Euroleague and Eurocup suspended due to COVID-19

[usagre]

You mean people over 65 or people with other diseases won't go out for a year or two?

Average Italian fatality was closer to mid 80’s.
It doesn’t mean that efforts for treatment and preventive vaccines will cease. It also doesn’t mean that many of the social distancing practices won’t continue. But there has to be a balance. 90+% if not more of the population can not act as if they are in mortal danger when they are not. Containment has to stop at some point. And that can’t be dictated by whether the virus is totally eliminated or treatable. That can take years. That is not a rational solution.

[Killer Bob]

Average Italian fatality was closer to mid 80’s.
It doesn’t mean that efforts for treatment and preventive vaccines will cease. It also doesn’t mean that many of the social distancing practices won’t continue. But there has to be a balance. 90+% if not more of the population can not act as if they are in mortal danger when they are not. Containment has to stop at some point. And that can’t be dictated by whether the virus is totally eliminated or treatable. That can take years. That is not a rational solution.

2 dead 90 years old and one 65 years old give us average 81 years and that didn't help much the one with 65 years. It looks that USA might walk your path. I just wonder what will happen with that social experiment and its leaders, if 10 mio Americans dies this year?

[usagre]

2 dead 90 years old and one 65 years old give us average 81 years and that didn't help much the one with 65 years. It looks that USA might walk your path. I just wonder what will happen with that experiment and its leaders, if 10 mio Americans dies this year?

All I am saying is balance. If there was a serious projection that 10 million Americans could die this year from this virus then I would be singing a different tune. But 3% of the US population succumbing to this virus is outlandish in my opinion. That’s probably a worst case 1% scenario in which we can’t base decisions off of.

[Adon]

There definitely has to be a balance. Right now and for at least another month I am all for the drastic measures that are taking place around the world in order to contain the virus. But at some point there has to be a shift. In a month or so we will have enough relevant data that clearly shows that the virus is life threatening to a very small percentage of the population.
Therefore it is that population that will have to continue to self isolate and take the extreme precautions that we are all rightfully taking now.

Don't count the dead only. A serious illness, even if you live, is something to avoid. A lot of people are hospitalized, many of them don't die just because the health system can help them. For how long, if the numbers grow up?

[Killer Bob]

All I am saying is balance. If there was a serious projection that 10 million Americans could die this year from this virus then I would be singing a different tune. But 3% of the US population succumbing to this virus is outlandish in my opinion. That’s probably a worst case 1% scenario in which we can’t base decisions off of.

There're many serious projections that say just that. Just google a little. Do you remember, when we had a discussion about exponential growth rate and you were saying how US has so little cases because you stoped some planes in January? You couldn't believe that projections for infected people in US is even worse than in Italy. And now you will catch Italy before the end of this week. And don't forget that you're 11 days behind them.

[turk-jugoslav]

They have reset numbers. It might have been only a mistake.

It might have been mistake but nothing changes. Turkish regime clearly hides something like all authoritarian countries(Iran, China, etc.)

[usagre]

Don't count the dead only. A serious illness, even if you live, is something to avoid. A lot of people are hospitalized, many of them don't die just because the health system can help them. For how long, if the numbers grow up?

All fair points. And they should be weighed as well in trying to achieve the appropriate balance. That’s why there major developments occurring in increasing ICU beds. That is what the main problem might be.

[usagre]

There're many serious projections that say just that. Just google a little. Do you remember, when we had a discussion about exponential growth rate and you were saying how US has so little cases because you stoped some planes in January? You couldn't believe that projections for infected people in US is even worse than in Italy. And now you will catch Italy before the end of this week. And don't forget that you're 11 days behind them.

The US is precisely not Italy in big part because of that early travel ban. On March 13, Italy had 250 deaths. Yesterday the US had 225. If we were truly Italy then we would have had 1,375 deaths instead. It’s not even close. And I don’t need to google anything when I have all the relevant day to day constantly updated information. I can perform simple math.

[Killer Bob]

The US is precisely not Italy in big part because of that early travel ban. On March 13, Italy had 250 deaths. Yesterday the US had 225. If we were truly Italy then we would have had 1,375 deaths instead. It’s not even close. And I don’t need to google anything when I have all the relevant day to day constantly updated information. I can perform simple math.

You're not Italy with deaths because Italy has very old population. But in number of cases you will in 11 days have more or less similar number of cases per capita and going up. Btw. per capita is not that important with exponential graph of yours.

[usagre]

You're not Italy with deaths because Italy has very old population. But in number of cases you will in 11 days have more or less similar number of cases per capita and going up. Btw. per capita is not that important with exponential graph of yours.

So the age difference accounts for the 6x death rate difference ? That’s ridiculous.
I care about the death rate. People can get sick and recover and that happens every day. But you can’t be resurrected from the dead. Let me know when your graph and 11 day difference ever truly equates to the same number of deaths . Because like I have said before and I don’t think it’s a difficult concept, a person who has a 1% chance of dying as opposed to a 10% chance is a big deal.

Currently 3 Americans in every million are dying from this. In Italy it’s 124 people.
That is an unbelievable difference. Sure the US number will increase but it will never get remotely close to the Italian number.

[Killer Bob]

So the age difference accounts for the 6x death rate difference ? That’s ridiculous.
I care about the death rate. People can get sick and recover and that happens every day. But you can’t be resurrected from the dead. Let me know when your graph and 11 day difference ever truly equates to the same number of deaths . Because like I have said before and I don’t think it’s a difficult concept, a person who has a 1% chance of dying as opposed to a 10% chance is a big deal.

Currently 3 Americans in every million are dying from this. In Italy it’s 124 people.
That is an unbelievable difference. Sure the US number will increase but it will never get remotely close to the Italian number.

https://twitter.com/dorjemundle/status/1242858521168879617?s=21

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1242242283858206725?s=21

[usagre]

https://twitter.com/dorjemundle/stat...168879617?s=21

https://twitter.com/drericding/statu...858206725?s=21

Ah I see we are on to new graphs that continue the USA doomsday scenario. The 11 day Italy model is no longer useful because it doesn’t fit that narrative anymore as I have clearly shown. Let’s try Spain now. Or some other useful projection for the time being. God forbid we look at the numbers and entertain the view that possibly the US won’t be hit as bad.
I find it hilarious that the line of thinking is not even considered.

[usagre]

You can fit 7 Spain’s in the US and yet it is perfectly appropriate and an apples to apples argument to compare numbers in totality. Complete idiocy.

[Killer Bob]

Ah I see we are on to new graphs that continue the USA doomsday scenario. The 11 day Italy model is no longer useful because it doesn’t fit that narrative anymore as I have clearly shown. Let’s try Spain now. Or some other useful projection for the time being. God forbid we look at the numbers and entertain the view that possibly the US won’t be hit as bad.
I find it hilarious that the line of thinking is not even considered.

You have all important nations in this graphs.
10.000+ new cases and 150 deaths per day in the begging of the pandemic is not hit hard for you? My advise, don't look at raw numbers but how those numbers are changing with time.

[usagre]

You have all important nations in this graphs.
10.000+ new cases and 150 deaths per day in the begging of the pandemic is not hit hard for you? My advise, don't look at numbers but how those numbers are changing with time.

150 deaths per day is not hit hard at all. Again you have to put those numbers in the proper context with how many other people die from a variety of things and no one bats an eye.

And I took your advice last week when you told me that the only difference between the US and Italy was time. So I was waiting for that to bear out in the numbers and it never did.