On June 18th, the series between the Philadelphia 76ers and Atlanta Hawks continues where the Hawks have a surprising 3-2 series lead after the Sixers blew a 26-point lead.

At that price, it looks like the public loves the 76ers to win the series. That said, the bookies don’t think too poorly of the Sixers either, considering the opening odds were Philadelphia to win the series at -175. But are they getting too much love?

After all, the odds for Friday’s game are close. The Sixers are just 1.5-point favorites, and the simulations at Sportsline are giving a moneyline win for the ATL Hawks an A rating.

Historical Data Comparison

There is actually some pretty convincing data to support a really close game between the Hawks and Sixers in Game 3 vs. the Sixers:

• Atlanta is 65% against the spread as an underdog or pick’em and a whopping 70% against the spread as a home underdog. The Philadelphia 76ers have a 14-10-2 record as an away favorite, covering the spread 58.3% of the time. And as a favorite, the 76ers win 79.0% of their games.
• When the Hawks have had two to three days of rest, they win 54.5% of the time and cover the point spread the same amount. Conversely, when the 76ers are on two to three days of rest, they win 58.3% of the time and cover the number 54.5% of the time.
• After a win, the 76ers win the following game 69.8% of the time. After a loss, the Hawks win 56.2% of the time.
• As a favorite, the 76ers win 79.0% of their games.
• In playoff games this season, the Philadelphia 76ers are 4-3 ATS for 57.1%, and the Atlanta Hawks are 5-2 ATS for 71.4%

The BPI Factor

Right now, the Philadelphia 76ers are considered the third best-rated team in the league. Their current BPI rating is 5.0, most of it coming from their defensive ability. The Atlanta Hawks are rated 2.0. These numbers line up quite nicely with the opening point spread for Game 3. After all, the difference between the two power ratings is 3, and if we give the Hawks 2 points for home court, we are left with 1. So, there is a little bit of value in taking the Hawks to cover the spread of 1.5 in Game 3. In previous seasons with full attendance, the playoff home-court advantage was worth a little more than 4 points, but these are strange times. With hardly anyone in the stands, it’s simply not worth that much, so we are splitting the difference.

The focus on Ben Simmons

Though both Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons both made the NBA All-Star Game this season, it’s been clear early on that MVP runner up Embiid is the primary star on the team. Even with Embiid averaging 32 points, 13 rebounds and 4.6 assists in the first five games, the Sixers have come up short. Some blame and pressure can be placed on the Cameroonian center’s shoulders if it wasn’t for the fact that Simmons has severely-under-performed.

Not only has his stats been underwhelming (11.6 points, 8.4 assists, and 5.4 rebounds) and his free throw percentage has been atrocious at 30.8%, but his performance and impact is being countered by Trae Young’s numbers, confidence and leadership:

What makes this particular matchup so much fun is the fact that despite holding the same fundamental role on their team, Simmons and Young are polar opposites on two separate ends of a long and increasingly complicated spectrum.

That’s all to say that Trae is lifting up the Hawks when they’ve needed him while Simmons has all but disappeared on his team; particularly in crucial fourth quarter when the Sixers needed another player to step up. This is all made worse when Simmons is being guarded by a much-smaller and not-nearly-as-strong Young and Lou Williams.

The Second Half Factor

Right now, the Philadelphia 76ers are the hottest team in the last two quarters in each game. So far, they have covered the number in the second half in six out of their seven playoff games this season. Meanwhile, the Hawks are beneath the 50% line at 3-4 in the second half. On top of this, over the last three games, Philadelphia has outscored the Hawks 65 to 50.7 and precisely 61 to 47 in Game 2 and 70 to 54 in Game one against ATL..

The second half is the direction I would take with betting lines for this game. I just can’t make a clear case for the spread either way. This one should be within a point or two in the final seconds, and a missed or made free throw will be the deciding factor between winning or losing your bet.

However, the Philadelphia 76ers have found a second wind in the postseason towards the end of the game and are outsourcing their opponents by a significant amount in the second half. Take the Sixers to cover the second-half points spread as it’s the line where we find definitive value.

Remember, when it comes to betting on sports, you are not betting for or against a team; rather, you are betting against the lines set by the bookmakers. In the case of Game 3 of this series, the sportsbooks have the full-game ATS line dialed in, so I’m not going to risk it as it’s a coin flip. I’m putting my hard-earned cheddar on the second half. Of course, this is as long as we don’t see some crazy high line.