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Thread: Improving and Declining Teams

  1. #1

    Default Improving and Declining Teams

    Which national teams are likely to do better than they did at this Eurobasket in Latvia in 2025? Which teams are likely to do worse? Those of you who are more knowledgeable than me about young prospects in Europe and the general state of national federations and leagues should be able to answer this. I am very curious to hear your answers.

    for what it's worth (probably not much) here are the final standings of the last few u20 tournaments

    u20 eurobasket 2022
    1. ESP
    2. LTU
    3. MNE
    4. ISR
    5. TUR
    6. CRO

    u20 eurobasket 2019
    1. ISR
    2. ESP
    3. GER
    4. FRA
    5. LTU
    6. TUR

    u20 eurobasket 2018
    1. ISR
    2. CRO
    3. GER
    4. FRA
    5. TUR
    6. SRB

  2. #2
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    Quite risky because the judgement is strongly influenced by the Eurobasket results, things can be different every season.

    So I restrict my selection to two teams, I choose Croatia as the declining team, bogdanovic is getting older, slow and low-quality basket, the worst Eurobasket coach.

    On the other hand Germany has good reasons to look upon the future with optimism considering the nbaers they can convocate.

  3. #3
    Senior Member Straight forward's Avatar
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    Declining: Croatia, Greece

    Improving: Germany, Italy, France

    I put France here cause let's agree - possible addition of Embiid and Victor Wembanyama is scary.

    Others harder to measure. Poland made SF, but I don't understand how. Nothing special (has one good NBA prospect though). Spain obviously much weaker, but still perfectly coached and they will get Rubio back and some upcoming talents which Spain has a lot (even though no supertalent as Pau in the horizon). Serbia will remain elite for long years, but attitude will remain the question mark (status quo). Turkey will remain borderline elite, but inconsistent and unpredictable team, more or less status quo. Ukraine, Israel, Bosnia, Estonia, Finland are on the certain rise, but simply lacking depth to aim really high. Lithuania has one of the best prospects upsides in Europe ATM, but the timing and actual realization of blossoming is always a question. Latvia can remind of themselves if Porzingis will be present. Slovenia has quite few elite guard prospects, but will continue to lack bigs, status quo more or less. Czecks and Georgians on the slight decline likely.

    Regarding prospects power long term (and it terms of consistency), I would say France, Spain, Serbia, Lithuania have the best pools in Europe. On other hand senior NT success often rely on 3, 4 spot on pieces that may come as late bloomers or even from no-where, so it's not that simple.
    LTU NT will snatch Eurobasket 2029 title with this roster:

    Jokubaitis, Marciulionis, Laurencikas
    Indrusaitis, Brazdeikis, Rubstavicius
    Buzelis, Lelevicius
    Murauskas, Sirvydis
    Tubelis, Krivas

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    Senior Member R1ou's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Straight forward View Post
    Declining: Croatia, Greece

    Improving: Germany, Italy, France

    I put France here cause let's agree - possible addition of Embiid and Victor Wembanyama is scary.

    Others harder to measure. Poland made SF, but I don't understand how. Nothing special (has one good NBA prospect though). Spain obviously much weaker, but still perfectly coached and they will get Rubio back and some upcoming talents which Spain has a lot (even though no supertalent as Pau in the horizon). Serbia will remain elite for long years, but attitude will remain the question mark (status quo). Turkey will remain borderline elite, but inconsistent and unpredictable team, more or less status quo. Ukraine, Israel, Bosnia, Estonia, Finland are on the certain rise, but simply lacking depth to aim really high. Lithuania has one of the best prospects upsides in Europe ATM, but the timing and actual realization of blossoming is always a question. Latvia can remind of themselves if Porzingis will be present. Slovenia has quite few elite guard prospects, but will continue to lack bigs, status quo more or less. Czecks and Georgians on the slight decline likely.

    Regarding prospects power long term (and it terms of consistency), I would say France, Spain, Serbia, Lithuania have the best pools in Europe. On other hand senior NT success often rely on 3, 4 spot on pieces that may come as late bloomers or even from no-where, so it's not that simple.

