Serbia at OQT 2021

[Katastroika]

Two and a half months before the Eagles are meeting up for training camp so I think we can start to discuss a little the upcoming Olympic qualifiers.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_FIBA_Men%27s_Olympic_Qualifying_Tournaments_%E2%80%93_Belgrade

We are starting Dominican Republic, followed by Philippines in Group A. It will be decided whether games will be played in Stark Arena or in Pionir (depending if there will be attendance or not). Danilovic told media this week he expects fans and games in Arena if situation stays like that. But it's really a gamble to even think now where and under which circumstances games will be played. I think maximum is some kind 5.000 people barrier. We had 2 years no national team in Belgrade so I really hope to see the Blues this summer.

As Kokoskov mentioned after Tbilisi windows there are several options depending on available players. So I would like to focus on availability in first step.

Injured: Milutinov (recovery ongoing)
NBA obligations: Jokic, Bjelica, Bogdanovic are on teams that have possibility to survive conference semifinals.

Realistically Jokic and Bjelica have good reasons to believe they can go deep into Western and Eastern playoffs as their teams are playing really well, for Bogdanovic's Hawks it's too early this year so a very important piece should be available for the whole tournament.

Strongest roster for Olympic Games:

Teodosic, Jovic, Micic
Bogdanovic, Nedovic, Guduric
Lucic, Kalinic
Bjelica, Petrusev
Jokic, Milutinov

Possible call ups: Avramovic, Jaramaz, Pokusevski, Smailagic, Marjanovic, Raduljica


More possible options for OQT:

Teodosic, Jovic, Micic
Bogdanovic Nedovic, Guduric
Lucic, Kalinic
Petrusev, Smailagic
Milutinov, Raduljica


Worst case scenario at this moment:

Teodosic, Jovic, Micic
Nedovic, Guduric, Jaramaz
Lucic, Kalinic
Petrusev, Smailagic
Raduljica, Marjanovic

Still a team that can beat all opponents on home-court but really would be happy to see Milutinov pain-free on the roster and one of Bogdan-Bjelica on the roster.
It's not directly linked with our roster but it's interesting that if Hawks manage to walk through Eastern semis both Serbia and Italy will miss one of their best starters.

[Serbian_Layup]

Well, with how well the Hawks have been doing since the hire of Nate Mcmillan (Bogi is beginning to look like 2019 WC Bogi), and how great the Nuggets have been playing, we have to think about possibility of playing OQT without our two best players. And even Bjelica might be questionable. That worst case scenario team is still talented, but it would be crucial to add Milutinov if he recovers in time. He would mean a lot for that team in both ways.

We'll see, it's still too early, but our guys are doing so well in the NBA, it's great to watch them play like this and represent our brand of basketball. Maybe not so great for us, fans of NT expecting loaded roster for OQT, but there are plenty of players with grit and grind ready to step up and prove themselves in NT.

[Katastroika]

I agree, I wish them all possible success in NBA season and see them happy and ready for Olympics. I would consider it highly idiotic wishing them bad luck in playoffs just in order to have them at OQT.

[Katastroika]

Bogdanovic last 10 games:
GP MIN FG% 3P% FT% REB AST BLK STL PF TO PTS
L10 10 36.7 50.3 52.3 88.2 4.8 4.6 0.4 1.4 2.4 1.4 22.4

[Serbian_Layup]

Bogi has been spitting fire post all star. It's not just shooting, his off ball movement reminds me on Klay Thompson. He is so smart and skilled using screens and causes great trouble to defenders chasing him around screens. I would like to see more of that in NT. With Jokic setting screens and playing dribble hand-offs with Bogi would be some really great basketball to watch. Bogi is in his prime, real prototype of smart, skilled, tough Euro player. He just plays the right way whether it is shooting, passing, p&r, he can do it all. Not just him, it seems that everything is coming together for this generation, a lot of main players are in their prime or just entering best years of their careers. Even Teo still looks good offensively, he won't have to play heavy minutes, coming off the bench to play vs second units for about 15 minutes where he wouldn't be exposed defensively and still be able to work some magic is a great luxury to have. Just hope everyone will stay healthy and we will watch some really good basketball from this team.

