January 18, 2019

Can the Golden State Warriors continue to dominate in 2018-19 and beyond?

2018/06/11 12:11 pm 12:11 pm12:11 pm0 0 comments

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Can Warriors Continue to Dominate?

The 2018 NBA Finals were a bit of a disappointment for basketball fans looking for a competitive series. It didn’t just look too easy for the Golden State Warriors in the championship round; it was too easy. The Town swept the Cleveland Cavaliers in what is now only the ninth ever NBA Finals where there was a lopsided 4-0 sweep.

Unfortunately for the Cavaliers franchise, they were on the receiving end of two of these sweeps. And to add salt to the wound, the last time an NBA team was swept in the Finals, it was another LeBron-led Cavs team that was rocked by the San Antonio Spurs back in 2007.

Odds, Implied Probabilities for NBA Season 2018-19

Golden State has definitely upped the ante for what needs to happen this off-season while opponents are going to have to find a solution to combat the super-power that is the Warriors. Though Golden State has some work to do in terms of shoring up their aging bench, personality management and high expectations, but that’s all first-world problems. Right now, the Warriors are looking like unstoppable robots that have the championship algorithm dialed in.

What do the powers that be in Las Vegas think about the next season? When we reviewed sportsbetting ag, one of the top online basketball outlets, we found that Golden State is the odds-on favorite to win again in 2019. No surprise there. Here is a look at the top-10 teams on the early NBA Futures Odds for the 2018/2019 season:

  • Golden State: +120 (45.5%)
  • Houston +450 (18.2%)
  • Philadelphia +500 (16.7%)
  • Boston Celtics + 650 (13.3%)
  • Los Angeles Lakers + 1400 (6.7%)
  • San Antonio Spurs +2000 (4.8%)
  • Cleveland Cavaliers +2500 (3.8%)
  • Miami Heat +5000 (2.0%)
  • New Orleans Pelicans +5000 (2.0%)
  • Oklahoma City Thunder +5000 (2.0%)

Our 2018-19 NBA Outlook

Beyond the fact that the Warriors are favored to get the three-peat next season, two other factors jump out at me. Number one: the Cavaliers drop significantly down the line. They were #1 on the odds-boards in the Eastern Conference for all of the 2017/2018 season. Where the Cavs end up at the beginning of the season will depend on where LeBron ends up.

Number two: The LA Lakers are suddenly on the board as the #5 most likely team to win the NBA title? OK. This is huge because I have to assume it means that the sportsbooks in Vegas and around the world believe that LA is where Lebron will land. Will he stay in The Land, go to La La Land, or elsewhere?

Can Luke Walden’s group of young talent, loaded with an inability to play defense become a contender with the addition of the best player over the last decade? Can the Lakers actually challenge for the Western Conference? Not, likely. So far, it is looking like Golden State is going to stay, for the most part, intact. And we know that if there is one team that can beat them right now, it is the Rockets. Houston had an epic run and could have knocked off GSW —perhaps— had Chris Paul not gone down with an injury.

Rumors are already churning in the mill that the Rockets will have to offer a max contract to CP3 if they want to resign him. I have to believe that the Houston organization will do everything they can to keep their 2019 unit as close as possible to the team we saw in 2018.

As you know, it’s about more than just putting the best player together on one team; there’s the intangible dynamics aspect that is the major factor behind NBA championship teams. Take the Lakers team that teamed four Hall of Famers in 2004 when Kobe Bryant and Shaquille O’Neal came together with Karl Malone and Gary Payton. They steamrolled the competition then lost the championship to a Detroit Pistons team that blitzed them. Detroit was a better team and chemistry, and without one Hall of Famer on the roster.

With that said, I believe the Rockets do have that intangible thing with their current nucleus of players. I don’t believe anyone in the East can take down the Warriors in the best of seven right now … but the Houston Rockets, if they keep their roster intact and stay healthy … they might be able to.

 

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