    Hard to call Lithuania elite when they got to face 4 teams of their level this summer and they failed to record a single victory.
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    Senior Member Straight forward's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by R1ou View Post
    Hard to call Lithuania elite when they got to face 4 teams of their level this summer and they failed to record a single victory.
    Yeah, that's why I didn't say that But in my calculations, Lithuania should have one of the most talented stretches counting 1999-2006 born prospects. IMO, it can match and even exceed famous 1973- 1980 stretch when Stombergas, Jasikevicius, Siskauskas, Macijauskas, Kaukenas, Songaila, Lavrinovic Bros, Javtokas and others were born.
    LTU NT will snatch Eurobasket 2029 title with this roster:

    Jokubaitis, Marciulionis, Laurencikas
    Indrusaitis, Brazdeikis, Rubstavicius
    Buzelis, Lelevicius
    Murauskas, Sirvydis
    Tubelis, Krivas

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    Administrator Levenspiel's Avatar
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    I'm no expert either, and was not following the international bball closely for a while, but I can see easily that youth tournaments mean something ONLY if those kids are playing in the senior teams, as in the case of Spain. and they do dominate Europe at any category, both national teams and club teams. You'd think people would follow the obvious example.

    the opposite is true for Turkey, where none of the u-team medalists can find significant playing time in their teams (ironically, unless they go to the NBA). So, the senior team continues to suck, desperately trying to hire naturalized players, which does not work because there is not adequate game experience in others. I see this problem in many other nations, too, in Greece, Croatia, etc (not just last 3 tournaments). Israel is an interesting case, cannot say their golden generation has failed, but did not break much ground either.
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    Senior Member Straight forward's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Levenspiel View Post
    I'm no expert either, and was not following the international bball closely for a while, but I can see easily that youth tournaments mean something ONLY if those kids are playing in the senior teams, as in the case of Spain. and they do dominate Europe at any category, both national teams and club teams. You'd think people would follow the obvious example.
    Debatable. Alocen warming the bench in Real. Barsa's youngsters also barely see playing time. Only sure fire NBA gems crack the rotation early, as Garuba. Alocen joined Real, but the ride was tough thus far. Maybe it's better to stay in mid tier ACB team for longer years.
    LTU NT will snatch Eurobasket 2029 title with this roster:

    Jokubaitis, Marciulionis, Laurencikas
    Indrusaitis, Brazdeikis, Rubstavicius
    Buzelis, Lelevicius
    Murauskas, Sirvydis
    Tubelis, Krivas

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    the opposite is true for Turkey, where none of the u-team medalists can find significant playing time in their teams (ironically, unless they go to the NBA).

    This is of course nonsense. The things in Turkey changed drastically in the below Euroleague teams. Many of the 2004 born guys are finding significant roles in a very tough environment and leagues.

    What can be said surely is that the Turkish NT will be much stronger than the current one. Not that only the young guns will flourish in time (The core of this team was younger than 24 year old) it will be added with significant talent. The problem the Turkish NT has to meet in the next years is to grow an acceptable point guard.

    Declining: Greece, France, Spain
    Stable: Lithuania, Slovenia
    Improving: Turkey, Italy, Germany

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    Administrator Levenspiel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Toruko View Post
    the opposite is true for Turkey, where none of the u-team medalists can find significant playing time in their teams (ironically, unless they go to the NBA).

    This is of course nonsense. The things in Turkey changed drastically in the below Euroleague teams. Many of the 2004 born guys are finding significant roles in a very tough environment and leagues.

    What can be said surely is that the Turkish NT will be much stronger than the current one. Not that only the young guns will flourish in time (The core of this team was younger than 24 year old) it will be added with significant talent. The problem the Turkish NT has to meet in the next years is to grow an acceptable point guard.

    Declining: Greece, France, Spain
    Stable: Lithuania, Slovenia
    Improving: Turkey, Italy, Germany
    Nah, I believe it when I see it. I hear this optimistic take since ages, and we see where we are.
    The first thing required for healing is to diagnose correctly, and we should stop fooling ourselves. Evidence, not opinions, shows conclusively that we suck.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Levenspiel View Post
    Nah, I believe it when I see it. I hear this optimistic take since ages, and we see where we are.
    The first thing required for healing is to diagnose correctly, and we should stop fooling ourselves. Evidence, not opinions, shows conclusively that we suck.
    No, we are getting better and better and showed that we can compete with everyone. You were right with bringing up talent to the next level but these times have passed. Evidence is that unlike 3-4 years ago all teams below EL give Turkish players a significant role in good teams but there is no guarantee that any of these prospects will succeed. That goes for everyone, just the rate will increase.