[Katastroika]

Points per game of Serbian national team candidates in 2020/21 in European competitions and NBA (except Petrusev with, of course ABA stats because of no international playing):

Teodosic: 15.4pt. (44.3% / 33.5%)
Micic: 16.pt. (56.4% / 35,3%)
Jovic: 4.4pt. (40% / 53.8%)
Bogdanovic: 14.1pt (44.5 / 41.5%)
Nedovic: 16pt (51.8/ 37%)
Guduric: 11.6pt (52.6% / 39.1%)
Lucic: 13.8pt (51.6% / 43.9%)
Kalinic: 10.4pt. (53.6% / 33.3%)
Bjelica: 7.2pt. (46% / 29.3%)
Petrusev 23.7pt. (61.9% / 41.9%)
Jokic: 26.1pt. (56.7% / 42.2%)
Milutinov 9.8pt. (67% / 50%)

[Serbian_Layup]

I think we have a really good balance of offense/defense, players compatible with Jokic (this is very important aspect trying to get the best out of Jokic, guys like Lucic, Kalinic, potentially Nedovic are great fit next to Jokic, especially Lucic and Kalinic as low usage but very efficient two way players. I don't have any doubt that such high IQ and skilled players like Jokic and Bogdan are going to look great together. We'll see how Micic will fit in, he should be motivated to show his worth in NT, while Teo and Jokic's two man game should be filthy good. Though, they will probably have great trouble defending high p&r

Bogdan/Jokic are primary engines of this team, the key is to make all other players find their role with those two. Lucic and Kalinic will fit in, I don't doubt that. Teo is Teo, it all comes natural to him. Micic, Guduric, Nedovic though, it may take a while for them to gel with Jokic and Bogdanovic. That's why I hope we'll have as many preparation games as possible to buy some time to get into groove. Guduric doesn't feel well if he is used solely as a shooter, part of the reason why he left NBA is that he was being used just as a shooter, we see in Fener that he gets to handle the ball and do a bit of playmaking, that's where he feels most comfortable. I'm sceptical that he is going to find enough room to play his game when you clearly have Micic and Teo as primary creators (Jokic?), then Bogdan as a secondary playmaker, so where does Guduric fit in here? He looked bad in 2019, and I think part of the reason was exactly because of this, he was just standing in the corner. Good thing is Kokoskov probably knows that and he might find a way to get him a role he is comfortable with. Nedovic is absolutely not going to have a chance to handle the ball like he does at Pao. I already said that I think he would be best used if he commits more in off ball role, transition, hitting open shots, cutting to basket. I don't see him being a positive contributor if he doesn't accept that role.

Speaking about individual seasons, they all have had pretty much great year.

- Jokic, no words are necessary.
- Bogdan, slow start, got injured, now looking like the best version of himself.
- Micic, the best year of his career, arguably the best Euroleague point guard.
- Teo, still good. Still working magic. 15-20 minutes per game with NT seems like a perfect situation for him.
- Lucic, amazing season for him. I think he is the most efficient player in Euroleague when you take into consideration his usage. Always makes the right play, has had a bunch of clutch plays for Bayern this season on both ends of the floor.
- Kalinic, still good, still one of the most versatile forwards in Euroleague.
- Bjelica, last season was great for him, different situation this year, not playing much, needs to find his role with the Heat. Shooting ability and making timely passes are still there, he should be good with NT.
- Jovic, injury riddled season, but his impact is never shown through stats, if he will be healthy, I don't doubt he will be up to task.
- Petrusev, incredible numbers in ABA league, I can see him playing both PF/C positions, his athleticism, nimble feet, ability to stretch the floor, p&r will be very helpful.
- Milutinov, really hope he will be healthy for Olympics if we get there. His role would be big in this team.
- Guduric, nice season for him, his arrival meant a lot to Fener's rise. Skilled player, plays the game the right way.
- Nedovic, statistically great, but not much to take from that considering Pao wasn't good this season. However, his athleticism is still there, he hasn't lost a step, streaky as always, but his energy off the bench could provide important spark to our offense.

Great season for Avramovic, I expected more from Marinkovic, still think he has a good chance of becoming a nice 3&D player. Marjanovic played here and there but not enough to say something substancial. We know why we can expect form him. Smailagic was coping with injury, hard to say anything about his progress. Poku could be dark horse candidate to make the team considering his development and astonishing potential.

[Straight forward]

Indeed, Serbia seems posed to contend in Olympics. On other hand, WC experience should be taken into consideration. Even stacked teams might struggle. Great season for most players though, indeed.

