Joško Poljak Fan
Super Moderator
lol, it's not a matter of offending a nation, for god's sake...
Montenegro 22nd is offending the evolution
Early predictions!
- Thread starter Straight forward
- Start date
Montenegro 22nd is offending the evolution
Predictions are like promises. Eventually, most of them will never be fulfilled
never say never!
I predict:
1. Lithuania
2. ...here also would be good
3. and here...
cocky? i don't care - it's only a prediction
robbe
Moderator
Just for fun. After all everyone says "preparation means nothing". Let's look back at these stats when the tournament is finished.
I took the game results on acb.com and adjusted them to the schedule. For example, the 8.22 under pts for/Spain means that the Spanish offense scored 8.2 pts more per game against their opponents than those opponents conceded as average in all their preparation games.
(eliminated Canada and other teams from the list that had enough games to be part of the calculation but don't participate)
It's just preparation though, no statistics can account for the different stages of preparation between the teams and coaching experimentations, player character (like "only performing when it matters") and it's simply not big enough of an issue to account for home court advantage etc and do more complex calculations.
Personally I have Slovenia higher on my list, Greece I liked a lot but they may lack quality to make it past the quarter finals, and Turkey ... no surprise if they suddenly awake.
Also, the Russian frontline is quite something. Matchup nightmares. Few frontcourt can match up with both Khryapa and Kirilenko. And they're defensively capable on top of things.
I took the game results on acb.com and adjusted them to the schedule. For example, the 8.22 under pts for/Spain means that the Spanish offense scored 8.2 pts more per game against their opponents than those opponents conceded as average in all their preparation games.
(eliminated Canada and other teams from the list that had enough games to be part of the calculation but don't participate)
Code:
Team Pts For Pts Ag Pt Diff
Spain 8.22 -8.10 16.32
France 5.17 -8.00 13.17
Greece 3.08 -6.72 9.81
Russia 5.95 -3.63 9.58
Serbia 8.14 1.33 6.81
Lithuania 10.64 3.92 6.72
Italy 5.99 0.30 5.69
Croatia -1.37 -4.17 2.79
Slovenia -3.71 -4.78 1.06
Israel 2.74 3.11 -0.37
Great Britain 5.42 7.27 -1.85
Germany -3.21 -1.10 -2.11
Georgia 5.64 7.96 -2.31
Montenegro 3.62 7.81 -4.20
Ukraine -0.61 4.97 -5.58
Poland -7.35 -0.87 -6.48
FYROM -5.35 1.50 -6.85
Bosnia -9.05 -0.89 -8.16
Turkey -9.15 -0.71 -8.44
Latvia -5.42 4.16 -9.58
Bulgaria -5.60 4.67 -10.27
Belgium -6.29 5.48 -11.77It's just preparation though, no statistics can account for the different stages of preparation between the teams and coaching experimentations, player character (like "only performing when it matters") and it's simply not big enough of an issue to account for home court advantage etc and do more complex calculations.
Personally I have Slovenia higher on my list, Greece I liked a lot but they may lack quality to make it past the quarter finals, and Turkey ... no surprise if they suddenly awake.
Also, the Russian frontline is quite something. Matchup nightmares. Few frontcourt can match up with both Khryapa and Kirilenko. And they're defensively capable on top of things.
OrgoglioSlavo
Member
these ball in europe is ridiculous site
these are hones predcitions
final- spain vs russia
3rd lithuania
4 serbia
5 france
6 slovenia
7 greece
8 italy
9 croatia
10 montenegro
11 turkey (no referees help, no great home support, terrible coach
12 georgia
13 germany (why is everyone loving germany so much, their team mnus nowitzki was the only euro tam to gout in first round in 2010, they are terrible, and nowitzki on his own in eurobasket cant do everything as match in bwko cup showed)
14 poland
15 makedonia
16 Bosna Hercegovina
17 gb (lets be honest, they pushed croatia and serbia and australia which were palying in 2nd gear at best, and still lost giving their all...they actually were better without deng - they should stop wasting our time and go abck to division B or C, the fact they have place in olympics is a scandal)
18) bulgaria
the rest---who cares lol
who does not agree and why?
these are hones predcitions
final- spain vs russia
3rd lithuania
4 serbia
5 france
6 slovenia
7 greece
8 italy
9 croatia
10 montenegro
11 turkey (no referees help, no great home support, terrible coach
12 georgia
13 germany (why is everyone loving germany so much, their team mnus nowitzki was the only euro tam to gout in first round in 2010, they are terrible, and nowitzki on his own in eurobasket cant do everything as match in bwko cup showed)
14 poland
15 makedonia
16 Bosna Hercegovina
17 gb (lets be honest, they pushed croatia and serbia and australia which were palying in 2nd gear at best, and still lost giving their all...they actually were better without deng - they should stop wasting our time and go abck to division B or C, the fact they have place in olympics is a scandal)
18) bulgaria
the rest---who cares lol
who does not agree and why?
I like ACB power rankings much, I just tweaked it a bit. Same top 2. I put same 3th to 7th, but with some permutations. Same 8th to 12th but with some permutations.
