Dallas Mavericks, Golden State Warriors, NBA, NBA Playoffs

Dallas Mavericks are 2-6 in NBA Playoff games when Luka Doncic scores 40+ points

Sometimes the box score paints an accurate picture of what happened during the game and why it resulted the way it did, and sometimes numbers can be misleading. In the age of data-driven basketball, television analysts, general managers, team executives and especially social media don’t always factor in all the intangibles that can happen throughout an NBA game.

That’s how we’re viewing the stat that when Luka Doncic scores 40 or more points in an NBA Playoff game, the Dallas Mavericks are 2-6.

With eight games, there’s likely some correlation to the fact that if Luka is having a big scoring night the Mavericks don’t play as well, but I’d wager if you knew that Luka was going to score 45 points in the next Mavs game, you would bet that the Mavericks would win. I mean no bet is risk free; risk-free bets aren’t always completely “risk-free”, so pay attention to the terms of Michigan sportsbook promotions as well as other rules that gambling sites claim.

When Luka Wins, The Mavs Lose

As mentioned, Luka has lost 75% of the time when he goes for 40 or more points, including the last four playoff games. Here’s the eight games in which Luka has scored forty or more points in his short NBA postseason career.

Luka 40 point playoff games
Year Round Player W/L Pts Opponent Score
2020 1st round Luka Doncic L 42 Los Angeles Clippers 110-118
2020 1st round Luka Doncic W 43 Los Angeles Clippers 135-133
2021 1st round Luka Doncic L 44 Los Angeles Clippers 108-118
2021 1st round Luka Doncic W 42 Los Angeles Clippers 105-100
2021 1st round Luka Doncic L 46 Los Angeles Clippers 111-126
2022 Semis Luka Doncic L 45 Phoenix Suns 114-121
2022 WCF Luka Doncic L 42 Golden State Warriors 117-126
2022 WCF Luka Doncic L 40 Golden State Warriors 100-109

 

This “stat fact” is certainly off for a number of factors.

Even though Doncic is a shoot-first, ball-dominant playmaker for the Mavs, it’s clear that he needs to be aggressive for the Mavericks to have a chance to win. Especially in the three games that the Mavs have lost in the 2022 NBA Playoffs, Luka is the only one that can create his shot on any consistent basis.

The Dallas Mavericks wouldn’t be where they are without the likes of Jalen Brunson, Maxi Kleber, Spencer Dinwiddie, Dorian Finney-Smith and Reggie Bullock. However as much as the surrounding cast are respectable players, no one thought that this roster composition was going to make the Western Conference Finals.

The Mavericks peaked against the Phoenix Suns in the Western Semifinals and have looked lost, fatigued and indecisive against a playoff-tested, resilient, and powerful Golden State Warriors system. With players like Kleber, Bullock and Dwight Powell struggling to do what they do best and Dinwiddie a wild card from night-to-night, Luka has to take control and take shots when the other Mavs players can’t, won’t or hesitant to take.

Yes, the Dallas Mavericks are 2-6 when Luka scores 40 plus, but often it’s needed. This is definitely a stat that doesn’t tell the full story.

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