[Serbian_Layup]

Indeed, Serbia seems posed to contend in Olympics. On other hand, WC experience should be taken into consideration. Even stacked teams might struggle. Great season for most players though, indeed.

There was something strange and off with that 2019 campaign. Even before it all started, Djordjevic was giving some unusual for him strange and unconfident vibes. He was always complaining about not having enough time to work with all players as one coherent unit. NBA players were arriving late, then some players had to cope with personal problems, losing Teo...He was definitely giving some different vibes without his usual optimism. But there were also some illogical game plans such as starting Jokic off the bench, forcing two tower lineups...I think he just didn't have enough time to set clear roles for all main contributors. Our game plan was basically give the ball to Bogdan and get out of the way. I don't think he wanted to play that way, he just didn't have enough time to establish good lineups and set proper roles. This team has so much more potential than to rely on ISO plays and some weird tower lineups, that was strange to watch. But I'm sure there is more to that, some objective circumstances were just not favorable at that moment.

We'll see what happens this year, nothing can be told with certainty.

[Toruko]

I think the biggest problem or question mark of team Serbia will be Jokics attitude and motivation. The question is is he gonna play and if yes how motivated will he be. A really well sounding team indeed. Just seeing guys like Bircevic or Simonovic among the stars is a bit weird also not a big fan of Lucic but ok. I also think that Marjanovic hurts the team and shouldnt be invited as well as Raduljica. Both are big liabilities defensively.

[Katastroika]

Indeed, Serbia seems posed to contend in Olympics. On other hand, WC experience should be taken into consideration. Even stacked teams might struggle. Great season for most players though, indeed.

I think 2019 was specific. Đorđević ignored with his legendary stubborness Kalinić and Nedović and had no answer for Teo's and Milosavljević's injuries and way too big ego to call them up after that happened. We went to China with literally 3 and a half guards and Vasa's mother died before Italy game. Understandably he looked like a shadow from then.

Second thing was that Jokić was put in dinosaur line ups with Bobi and Raduljica and Milutinov. It's until today icredible. You've got best center in the world and put him on PF

What shouldn't be forgotten is that we played excellent basketball and dominated until Scariolo out of desperance put a combined 1-4 zone (Raptors playoff zone vs Curry) on the floor when we were up 8 vs.Spain. Then everything imploded and Bogdanović couldn't win it alone

Generally until today I think that a healthy Teo and Jokić on his regular position made the difference.

This year I have a very good feeling about this team that I haven't had ast year. One of factors are Jokić's additional stepping up. Everything must be based on Jokić and that's why it was a very good thing that Malone was included in coaching staff by Kokoškov. Strategically and psychologically.

[Serbian_Layup]

Kokoskov calling Malone to join his staff in the role of advisor might be very helpful when it comes to using Jokic in the right way and building identity around him. With that move I think Kokoskov sent a clear message to Jokic that he wants to build the team around him. Not to mention that he also called Milojevic (Jokic's coach in Mega and a good friend it seems), you've got to think that Kokoskov made some moves to relax Jokic. Truth be told, Jokic came overweight in 2019, even though he was used poorly, he was off and not up to task. That should change this year, I think everything is set for him to have a breakout year with NT, if he decides to play. He is going through a really demanding season, carrying Nuggets the entire season. Fatigue is real there.

[Katastroika]

I am pretty sure he will play. After Murray's injury this is all of a sudden a wasted season for Denver and after all it's Olympic games. And yeah, Kokoškov clearly targets Jokić as central piece of his team and that is for me logical. He is one of the best players in the world.

[Katastroika]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AUPjxAz7POc

Avramovic plays a very good season. I really would like to see him in some short stretches. Some role like Nedovic had in Germany 2015. Come in for 4min and let him take 3-4 offenses in a row.

[Serbian_Layup]

Bogi been playing the best basketball of his career. This is evidence of how important coaching and finding proper role is to get the best out of one player.

Looking forward to watching Joker/Bogi one-two punch over the summer. It will be very interesting to see how opposing teams will game plan for them knowing that besides them there are lots of quality Euroleague players you can't leave open. There are basically no conceptual risks in most of our lineups, because nobody is going to dare to help of off Micic, Guduric, Bjelica, Lucic...That offense at least in theory should really be brilliant. Hopefully, everyone will stay healthy.