Nikola Jokić has reclaimed the top spot on ESPN’s Kia MVP Ladder after stellar early-season performances, surpassing Jayson Tatum and Anthony Davis. Despite concerns of “voter fatigue,” Jokić is making a strong case for his third consecutive MVP award, averaging 29.7 points (5th in NBA), 11.7 assists (1st), and 13.7 rebounds (1st) per game.

Notably, Jokic has achieved six triple-doubles in 10 games, including a historic performance against Dallas with 37 points, 15 assists, and 18 rebounds—the first such stat line in NBA history. Jokić also set an NBA record with 297 points, 117 assists, and 137 rebounds in the first 10 games, all while leading Denver during injuries to key teammates Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon.

Too Early MVP Candidates Predictions: It’s Shai vs. Jokic

Last season, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander finished second in MVP voting last season and passed Nikola Jokic as the favorite to win the award just last week. Since then, Jokic has once again overtaken the Canadian as the favorite (+220), but the race remains incredibly close with Alexander sitting at +250 odds.  Alexander is looking to become the first Canadian to win the award since Steve Nash, who won back-to-back awards in 2004-05 and 2005-06. He has an extremely tough task at hand competing with Jokic, who has been awarded the MVP three times in the past four years. 

Nikola Jokic It’s ridiculous: Jokic is currently leading the NBA in assists (11.7) and rebounds (13.7) per game while averaging the fourth most points per game (29.7). He is looking to join Lebron James and Wilt Chamberlain as a four-time award winner, and he is still chasing Michael Jordan and Bill Russell with five, and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar with six. If Jokic were to win, he would join Jordan and Russell as the only two players in league history to win MVP four times in five seasons. He has a slight lead over Alexander after scoring four triple doubles in a row, putting him at six on the season in ten games. The Serbian was also one assist and one rebound shy of a triple double on two occasions, scoring over 20 points in all but one game including four 30 plus and two 40 plus point efforts. The odds will shift as the season progresses, but everything looks set up for Jokic to win back-to-back awards for the second time in his career. 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander  Gilgeous-Alexander took his game to the next level over the past two seasons, making the All-Star team and finishing top five in MVP each of the past two seasons. As last season’s runner up, he is once again the second most likely player to win the MVP award for 2024-25 season. After scoring the second most points in a game this season his last time out with 45, Alexander is averaging 27.8 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 6.5 assists. What moves him closer to Jokic is the fact that his OKC Thunder is tied for first in the Western Conference and are the experts’ favorites to come out of the west. Shai ranks fourth in defensive rating this season, while Jokic is outside of the top 25. It’s important to note that Jokic finished fourth in this category last year, and his team is only slightly behind the Oklahoma City Thunder, with the Denver Nuggets sitting at 7-3. The odds might be close, but Jokic still looks like the clear favorite, with the main argument for the case of betting on Alexander being voter fatigue. 

Jayson Tatum After Jokic and Alexander, there is more a drop off when it comes to our next candidate Jayson Tatum, who sits at +550 odds. That’s not to say that Tatum isn’t great and extremely motivated even after he led the Boston Celtics to the 2024 NBA Championship, but he is still chasing a league MVP award, finishing in the top six each of the past three seasons. Working in his favor is the fact that his team is favored to repeat as NBA Champions and finish with the best regular season record, but similarly to Alexander, he trails far behind Jokic in rebounds and assists which are extremely important categories. The forward is tied for fourth in average points this season with Jokic (29.7), while averaging 7.5 rebounds, and 5.3 assists. He has six 30 plus point efforts, while also ranking thirteenth in defensive rating. Coming into his last game he had scored 28 or more points in seven straight, and he has failed to pass the 20 point threshold only once this season. 

Luca Doncic There is a 300-point drop off in odds between Alexander and Tatum, and 200-point gap between Tatum and Luca Doncic who is sitting at +750. Similarly, to our other two candidates chasing Jokic, Doncic is still searching for his elusive first MVP award. Since joining the league and winning the rookie of the year award, Doncic has been an All-star and an MVP contender each season, finishing top eight each year and top five three times. Last season was his highest MVP finish as the third highest vote-getter, carrying his team to the NBA Finals on one leg. This season the Dallas Mavericks have gotten off to a modest 5-5 start, but they still rank as the fourth most likely team to take home the NBA Championship behind the Celtics, Thunder, and New York Knicks. Doncic led the league in average points this past year but ranks sixth this season just behind Jokic and Tatum. He is averaging 28.5 points, 8.1 rebounds, and ranks ninth in assists averaging 7.9. Despite him sitting at fourth most likely in MVP odds, we are just over ten games into the season, and I still view Doncic as the player most likely to overtake Jokic as the MVP favorite come seasons end.