By Alexander Chan

• The Dallas Mavericks have already overachieved this season after missing the postseason for three straight seasons. They are currently the seventh seed in the Western Conference and are effectively a lock to make the 2020 NBA playoff bracket. The Mavericks will not be a pushover either. Against the right opponent, Dallas is capable of springing a first-round upset.

• The Mavericks are led by second-year superstar Luka Doncic. The 21-year old Slovenian is already a legitimate MVP candidate and had posted the fourth best player efficiency rating among qualifying players before the suspension of the NBA season.

• The Mavericks boast a supporting cast filled with players who can explode offensively. Mavericks’ center Kristaps Porzingis was arguably playing the best basketball of his career following his return from an injury that sidelined him for 10 games in the middle of the season. Seth Curry and Tim Hardaway Jr. have 28 combined 20-point games this season.

• The Mavericks’ style of play is also conducive to a first-round upset. The Mavericks rank second in terms of average three-point field goals per game. However, Dallas only played at the 18th fastest pace in the league. That shows the Mavericks will be a team that can hit perimeter shots even when the game inevitably slows down in the playoffs.

• The Mavericks can absolutely prevail in a playoff series if they win enough games to secure a first-round matchup against the Utah Jazz, Oklahoma City Thunder, or Denver Nuggets.

Quality of the Mavs’ supporting cast

There are very few second-year players who have accomplished as much as Luka Doncic has in his sophomore season. The 21-year old all star ranks sixth in points per game, fourth in assists per game, and first in offensive rating among qualifying players in the NBA. The 2018-2019 rookie of the year has certainly taken the leap to superstardom.

However, the Mavericks’ supporting case is what makes Dallas especially dangerous in the playoffs. Though they’ll really miss Dwight Powell, the team has Dorian Finney-Smith, Porzingis, and Hardaway Jr. whom all ranked in the top 10 with Doncic in offensive rating.

Porzingis elevated his level of play following his return from a 10-game absence in the middle of the season. In the last 20 games that Porzingis played before the suspension of the season, he averaged 22.3 points and 9.6 rebounds per game.

The potential of Seth Curry and Hardaway Jr. to take over offensively is another asset for a playoff run. Curry and Hardaway Jr. have a combined 28 20-point games this season. The Mavericks have the talent and a roster that can win games even if Doncic has an off night.

The Mavs have played well against all their opponents this year straight up and even against the spread. The Mavericks are one of the best NBA picks ATS this season covering 54% of their games with a 35-29-3 record. Taking a look at how teams stack up against NBA spreads can be a good indicator of how they will play in the postseason. 

Dallas is Built For A Postseason Upset

The Mavericks are a team that can score at will without relying upon fast breaks or cheap points. The Mavericks ranked third in points per game, second in three-point field goals per game, and first in offensive efficiency. What’s especially impressive about these statistics is that Dallas obtained them despite playing at a relatively slow pace. The Mavericks ranked just 18th in pace. The Mavericks have proven that they are capable of scoring efficiently in the half-court. Dallas is a team that can avoid the fate of previous run-and-gun teams in the playoffs where the game is inevitably more half-court oriented and slower. 

Looking Ahead

The Mavericks had the third-best point differential and road record in the Western Conference before the season’s suspension. Dallas showed throughout the season that they can win anywhere. The relocation of the remainder of the NBA season to Orlando should not faze a team as road-tested as the Mavericks.

The Los Angeles Lakers, Los Angeles Clippers, and Houston Rockets are all probably too talented and experienced for the Mavericks to beat in a playoff series this season. However, bettors should strongly consider wagering on the Mavericks to pull off a first-round upset if they can secure a match up against the Jazz, Nuggets, or Thunder. This is a team that has out played their potential all season. Preseason the book makers set the NBA over under wins for the Mavs at 40.5 wins, they were already at 40 wins when the season stopped. Against those three teams listed above, the Mavericks would have the best player in the series, a more offensively gifted supporting cast, and a playing style that is built for playoff success.