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    Senior Member Straight forward's Avatar
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    How can Turkey be growing team without guard prospects?
    LTU NT will snatch Eurobasket 2029 title with this roster:

    Jokubaitis, Marciulionis, Laurencikas
    Indrusaitis, Brazdeikis, Rubstavicius
    Buzelis, Lelevicius
    Murauskas, Sirvydis
    Tubelis, Krivas

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    Quote Originally Posted by Straight forward View Post
    How can Turkey be growing team without guard prospects?
    First of all, there are enough. Second 80% of all teams have guard problems and solve them with naturalized player.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Toruko View Post
    First of all, there are enough. Second 80% of all teams have guard problems and solve them with naturalized player.
    Yeah, that's what I wanted to say. Maybe a strong foreigner in the horizon.
    LTU NT will snatch Eurobasket 2029 title with this roster:

    Jokubaitis, Marciulionis, Laurencikas
    Indrusaitis, Brazdeikis, Rubstavicius
    Buzelis, Lelevicius
    Murauskas, Sirvydis
    Tubelis, Krivas

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    Quote Originally Posted by Straight forward View Post
    Declining: Croatia, Greece

    Improving: Germany, Italy, France

    I put France here cause let's agree - possible addition of Embiid and Victor Wembanyama is scary.

    Others harder to measure. Poland made SF, but I don't understand how. Nothing special (has one good NBA prospect though). Spain obviously much weaker, but still perfectly coached and they will get Rubio back and some upcoming talents which Spain has a lot (even though no supertalent as Pau in the horizon). Serbia will remain elite for long years, but attitude will remain the question mark (status quo). Turkey will remain borderline elite, but inconsistent and unpredictable team, more or less status quo. Ukraine, Israel, Bosnia, Estonia, Finland are on the certain rise, but simply lacking depth to aim really high. Lithuania has one of the best prospects upsides in Europe ATM, but the timing and actual realization of blossoming is always a question. Latvia can remind of themselves if Porzingis will be present. Slovenia has quite few elite guard prospects, but will continue to lack bigs, status quo more or less. Czecks and Georgians on the slight decline likely.

    Regarding prospects power long term (and it terms of consistency), I would say France, Spain, Serbia, Lithuania have the best pools in Europe. On other hand senior NT success often rely on 3, 4 spot on pieces that may come as late bloomers or even from no-where, so it's not that simple.
    Some great observations!

    Obviously Germany and France are on the rise. Along with the good talent they produce, they have the leagues which are able to absorb these players and they're able to go step by step.
    Spain will also do well from these same reasons and they've got some really nice talents out there. Not neccesarily superstars, but some could as well develop close to that. These countries in particular do not have troubles with their talents transitioning from U18 to seniors, since they've got enough professional clubs which are able to accomodate those and offer them good training conditions.
    I am saying that, because the later is a trouble in Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia. Slovenia is solving this issue by exporting lots of our better talents, preferably to Spain. In Serbia that fact doesn't show at first sight, since they're still producing lots of players, however I don't think there is as many talents left behind anyplace else. Guys that don't make the cut to U18, U20, but are still pretty talented compared to some other programs, could as well make a career, but instead put their effort into some job or college. Croatia has an issue with the level of coaches at younger levels I've been told, while their clubs are also stagnating quite hard.

    I like what I've seen from Finland on this tournament, popularity of basketball has gone up in the last decade and it shows with them producing some young players, Little, Jantunen, Valtonen will be a joy to watch with Madsen and Markannen in 2025.


    Slovenia's issue with the bigs shouldn't last. Our 88' to 96' generations were a black hole as far as talent is concerned in general, but even more so with the bigs. We expected a fight for a medal at U20 this year (won one of the challengers last year), but the team was poorly assembled (not enough guards actually ) and coached.
    Saša Ciani 209cm, PF/C 03' should develop into a quite servicable center for eurobasket level if he stays healthy.
    Blaž Habot 208cm C 00' around 130kg (lost around 30kg in a year), is a long shot, since he has weight issues that have reportedly deteriorated in last months, other than that he is strong as a beast
    Žiga Daneu 208cm, 02' and Robert Jurkovič 207cm 02' (both dads played for Olimpija in the 90ies) will mostlikely not be anything spectacular, but since our reserve center right now is Žiga Dimec, so we as well might be excited
    Too early to tell about the 04', 05' generations, they actualy have some height, but I don't expect any of them to develop out of the ordinary.

    The kid with the most talent (not counting guards) is Luka Ščuka, 210 PF, 02' He didn't get the minutes in Olimpija last year, mainly due to his defense and will be loaned in ABA this year. Offensively he has all the tools out there, if everything would click, we got ourselves a modern offensive PF.


