WC 2019 Power Rankings

[Steadysoul]

You can pretty much eliminate more than half of the initial 35 players named in the USA pool.

Victor Oladipo, and John Wall due to injury.

Cousins, Anthony Davis, Durant, Kyrie, Kawhi, Khris Middleton, Klay Thompson, Kemba Walker, Tobias Harris and Jimmy Butler due to contract situations.

Stephen Curry, LeBron, Harden and Westbrook and Paul George, using history as a guide. This caliber of player doesn’t participate in this tournament unless it’s early in their careers.

The Event is so late in the summer that it's pushing back the start of the season. If those contracts get worked out early they may not be an issue at all.

[Steadysoul]

Opinions on specific rankings are pretty meaningless until we see the rosters. Greece with no Giannis? Serbia with no Jokic? I’d just stick with tiers until we know more about rosters.

NBA players have had a pretty poor turnout rate the last few years too, so who really know what Australia and Canada will show up with? Both country’s talent pools are top 4 in my opinion, but that doesn’t matter if guys don’t show up. Don’t underestimate the pressure NBA clubs and agents on putting on guys to not play FIBA nowadays.
Giannis with a deep playoff run? Jokic too with all his little injuries and history of not playing. Gobert too? The Gasols at their age?- anyone this there is more than a 50/50 chance of any of these guys playing?



Without knowing rosters I’d tier them up like this:

Tier 1:
USA

Tier 2:
Australia
Canada
France
Greece
Lithuania
Serbia
Spain

Tier 3:
Russia
Italy
Turkey
Germany
Czech Republic
Brazil
Argentina.
Montenegro

Tier 4
Poland
Dominican Rebublic
Puerto Rico
Venezuela
New Zealand
China

Tier 5:
Angola
Japan
Nigeria
Senegal
Philippines.
Tunisia
Iran
Korea.
Cote d'Ivoire
Jordan

We should probably wait until we see how they do before putting Canada so high up. It's all based of potential. Lets see some actual success first.

[mojo13]

We should probably wait until we see how they do before putting Canada so high up. It's all based of potential. Lets see some actual success first.

I’m fairly confident. I’ve seen Canada enough over the years.
We mowed through the 2015 FIBA America’s by 20-40 point margins only to choke with a super young team versus Venezuela. That was a much lesser team than we will likely be this summer. The core guys are so much more experienced.
We cruised through the Olympic qualfier only to fall a little short against a strong French team. Also handled a number of secondary euro teams in warm up games like Italy, Croatia and Slovenia. Again that was a much lesser team than we can floor this summer.
We had a few nba players show up last summer for the WC qualifiers and beat Brazil quite easily. Really the teams were on two different levels. And even without NBA we crushed Brazil in Brazil this past December.

And I am pretty sure we will have 2 to 4 European based players as we understand what they bring to the table with fiba experience and we know not all 13 nba players will show up or are even the best players. Depending on roster mix we will see a few of Kevin Pangos, Melvin Ejim, Kyle Wiltjer, Phil Scrubb, Tommy Scrubbor Brady Heslip.

I don’t think anyone really knows about Canada and I expect anything from a medal to missing the quarterfinals. Depends on who shows up, chemistry, draw, matchups etc. I’d rather we not bring in NBA guys who don’t know the team or system as well like Trey Lyles or maybe even Andrew Wiggins.

[usagre]

The Event is so late in the summer that it's pushing back the start of the season. If those contracts get worked out early they may not be an issue at all.

That might open the door for guys like Middleton, Kemba, and Tobias Harris but you can forget about Kawhi, A.D., Kyrie and Durant. That quality of player at their stage of their careers never participates in the Worlds, only Olympics.

[usagre]

I’d rather we not bring in NBA guys who don’t know the team or system as well like Trey Lyles or maybe even Andrew Wiggins.

There’s not really a team or system to know. Your top available players (Joseph, Murray, Wiggins, Olynyk and Thompson) have never really played as a unit together anyway. Thompson and Joseph were on ‘16 team but not other 3, and Joseph, Wiggins, Olynyk were on ‘15 team but not other 2. Also consider that they were all a lot younger players three and four years ago. You’re starting from scratch with your best possible team. There’s a camp, exhibition games and preliminary games in order to build a team that can make a deep run.

