WC 2019 Power Rankings

[mojo13]

Here is the announced Aussie 17 man squad.

17-MAN AUSTRALIAN BOOMERS SQUAD

DENG ADEL - Cleveland Cavaliers (NBA)
ARON BAYNES - Boston Celtics (NBA)
TODD BLANCHFIELD - Illawarra Hawks
ANDREW BOGUT - Sydney Kings/Golden State Warriors (NBA)
JONAH BOLDEN - Philadelphia 76ers (NBA)
MITCH CREEK - South East Melbourne Phoenix
MATTHEW DELLAVEDOVA - Cleveland Cavaliers (NBA)
CAMERON GLIDDON - Brisbane Bullets
CHRIS GOULDING - Melbourne United
JOE INGLES - Utah Jazz (NBA)
NICHOLAS KAY - Perth Wildcats
JOCK LANDALE - Partizan (Serbia)
MITCH MCCARRON -Melbourne United
PATTY MILLS - San Antonio Spurs (NBA)
BROCK MOTUM - Anadolu Efes (Turkey)
BEN SIMMONS - Philadelphia 76ers (NBA)
NATHAN SOBEY - Brisbane Bullets


Commentary:

https://www.foxsports.com.au/basketball/ben-simmons-headlines-nbaheavy-aussie-boomers-training-camp-squad-for-2019-fiba-world-cup/news-story/857d500bf388109ef276c75376f476b3

https://pickandroll.com.au/boomers-world-cup-squad-brimming-with-nba-talent/

Top 3 or 4 talent IMO.

[Roofman]

With the absence of Ryan Broekhoff, there is a need for shooters, particularly because opponents will obviously try to pack in their defence around Simmons. Owing to this, and greater familiarity with the system, I see Olympic holdover Chris Goulding, and Lemanis favourites Gliddon , Sobey, Blanchfield and McCarron as legitimate chances to not only make the team, but play meaningful minutes at the guard/swingmen spots, over Deng Adel. Also, while many on these forums have condemmed the FIBA qualifiers and some have taken pot shots at Australia in particular, as if to say, who do they play, having a regular Australian national team program through qualifiers is one of the positives of the late Patrick Baumann, definitely the system works in the Asia Pacific, both in developing standards, and fan/media/corporate interest.

I don't consider Thon Maker's absence a huge loss, as he is still yet to progress beyond being a project, provided Jonah Bolden is included. For me, athletic teams like Canada will obviously try to go small against the Australian frontline, using say, Powell, Birch, Ejim, the maligned Tristan Thompson etc.., attempting to make Baynes and Bogut unplayable. For this, I feel Bolden is a must (even though uncapped and untried at this level)along with Creek, while I think Nick Kay absolutely can also step up with quality minutes.

The two biggest issues are (first one repeated), incorporating new players will take time in Lemanis' system and although every single team shows up to win, there could well be a little short term pain for longer term gain. The second is that Australia have only four lead in games scheduled (albeit of A+ standard) and two of those against Canada, where I suspect both teams will try to win with a hand tied behind their backs to not show all their cards. This seems way too low, unless Basketball Australia have one or two (possibly behind closed doors) friendlies lined up in Dongguan/Guangzhou upon arrival, like with Spain before the Rio Olympics.

To Mojo, I don't pay much heed into what Olgun Uluc states for Fox, as in the same way Fox News is a mouthpiece of the US military, he is basically a mouthpiece of the NBA and a few player agents. I think he is still in his early 30s/late 20s, (was a journalism/marketing student at Northwestern but I digress) and he has mouthed off saying Simmons wouldn't play, Simmons thinks Lemanis is a fool, Josh Green is a serious chance to make this team when Green didn't attend any of the previous camps and all the usual US based ramblings against FIBA etc.

[Hepcat]

...and just another reason why I hate the dominant hockey culture in Canada.

I'm fine with it. Quite simply it's one of the few things making us culturally distinctive from the U.S. as well as unique on the world stage.

[Efesdxb]

Why is Ryan Broekhoff absent?