    With numerous guards coming up, with euroleague potential or close to it, I am way more optimistic regarding out NT basketball future than I ever was from 87' generation (that is now basicaly retired) onwards.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jon_Koncak View Post
    That's funny shit.I cant believe there are sports fans thinking like it.It's like Federer losing to random Japanese player in round 1 of French Open but tournament director stepping in and saying "hey it was a fluke win who wants to watch a random Japanese guy in next round,Federer qualifies"

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    Quote Originally Posted by Straight forward View Post
    Yeah, that's what I wanted to say. Maybe a strong foreigner in the horizon.
    The same question could be asked to Lithuanians as well btw.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Toruko View Post
    the opposite is true for Turkey, where none of the u-team medalists can find significant playing time in their teams (ironically, unless they go to the NBA).

    This is of course nonsense. The things in Turkey changed drastically in the below Euroleague teams. Many of the 2004 born guys are finding significant roles in a very tough environment and leagues.

    What can be said surely is that the Turkish NT will be much stronger than the current one. Not that only the young guns will flourish in time (The core of this team was younger than 24 year old) it will be added with significant talent. The problem the Turkish NT has to meet in the next years is to grow an acceptable point guard.

    Declining: Greece, France, Spain
    Stable: Lithuania, Slovenia
    Improving: Turkey, Italy, Germany
    How is France declining...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ridirkulous View Post
    How is France declining...
    Its easy to tell. They have problems with giving the ball a direction and this wont be different in the future. Sure different talents will be added but it will take time to become a new Fournier for example. Declining doesnt mean for me that the teams will fail after the group stage. It means they have problems and they are gonna be bigger.

  18. #18
    Senior Member Straight forward's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Toruko View Post
    The same question could be asked to Lithuanians as well btw.
    Not really. You can't compare Jokubaitis to Hazer. You can't compare Hazer even with Brazdeikis. Lithuania has borderline NBA prospect guards as Jokubaitis, Brazdeikis, Rubstavicius, Indrusaitis (not to mention EL upside prospects as Marciulionis, D. Giedraitis, Jakucionis, Laurencikas or even Velicka). Who from Turkey can match that?

    Hazer and Biberovic? None of them are drafted or making noise in the EL. Something what Jokubaitis has been doing for 2 seasons now and Brazdeikis will this season + D. Giedraitis will play in EL and Rubstavicius in Eurocup. The situation with Turkish guards, at least at the moment, is completely different compared to Lithuania.
    LTU NT will snatch Eurobasket 2029 title with this roster:

    Jokubaitis, Marciulionis, Laurencikas
    Indrusaitis, Brazdeikis, Rubstavicius
    Buzelis, Lelevicius
    Murauskas, Sirvydis
    Tubelis, Krivas

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    Senior Member Straight forward's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Toruko View Post
    Its easy to tell. They have problems with giving the ball a direction and this wont be different in the future. Sure different talents will be added but it will take time to become a new Fournier for example. Declining doesnt mean for me that the teams will fail after the group stage. It means they have problems and they are gonna be bigger.
    Do you realize that France last year was in the final and they are almost in the final of EB this year? Sure, some luck this season, but they also lack Batum, Embiid, Wembanyama who dropped 34pts last night on Champions League club. Adding few superstars and the best defensive forward in Europe won't hurt that much to treat them declining

    Again, where is Turkey, if France with all their NBA PG prospects declining?
    LTU NT will snatch Eurobasket 2029 title with this roster:

    Jokubaitis, Marciulionis, Laurencikas
    Indrusaitis, Brazdeikis, Rubstavicius
    Buzelis, Lelevicius
    Murauskas, Sirvydis
    Tubelis, Krivas

  20. #20
    Senior Member Straight forward's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joško Poljak Fan View Post
    With numerous guards coming up, with euroleague potential or close to it, I am way more optimistic regarding out NT basketball future than I ever was from 87' generation (that is now basicaly retired) onwards.
    If Slovenia can gather a decent fronline, that's all needed, IMO, cause they have the best guard prospect upside in Europe, I think. Samar, Glas, Ivankovic, Urban Klavzar, Osojnik, Jan Vide. Assuming Doncic stays active for another 10 years, Slovenia is in very comfortable position to fight for top spots.
    LTU NT will snatch Eurobasket 2029 title with this roster:

    Jokubaitis, Marciulionis, Laurencikas
    Indrusaitis, Brazdeikis, Rubstavicius
    Buzelis, Lelevicius
    Murauskas, Sirvydis
    Tubelis, Krivas

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