As fans of the NBA, the 2019 NBA Finals are like we’d hoped; highly competitive with each team taking a win.
Now the series heads to Oracle Arena in Oakland, but that obviously doesn’t mean the Warriors are going to get the automatic win and the Raptors are going to roll over. As great as the Warriors have been, they’ve also proven to be vulnerable at home, especially against the point spread and the Toronto Raptors beat the Golden State Warriors in Oakland (without Kawhi Leonard) already in the regular season.
If you love to bet on sports, the Warriors are listed as 5.5-point favorites as of this post. Let’s breakdown the match-up and see if we can’t give you everything you need to make the most accurate prediction.
How Will Injuries Impact the Warriors Chances?
You can’t have a discussion about Game three odds without talking about injuries. Mostly these injuries impact the Warriors side of the coin. Already without Kevin Durant for the first two games, Golden State is working overtime trying to not only ensure that KD comes back as soon as he is comfortable, but going into game three, they also have to make certain that Andre Iguodala is still good to go after he visibly injured his leg in game one of the series. Still, Iguodala played in game two and came up big with a huge three-pointer that put the game two out of reach. With approximately three days of rest,we’re confident that he’ll be more than fine for game three.
That’s not the case with Klay Thompson who came up lame after taking a bump from Danny Green in game two and ended up landing awkwardly that caused Thompson to leave the game for good. As of this post, he’s questionable for game three, but he still has 24 hours+ to heal that leg and if we know Klay, if he can play, he’ll play.
A Warriors who won’t be playing and likely done for the series is Kevon Looney. He took a nasty spill in game two and is out indefinitely with a strained collar bone. We know all the news will be about Durant, Klay and Iguodala, but Looney has played amazingly for the Warriors and a core foundational player that has more than helped get the Warriors to the position they’re in now. He might not be as important as the aforementioned GSW stars, but without Looney, the Warriors’ bench gets that much thinner.
NBA Finals Game 3 Overview
Surprisingly enough, the first two games of the series went exactly the opposite of how I thought they would. We figured that Golden State would win Game 1 and lose Game 2. Since the Dubs were at that point, an astounding 18-1 (now 18-2) in NBA Playoff series Game 1 scenarios.
However, the Raptors opened up their home-stand with talons bared and hunting as a pack. Led by Pascal Siakam‘s transcendent performance, they took a decisive 118-109 victory that not only made everyone question whether the Warriors were up to the task but also covered the 1.5-point spread set in Vegas.
In Game 2 Golden State bounced back with both a win and a backdoor cover of the 2.5-point number, despite Stephen Curry felling under the weather and a slow start.
So, Boogie is back, but the Warriors got a scare with Klay Thompson’s spread-eagle three-pointer landing that sent him to the locker room with ‘hamstring tightness.’ Will Thompson be 100 percent for Game 3? That remains to be seen. With Durant still questionable on his return, losing Thompson or even a reduced Thompson will be devastating to the Warriors.
The Warriors must keep the momentum rolling and take Game 3 at home. Then if the Raps do go down two to one … they are stuck playing Game 4 and the possibility of going down three to one. This would be a similar situation as both the Sixers and Bucks series’. But let’s make one thing clear: this is Golden State.
That said, Kevin Durant might not be there. Thompson may not be there or may be less than 100%. Steph Curry might still be sick, so if there is any time for a team to take a home game off of the Warriors, it’s Game 3.
But here is a contradictory fun fact. The Warriors have won 32 of 34 when Curry plays and Durant is not on the court.
The 2019 NBA Finals Series by the Numbers
At home, the Dubs average 117.5 points per game on offense and allow 111.3 per game on defense. On the road, the Raps score 111.7 points per game on offense and allow 108.33 on defense.
We see that the Raptors average score on the road falls directly in line with what the Warriors defense allows. Defensively the Raptors are three points better even in a road vs. home situation. However, the Dubs score almost six points more per game, putting them at a 3-point total advantage. We believe that the 5.5 point spread is a little much, especially with KD out and Thompson questionable., but even with those two out, the franchise has the luxury of leaning on four other NBA All-Stars in Curry, Cousins, Iguodala and Draymond Green.
With a couple days of rest and knowing his team needs him more than ever, we predict Curry will come out shooting. That along with home court and a ridiculous roster of stars and bench players to fill in the gaps, we think the Warriors will win this game, but the Raptors will keep it within 6-10 points.