[Roofman]

Birth of his child in June with complications expected to be involved.

[Obina]

Jokic finally confirmed - he will play for Serbia!

[Dtown]

Sources say Canada finally gets a coach, and it's a good one.

Sources say Toronto Raptors head coach Nick Nurse will manage Team Canada at World Cup.

[mojo13]

Sources say Canada finally gets a coach, and it's a good one.

Sources say Toronto Raptors head coach Nick Nurse will manage Team Canada at World Cup.

Yeah...just saw that as well. Quite interesting.

Sounds like the report of Gordie Herbert was a little off and he is coming in as an assistant. Which is great. Nurse’s FIBA experience is a little old.

[Toruko]

Opinions on specific rankings are pretty meaningless until we see the rosters. Greece with no Giannis? Serbia with no Jokic? I’d just stick with tiers until we know more about rosters.

NBA players have had a pretty poor turnout rate the last few years too, so who really know what Australia and Canada will show up with? Both country’s talent pools are top 4 in my opinion, but that doesn’t matter if guys don’t show up. Don’t underestimate the pressure NBA clubs and agents on putting on guys to not play FIBA nowadays.
Giannis with a deep playoff run? Jokic too with all his little injuries and history of not playing. Gobert too? The Gasols at their age?- anyone this there is more than a 50/50 chance of any of these guys playing?



Without knowing rosters I’d tier them up like this:

Tier 1:
USA

Tier 2:
Australia
Canada
France
Greece
Lithuania
Serbia
Spain

Tier 3:
Russia
Italy
Turkey
Germany
Czech Republic
Brazil
Argentina.
Montenegro

Tier 4
Poland
Dominican Rebublic
Puerto Rico
Venezuela
New Zealand
China

Tier 5:
Angola
Japan
Nigeria
Senegal
Philippines.
Tunisia
Iran
Korea.
Cote d'Ivoire
Jordan

It looks ok for me, if you change greece. Greece is even with Giannis not in that group. Without Giannis greeks are not even mentionable. They neglected to raise up prospects for an entire decade. Especially in the center position and also power forward they are really weak. A 36 year old Bourousis, a never playing Koufos and Papagiannis who couldnt play 30 games in 3 years in the nba.

And at 4 you just have an old Printezis, who played a horrible Euroleague season and just Mitoglou.

[Srle]

Giannis was horrible so far in FIBA competition , his lack of shooting is even more evident in those tournament , he's been quite exposed there. Canada, Australia and France in front of Serbia,you got to be kidding.

[mojo13]

Giannis was horrible so far in FIBA competition , his lack of shooting is even more evident in those tournament , he's been quite exposed there. Canada, Australia and France in front of Serbia,you got to be kidding.

Those are merely tiers with alphabetical listings within the tiers (for the first tier)- not a ranking. It is also prior to knowing anyone's roster or the draw). Serbia is my silver medal favorite (probably Vegas's favorite as well). Tough to really rank anyone clearly until we see rosters - but Serbia would be #2 or #3 in most people's list regardless.

[Terrorizer]

Sounding like Gordon Herbert (Fraport Skyliners - BBL) is going to be Canada's head coach.

Any of you following European bball closer have much an opinion of Gordie Herbert? Please educate me.

A fairly good coach, imo. Yet his results are somewhat unstable and when the overall "team system" is functioning with high efficiency, he proves to be capable with mindul organization of the game and successful neutralization of opposing team's strengths. But it's not always the case and if something is broken (like team chemistry, for example), then he can't serve as an 'emergency repair' type of coach, more of a 'system guy', I guess.

Generally he uses moderately deep rosters but with a couple of guys who play a lot and perform as clear "go-to" players. Most emblematic example is the role he gave to local Frankfurt's legend Tez Robertson (who is a helluva baller, by the way, much better than many highly hyped EL and even NBA "stars"). Gordie generally prefers fast tempo, mobile bigs and multiple guys who play with the ball and also distribute it (and this includes wingers). Still the style of the game highly depends on the roster he currently can rely on and can shift from bigger to lesser focus on perimeter. Yet generally he prefers most of the players to be solid shooters (as opposed to athletic muscleheads) and that include bigs, especially PFs and 3/4 tweeners, so definitely in most of his combinations there is a big 'stretching the floor'component involved.