[mojo13]

There’s not really a team or system to know. Your top available players (Joseph, Murray, Wiggins, Olynyk and Thompson) have never really played as a unit together anyway. Thompson and Joseph were on ‘16 team but not other 3, and Joseph, Wiggins, Olynyk were on ‘15 team but not other 2. Also consider that they were all a lot younger players three and four years ago. You’re starting from scratch with your best possible team. There’s a camp, exhibition games and preliminary games in order to build a team that can make a deep run.

I disagree. TKelly Olynyk, Dwight Powell, Cory Joseph, Tristan Thompson, Khem Birch and Dillon Brooks have been very involved the last few years. That’s the core to draw on with the Qualfier core of Ejim, Pangos, the Scrubb brothers, Wiltjer, Heslip etc.
Jamal Murray, Shai Gilgeous Alexander, RJ Barrett, Chris Boucher have all played with the senior team at least once in the last couple years and should be familiar with the coaches, system and team mates. But yes, not everyone has played together all at once recently.

Wiggins and Stauskas have not played since 2015 and Trey Lyles has never played at the senior level.


last summer I believe we had Joesph, Olynyk, Powell, Birch, Thompson, Brooks, Pangos and Barrett all together - so that’s a good start. We are behind other countries but not starting from scratch. Management has been trying to put a consistent system in place for a half decade now at least. Last summer Chris Boucher didn’t make the team as the coaches said he hadn’t had enough time with the program to know their system. It’s also why some other NBA player probably won’t be missed (like Wiggins, Lyles or Stauskas) and we could be better off with Euro pros more FA
familiar with the program.
To me Jamal Murray is a such a key piece and my main worry about deciding to not play or not being familiar enough if he does play. I’m sort of indifferent in Wiggins plays.

[ja.he]

If Canada sends these 9 as their core rotation they can be a medalist in my opinion.

C. Joseph. /. Gilgeous-Alexander
J. Murray
A. Wiggins/. Stauskas
K. Olynyk /. D. Powell
T. Thompson / T. Lyles

No Barrett? The guy is a projected lottery pick in nba together with Zion and he can be a good prospect for Canada because of his potential and youthfulness.

[Steadysoul]

No Barrett? The guy is a projected lottery pick in nba together with Zion and he can be a good prospect for Canada because of his potential and youthfulness.

Rookies don't usually participate and considering how late in the summer it is I would not be shocked if it overlapped with Summer league.

[Straight forward]

Rookies don't usually participate and considering how late in the summer it is I would not be shocked if it overlapped with Summer league.

And he's a kid never seen real PRO basketball, LOL.

[mojo13]

And he's a kid never seen real PRO basketball, LOL.

Although I agree with your point and Steadysoul above - RJ Barrett played for Canada in a qualifier window and looked fine starting on a team with NBA players. He put up 14 and 15 points vs USVI and DR.

I don’t think he will play (but you never know as he is so tied to the system - his dad is the GM)
Regardless he could deserve to be there. I’d rather, go with a season euro vet, but the average idiot fan in Canada thinks RJ is already the best Canadian player. How quickly they forget Wiggins and Anthony Bennett.

But to laugh him off seems shortsighted. What other country wouldn’t promote the reigning u19 MVP and top 3 NBA draft pick to their senior team? If only as a role player? Not many I would guess.

[mojo13]

If Canada sends these 9 as their core rotation they can be a medalist in my opinion.

C. Joseph. /. Gilgeous-Alexander
J. Murray
A. Wiggins/. Stauskas
K. Olynyk /. D. Powell
T. Thompson / T. Lyles

Usagre - here is my opinion on the most likely Canadian roster. There is a core group of guys that have been heavily involved over the last three years, that I think we can count on assuming no injuries or contract disputes. Then there are some of the younger guys that seem 50-50 due to stage of career and/or contracts and then a few who I am doubtful about due to recent history.

