Now that sports betting is rapidly legalizing in states all across the USA and is pretty much fair game in Canada, you might be wondering about when to bet on the underdog in NBA Matchups. In this article, we will explain a few situations where placing some cash on the NBA lines underdog might be a good idea.

When a Losing Team is Great ATS

You may want to consider taking the underdog when they have a proven track record of getting back door covers. What does this mean?

The Chicago Bulls are a great example at the moment. As of January 18th, 2021, the Chicago Bulls hold a win-loss record of 5-8, and they sit in 11th place in the Eastern Conference. But when it comes to covering the lines that the sportsbooks set, they are 9-4. This means they cover the number 69.2 percent of the time. So, if you had blindly backed the Bulls in their first 13 games this year based on how much you love Zach LaVine or Lauri Markkanen, you’d be well in the green.

In the last 10 games of their schedule, the Chicago Bulls have only closed as favorites once. That game was against the OKC Thunder, where they were listed as -2 favorites. They happened to not cover that number. However, they covered the number as 6.5-point dogs against Dallas, as 12-point dogs against the LA Clippers, as 8.5-point dogs against the LA Lakers, as 7-point dogs against the Sac Kings, as 9.5-point underdogs against the Rip City ‘Zers, and again against Dallas as 4-point dogs.

Yesterday on Monday the 18th, The Bulls played one of the worst teams against the spread. The Houston Rockets are just 36% against the number. So, keeping in mind that the Bulls are the best backdoor cover team in the league and playing the 5th worst ATS team, it should be a sign that this is a game you should dig into and consider betting. After all, the Bulls are listed as 2-point dogs on Monday night’s lines, so we should consider them as live dogs.

When the Betting Line is Soft

The lines could have been set soft, or they could move that way based on public action or sharp money. But what does this mean?

NBA betting lines are set by using power ratings, then adjusted from there based on injuries, personnel issues, momentum, and location. Usually, the lines are pretty much spot on with the power ratings; for example, if the Lakers are rated at 7.7 and they play the Grizzlies -1.0 in Memphis, we would have an initial spread of 8.7 (8.5).

Now, we would give a couple of points back to Memphis if they were scheduled to play at home. I have read some articles that say 3.5 to 4 points is average for home-court advantage, but that is pure BS (pardon our French acronym).

Between 2 and 2.5 points is the real number.

So, let’s give Memphis back 2 points, assuming everyone is healthy, and there are no other issues, the opening points spread should be 6.7 so, it would be fair to see the Lakers favored by either 6.5 or 7 points. But, the public loves Lebron and the Lakers, so if you see that the lines have moved from 7 points to say, 9.5 points, now you have a soft line on the side of the underdog.

It’s been artificially inflated, decreasing value on the LA side but adding value to the Memphis side. Las Vegas books and online shops alike move the lines to try to keep an equal amount of action going both ways. In this situation, the betting line moved in favor of the underdog, so you should bet on the dog.

Reverse Line Movement

Reverse line movement could be an indicator that you should consider handicapping a game out further. We’ll use New York teams as an example because they often see heavy public action regardless of their teams’ actual chance of covering the number or winning the game.

For example, say the New York Knicks open their game on their schedule as -3.5 favorites, and they are getting 75% of the bets going toward their side. Logic would have it that the books should adjust and we should see the Knicks now at say 4.5 or 5.5 point favorites. But what if suddenly the Knicks slide to just 1.5 point favorites?

This is called reverse line movement.

The most common cause of a reversal in the betting lines is because sharp bettors placed large sums of money on the other side. Now, if it was just a regular guy with lots of money, the books would probably just trust their line and leave it as is. But, they pay attention to who is betting and know who’s sharp and who isn’t; they respect sharp action and use it to ‘sharpen’ what was seen by sharps as a soft line.

Timing is essential when you see line reversals, but it’s a key indicator that you should dig deeper. Although a reverse line movement could happen the other way around, it’s usually moving toward the underdog, as the public is rarely hot on the dog.