Generally, Gordie's teams (and this means Frankfurt Skyliners, first and foremost, as he coaches this team for many, many years - though in multiple stints - which does not happen that often in Europe) play sensible, even tatcically nuanced offense but defense is more of a gamble (sometimes very good, sometimes not so much) and there is a lack of mental toughness and ability to 'finish off' the opponent.

Nevertheless, I think he is a good coach but I don't know how comfortable he'll be at the helm of Canada NT. He is a mainstay in Bundesliga and, afaik, he is a highly respected coach there. Moreover, he had won a BBL coach of the year award back in 2016 and this is a good sign since in BBL the level of coaching is even higher than the level of players pool (which is also a reasonably high one). Imho, Herbert is much better than, for example, current Bulls' assistant coach Fleming who also successfully coached in Germany but among 'overseas BBL coaches' I tend to like John Patrick even more.

Big advantage of Herbert lies in the fact that he is totally comfortable and highly adapted to FIBA/international style of basketball but the question remains if he can adapt most of his (demi)star players to this style, especially those with big ego.

Here is the announced Aussie 17 man squad.

17-MAN AUSTRALIAN BOOMERS SQUAD

DENG ADEL - Cleveland Cavaliers (NBA)
ARON BAYNES - Boston Celtics (NBA)
TODD BLANCHFIELD - Illawarra Hawks
ANDREW BOGUT - Sydney Kings/Golden State Warriors (NBA)
JONAH BOLDEN - Philadelphia 76ers (NBA)
MITCH CREEK - South East Melbourne Phoenix
MATTHEW DELLAVEDOVA - Cleveland Cavaliers (NBA)
CAMERON GLIDDON - Brisbane Bullets
CHRIS GOULDING - Melbourne United
JOE INGLES - Utah Jazz (NBA)
NICHOLAS KAY - Perth Wildcats
JOCK LANDALE - Partizan (Serbia)
MITCH MCCARRON -Melbourne United
PATTY MILLS - San Antonio Spurs (NBA)
BROCK MOTUM - Anadolu Efes (Turkey)
BEN SIMMONS - Philadelphia 76ers (NBA)
NATHAN SOBEY - Brisbane Bullets



Top 3 or 4 talent IMO.

For me that's a very mediocre (even if predictably mediocre) roster. If Canada and Lietuva won't royally fuck up, then I suspect that Aussies will be that very "powerhouse" to pack their belongings early.

Especially weak is the backcourt rotation and C position is simply atrocious. Dellavedova finally shown his (mundane, unremarkable) worth. For the league where they never play defense during RS he can be a defensive monster, that bulldog of sorts, but I don't think that it will successfully translate into defnsive dominance in China. Patty is a mentally unstable, incurable primadonna in a team where he should be a sharp-shooting energizer off-the-bench. Goulding, the only pure shooter with a decent background, most probably will play only garbage time if he makes a roster. All the other backcourt rotation variants are either unproven or definitely subpar. Unexplainable and inexcusable absense of Broekhoff (a good all-around player who is also a terrific spot-up shooter) leaves Aussies only with Mills as a confident perimeter option. Nope, you Boomers, that's not enough to succeed in this day and age. There are weird things happening (mediocre Slovenian team winning Eurobasket is an icing on the cake of recent absurdities) but here I highly doubt that a team with one decent run in a big international tournament during the last 15 years will overcome such an obstacle.