Very Likely - all guys who have played or participated in camps multiple times over the last few years and are vocally supportive of Team Canada on social media and/or publicly said they intend to play:

Cory Joseph - is a FA this summer. Should be signed in time.
Dillon Brooks - But is currently dealing with a season ending foot injury and uncertain if he will play. Should be healed by June, but who know if he is ready for the WC or the Grizzlies want him to play. Also a FA.
Tristan Thompson
Kelly Olynyk
Dwight Powell
Khem Birch - Will be a FA this summer.
Chris Boucher

And the foreign pros:
Melvin Ejim
Kevin Pangos
Kyle Wiltjer
Phil Scrubb
Thomas Scrubb
Brady Heslip

I am fairly sure most of these guys should be available, barring injuries. The bulk of the roster will come from this, supplemented by a few of the guys below.


50/50 - guys I am not certain about. The desire to play seems there (all publicly shown support), but other circumstances can easily prevent it:

Jamal Murray - poor participation the last couple years (lots of small little injuries in the offseason), but publicly said he wants to play. I am still skeptical because of his contract situation - still on his rookie deal and a big, big one is coming up.
Nik Stauskas - Hasn't played since 2015, but a couple months ago publicly said he wants to play this summer. Will be a FA and is hanging onto the NBA by a thread.
Shai Gilgeous Alexander - played in the Olympic Qualifier in 2016, said he wants to play in the WC but I hear the Clippers usually push against their players playing.
RJ Barrett - as a NBA rookie, I'm not sure he plays, but he is very tied into Team Canada.
Tyler Ennis - recovering from a very bad leg injury


Probably not, but you never know:
Andrew Wiggins - not sure he is interested or if the others guys even want him there.
Trey Lyles - Has not ever played for the SMNT.
Andrew Nicholson - Strangely didn't play in any Qualifier window when guys in China did seem available, but I think he was at camp last summer.
Also doubtful any of this years other likely NBA draft picks play (Brandon Clarke, Nickeil Alexander Walker or Luguentz Dort).


And there is a huge pool of other foreign pros, or G-league guys who have been involved that would be too impact but could be a role player. Joel Anthony, Anthony Bennett, Xavier Rathan Mayes, Aaron Best, Naz Mitrou Long, Conor Morgan etc.


So in summary - I think we will be fine up front, but am concerned a little about our guards as there is more uncertainty there. But I do think we will see 3-4 euro pros playing....most likely Kevin Pangos, Phil Scrubb and Melvin Ejim.

Still...the time commitment is going to be a big ask. Every country is going to be looking at probably, a five- or six-week commitment – a week, at least, of a camp, an exhibition schedule, a week of games and acclimation on the other side of the world and more than two weeks of the tournament itself. That’s a huge time commitment, the most asked by many countries in a number of years so I still question how many NBA guys will show up (for any country).

[Straight forward]

But to laugh him off seems shortsighted. What other country wouldn’t promote the reigning u19 MVP and top 3 NBA draft pick to their senior team? If only as a role player? Not many I would guess.

OK, it's fair. But the history shows that be it top NBA draft pick or not such young players make little if any impact at A international tournaments. There are exceptions like Sabonis. I guess Doncic could do it as well. But even look at USA dream team, the team with some nearly supernatural talents...even 19yo Lebron made little impact in 2004.

On other hand, you right. Only few countries now can to claim having a generational talents. It's USA with Zion, Slovenia with Doncic and Canada with Barrett. It's interesting that USA went with really young players only in 2004 (19yo Lebron) and 2012 (19yo Davis). Other than that, youngest players were 22 or even 24 like in 2016 team. USA has been short of generational talents since Davis. Now they might got one with Zion.

[Steadysoul]

So I looked it up. NBA Summer League starts July 5 and ends July 15. The WC starts August 31st.

[ja.he]

are we going to see an all-nba canadian team?

looking at canadians in nba today, that's wiggins, murray, joseph, olynyk, thompson, lyles, birch, brooks, boucher, gilgeous-alexander, hanlan, stauskas, powell, ennis. you can field a canadian team loaded with nba talents. i think it has the potential to compete or even beat team usa.

[Straight forward]

are we going to see an all-nba canadian team?

looking at canadians in nba today, that's wiggins, murray, joseph, olynyk, thompson, lyles, birch, brooks, boucher, gilgeous-alexander, hanlan, stauskas, powell, ennis. you can field a canadian team loaded with nba talents. i think it has the potential to compete or even beat team usa.

I think mojo13 commented this question nicely. Please read above.