1 Spain gold
2 Serbia silver
3 Turkey bronze
4 Russia semifinals
5 Germany quarterfinals
6 Lithuania 2nd phase
7 Slovenia quarterfinals
8 France 2nd phase
9 Greece quarterfinals
10 Montenegro quarterfinals
11 Croatia 2nd phase
12 Italy
13 Macedonia
14 Bosnia & H
15 Great Britain
16 Israel
17 Belgium 2nd phase
18 Georgia
19 Bulgaria
20 Ukraine
21 Finland
22 Poland
23 Portugal
24 Latvia
1 Spain gold
2 Serbia silver
3 Turkey bronze
4 Russia semifinals
5 Germany quarterfinals
6 Lithuania 2nd phase
7 Slovenia quarterfinals
8 France 2nd phase
9 Greece quarterfinals
10 Montenegro quarterfinals
11 Croatia 2nd phase
12 Italy
13 Macedonia
14 Bosnia & H
15 Great Britain
16 Israel
17 Belgium 2nd phase
18 Georgia
19 Bulgaria
20 Ukraine
21 Finland
22 Poland
23 Portugal
24 Latvia
Like I said before predictions in this phase worth a piece of s**t
But to be honest i can't understand why:3 Turkey bronze
11 Croatia 2nd phase
It's incomprehendable to me
If it would be other way arround I would think it is kind of possible, but now - it's some kind of Harry Potter magic to me
Thank you Silvio for the second place, but in reality not putting France, Russia and Lithuania in any predictions in front of Serbia is blasphemy. Also I am not a fan of the Croatian team and I think that they are very limited, but not 11th place limited. They are still better than Montenegro, and can on any given day fight and beat Slovenia, Turkey, Germany and unfortunately without Veličković and Kešelj Serbia as well. And the teams I just listed are too high in the rankings.
My rankings would be:
1. Spain
2-4. France, Russia and Lithuania
5. Serbia
6-7. Slovenia, Croatia
8-9. Turkey, Germany.
Insert Greece anywhere since I dont know their team well and have not seen any of their preparation games.
gravity
Member
i changed my predictions about Turkey then last situation. I think nobody send their "young" players to NBA.
my new prediction between 8th-12th place...
Adon
Active member
You still insist that Germany is a better team than Serbia or France. Intuition is more reliable than the performance in preparation games I guess
Deschain
Member
lol, it's not a matter of offending a nation, for god's sake...
Montenegro 22nd is offending the evolution
"Hmm, Montenegro? That's a new country, I guess they are bad..."
Yes, that's true, on a good day Croatia can win just about any team. But you're looking only one side of medal.
For example, in 2007 Croatia won over Spain, yet lost to Latvia. Lost to Israel, but won France.
Same could happen now, maybe win over Slovenia or Russia ... but also maybe loss to BiH or Macedonia.
With two big differences:
1) System is tricky now. Before it was 3 of 4 teams progresses to 2nd round, now 3 of 6 teams progresses. You lose one game you "should win", and (if tiebreaker is not good for you), you don't get to play Slovenia or Russia in 2nd phase.
2) Before we had good coaches, now we have joke of a coach. If opposing strong team has bad day, still we almost surely lose close games (example vs Serbia 2010)
OrgoglioSlavo
Member
why uis everyone d**k riding germany..it is still germany people, nowitzki is not some superhuman..he will not be playing with terry, kidd etc but benzing and jagla hahaha italy will send them out at the first round, no doubt about it...bargnani is as unguardable as nowitzki at this level, but germany dont have a gallianri or even a belinelli or mancinelli...hell they dont even have a poeta!!
OrgoglioSlavo
Member
i do not agree. it is impossible that spain, lithuania, serbia, france and italy be in top 8
i meant more in terms of quality of teams..ok just replace italy with croatia, thats more or less right
Joke is not the right coach for Croatia, but you are acting like all other teams have Greg Popovich on the bench. I have very mixed feelings about Croatia. On the one side I like a couple of players and on the other I dont like teams without a dominant playmaker. I have a feeling like your team has no head and tail, no distinct roles between players, no definitive leaders, no one through whome the offence goes through. A ball dominant sf or a great back to the basket center that you give the ball to and it opens space for the rest of the team. Its like a badly assembled group of good players that streanghts dont mesh up together well. That is for instance why I have a feeling that Serbia and even Slovenia are ahead of Croatia at the moment even if not that much talented. Simply they have a ball dominant playmaker, and when you dont know what to do with the ball you give it to the dominant center. And you surounded them with average and below average role players. On the other hand with good defence just on pure talent alone (Bogdanović, Tomas, even Simon can go off at any moment, and Tomić and Barać can get in the zone as well) all the teams are beatable (exept for Spain). We will see, predictions are like someone before me said crap. Good luck to you and if you know Bogdanović by any chance tell him to come to Crvena Zvezda, we wont mind
Last edited:
hustlerlt
Member
Nowitzki can win by himself easily.Nobody could guard him in the NBA and it really won't be a difference in this years EC.I can guarantee you,that Germany will pass the group stages together with France and Serbia.Italy is a weak team that has a few good players,but no bench players on their team.
Remember Belgrade 2005? You should.