Non-shooting Creek, extremely streaky shooting Adel and old 5.5 ppg in EL "NBA star" Ingles, I pity the team with such a 'perfect' rotation on the wing (well, that doesn't count one famous 'point forward' but I've talked about shooting aspect, so this omission is understandable). But that pales in comparison towards the depths of depravity which reign supreme on C position. Landale, most probably a third option right now, is the best of them but he makes Tomic and Pleiss look like lockdown defenders in the paint. Bogut seems to be old as dirt (though he is not that old but he makes such an impression) and slow as molasses... well, these days he is not even a particularly good option for NBL. Retarded lumberjack Baynes (a potentially promising player back in the day whose potential was wasted in NBA) comes off fresh from one of his worst NBA season and a big of his built, speed and playing manner can cut it on this level some 15 years ago but today he is like australopithecus sadistically reanimated back to life in some Lovecraftian fashion. Motum, who can play some minutes as C, also had a rough season in Efes and is a big question mark (despite me having sympathy for his uncut, sloppy yet diligent 'take-no-bullshit' playing style).

About the quality of local NBL constituent I also have my doubts since best of these guys tend to play in Europe every now and then once the NBL season is over and it doesn't look that they are valuable assets on the equal footing with the older Boomers generation (shit, those were the ones who were good enough to play in Europe full-time). For example, NT candidate Nathan Sobey got the stats of 4.5 ppg + 1.9 apg playing for Starsbourg (15 games).

Some interesting (and rare in this day and age) European options are overlooked - I think that there should be a place in this roster for someone like Ben Madgen, even if he's old, but they need shooters like him. Also with guys like Blanchfield and Kay being singled out for this 'wide roster', I wonder why Xavier Cooks is not named - he's young and inexperienced but this is a player with a definite upside, very versatile and agile forward who likes to run the floor, plays hard through the contact and grabs rebounds at a solid rate but who also progresses a lot in sharing the ball and understanding the game. The most infuriating is the missing of Mangok Mathiang who is the only Aussie big who can give them a much needed rebounding edge. Right now he is much better than Baynes and (today's) Bogut combined. I mean, he's rough around the edges but that guy is a rebounding machine and for an unadulterated athletic beast he expanded his offensive potential a lot since his Louisville days. Mangok is one of the main guys for a team which made it to the semies in Lega A.

Yet here we have Ben Simmons surrounded by non-shooters and ageing slow bigs... that should be a recipe for disaster if there is some form of the higher basketball justice.

Also there is a lot of talk how Australia is brimming with "NBA talent" but I've just checked who among Aussie NBAers played more than 20 minutes per game this season (that's not a terrific number even for an international player, it's a level of mediocrity like Maxi Kleber). Simmons, Patty, Ingles (another total mediocrity) and... that's all. This season even Delly played less. Huh, that doesn't sound like Top 3 or 4 talent for me.

P.S. I have nothing personal against our lovely antipodes, moreover, I even sympathized with their national team some 10-15 years ago but right now their team is one of the most overrated ones.

[Toruko]

Well in that group everything can happen and I wouldnt also overestimate the Lithuanians. Their biggest problem is still Mantas Kalnietis. He is a catastrophy as a pg and even a european powerhouse in BB like couldnt solve his pg problem. Big rotation with Valenciunas, Domantas Sabonis, Maciulis and Kavaliauskas is more than ok but the shorts will be a big problem.

[Terrorizer]

Oh, I've missed that Canadians chose a nurse to coach their team. Not the best decision, I suppose

France in front of Serbia,you got to be kidding.

France has a potential roster twice as good as Serbia and thrice as deep

My "tiers ranking".

Tier I. USA (how big is a distance between them and any Tier II team depends on the roster they assemble).

Tier II. France, Spain, Canada (a lot depends on their roster and team chemistry), Serbia: ordered power-wise.

Tier III. Argentina, Australia, Germany, Greece, Italy, Lithuania, Russia: ordered alphabetically.

Tier IV. Montenegro, Brazil, Turkey, Czech Republic, Poland, New Zealand, Nigeria, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico.

Tier V. Venezuela, China, Senegal, Cote d'Ivoire, Angola.

Tier VI. Philippines, Japan, Tunisia, Iran, Jordan, Southern Korea.

[Toruko]

Russia, Germany and Argentina stronger than Turkey? You must be kidding. hahahahahahaa