects here. It's not even sure if the'll develop into solid BBL players.

Apart from Jagla, none of these players is playing in a big European league. Up until now, Dirk has always been able to hide the fact that the team has not had enough individual quality, making everyone around him better. Without him, all the weaknesses will be exploited.

If all these players step down, Germany will have a hard time even qualifying for big European championships, I think.

[hotjam_2]

Dirk Nowinski was allready voted MVP way back in the 2002 World Chanpionships, when Germany got 3rd place. We've all heard how basketvall has caught on like wildfire in China, ever since Yao made it big.
Why has'nt the same thing happened in Germany? You would think by now they could produce another dozen or so Dirk prospects

[rikhardur]

Dirk Nowinski was allready voted MVP way back in the 2002 World Chanpionships, when Germany got 3rd place. We've all heard how basketvall has caught on like wildfire in China, ever since Yao made it big.
Why has'nt the same thing happened in Germany? You would think by now they could produce another dozen or so Dirk prospects

I think it all has to do with football. Germany is a football power and most people enjoy football, something which doesn't happen in China.

[xtf_no4]

@robbe

very good listing

however, concerning future German NT players, I don't agree with everybody you are citing.

When you talk about Zwiener, I have some doubts. He will turn 23 this year and still is not a regular contributor for Alba. So will he ver become more than a 12th man for a NT?

About the young guys, the 1989 born generation is very talented what they showed at the U18 Championship this summer.

Most of them will play the NBBL All-Star Game this Saturday which I will cover for my website where you can find also a short recap of all the elected players for that game.

[ArnoldPettybone]

I think it all has to do with football. Germany is a football power and most people enjoy football, something which doesn't happen in China.

That was also the situation 20 years ago, and they still had better players then today like the ones I mentioned above, and about the same results playing without their superstar at his prime. (he only played in the 83 and 85 EC, and already was elected to the tournament team of the latter. at the age of 22...)

[robbe]

Clearly there more popular sports in Germany. There should still be enough material around.

But that is not the decisive point imo. Difficult to bejudge the youth systems that the players come through, but what is definitely eyecatching in German basketball is the reluctance to just throw young players into the cold water at a young age. I mean, they're doing it in Spain and their league is miles ahead of ours in terms of quality of play. Xtf_no4 rightfully doubted that a guy like Zwiener at 22 years of age is still a big talent, I've probably been deceived here by the fact that he is consired to be one of the better talents in Germany. In Germany they in fact consider someone to be a talent up until about 25. Then he plays some minutes for a couple of years, and suddenly everybody realises that he's going to be 30 soon.

Another thing in Germany is that guys want to kiss every rare talent's a**. See Tim Ohlbrecht. He took advantage of an Ensminger injury to have some decent (not outstanding, just decent) games in last years finals. Suddenly everybody tells him how great he is, and as a consequence, the player loses ground contact and asks for wages in his contract talks - this is at least what one hears - that are out of this world. Damn, just give him normal playing time, let him make experiences, let him suffer a bit against Europe's best, and keep it real. There is just no middle way here. A down to earth approach to developing young players is totally missing. It's either future star or bust.

Then of course, when the league opened its gates for US players to flood in, they completely missed the restrictions that are required to ensure homegrown players get their playing time. When they finally did, they started with one German required on a 12-man roster, after that 2, now 3. There still are a lot of teams that have three Germans on roster places 10, 11 and 12 in order not to violate the rules. But those have a hard time getting playing time of course. They started it to late, and not high enough in my opinion.

[DanMajerle]

The answer is Chris Kaman

http://www.basket.de/basket/generated/article/tnt_ussport/2008/01/25/8527200000.html

He has german grandparents and said he could think about playing for german NT.

[Booker-T]

Yes indeed, I forgot Günther and Schultze. (...) But then again we're talking about some prospects here. It's not even sure if the'll develop into solid BBL players.
Apart from Jagla, none of these players is playing in a big European league.

Sven Schultze (pf/sf) plays, just as @Trifilli mentioned, in SerieA, and a very solid season. Maybe, for example if Alba returns to EL (I know it's a kind of weird thought these days...) he'll return to BBL next season. Because of his age (becomes 30 years old this year) surely no young prospect but still someone who could be able to help holding the NT on a certain european level (I hope).

[robbe]

@DM: Would be a "German" solution, as we already brought Julian Sensley and Shawn Bradley, whose grandfather had a German dog, in.

Would probably make us ignore the problems that we have for another couple of years, but it's just not the right way.

Ps: No, I didn't miss the in your post.

@Booker-T: Of course Schultze wasn't related to "prospects". I think everybody in German basketball knows who he is.

[Booker-T]

@robbe
Easy, I did'nt mean to offend, you do a great job here... All I wanted to say is that imho Schultze - in contrast to Okulaja, Demirel, Garrett, Arigbabu - despite his age belongs to the NT, also after the coming summer.

Nicolai Simon – PG/SG – 03.01.1987 – ALBA Berlin: Has the tools to become a solid Point Guard I think. Played quite a lot last year under Rödl, but has not seen much playing time this year under Pavicevic. One of the bigger Point Guard prospects in this country. Decent jumpshot, quite good decision making and calm personality for a guy his young age. But he desperately needs BBL playing time. Now.

Yeah, maybe too calm...
Nico Simon is out of the game now already for several months due tu back problems. He just started getting back to "build-up"-training after having been treated with his problems by the docs. Getting back will take him weeks, if not months. No way he can get decent playing time this season.

[rikhardur]

@DM: Would be a "German" solution, as we already brought Julian Sensley and Shawn Bradley, whose grandfather had a German dog, in.

Would probably make us ignore the problems that we have for another couple of years, but it's just not the right way.

With Sensley (who didn't even knew German am I right?) and Bradley things didn't work out as expected (if anything was to expect actually, although Bradley did stuff a 3-pointer ), but with Kaman it could be a whole different story.

[robbe]

@robbe
Easy, I did'nt mean to offend, you do a great job here... All I wanted to say is that imho Schultze - in contrast to Okulaja, Demirel, Garrett, Arigbabu - despite his age belongs to the NT, also after the coming summer.

No worries, I didn't take it as an offence. Sorry if my post implied the opposite. Just wanted to make clear that I (and probably anyone else) don't see Schultze as a prospect.

With Sensley (who didn't even knew German am I right?) and Bradley things didn't work out as expected (if anything was to expect actually, although Bradley did stuff a 3-pointer ), but with Kaman it could be a whole different story.

You are probably right. Kaman is one of the better centers in the NBA, as from what I've seen. And most importantly, I see him adjusting to international play. But still I would prefer them working on structure, development of young players instead of taking the easy, short-term solution again. Bradley and Sensley have not been a big part of the NT, but the attempt to get those two alone angers me. It's just the wrong way. I hope with all the illusions gone (post-Dirk), there's a different way of doing things in the German NT.