Originally posted by Adon
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Euroleague and Eurocup suspended due to COVID-19
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Last edited by Killer Bob; 04-02-2020, 08:09 AM.previously known as Beno
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Originally posted by Killer Bob View PostIt’s a possibility, but we cannot organize our life based on that presumption. Second wave, if happens, will depends a lot on how first wave finishes. There’s no use to have discussion of how virus will mutated and become even more dangerous, because nobody can say anything scientific about that, but we can predict, what happens with the second wave if a large % of population is effected in the first wave. I’m kinda pessimistic how first wave will finish, but more optimistic about a future. But anything is possible of course.
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Originally posted by Adon View PostWe know with certainty that most part of the population will get infected unless we find a successful vaccine. Also, we know that the infected are a small part of the population for now. Everything else about September, no matter the influence of warm weather, is simple reasoning.previously known as Beno
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Originally posted by Killer Bob View PostThe question is what % of population is really infected at the moment, I believe much bigger % than official numbers show and especially how big % will be in 2 months time? When you get enough big % of infected and cured population, the spread is much slower and easier to control. That's why I don't believe that second wave will be worse than first, if virus remains similar.
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Originally posted by Adon View PostTrue, but we know enough for these parameters. For example, an order of magnitude of billion infected is needed to get a slower spread of infection (without lock down, with "natural" development). It's not going to happen until September probably and hopefully. So, in any case, whether there is a second wave or not, things in September don't look good.
Disclaimer, this prediction is just 1 of many possible outcomes/interpretations.Last edited by Killer Bob; 04-02-2020, 12:50 PM.previously known as Beno
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Originally posted by Killer Bob View PostI don’t know. Let play a little with math. US has 5.000 deaths, let’s say people on average need 20 days from infection to death and real mortality rate is 2%. That would give us 250.000 infected people 20 days ago. If we assume that growth rate is 25%, that give us 37 mio infected Americans at this moment. That would put America on good path to not be effected much in a possible second wave. Not exactly good projections for next months though.
Disclaimer, this prediction is just 1 of many possible outcomes/interpretations.
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Originally posted by Killer Bob View PostNothing wrong with math, data is obviously questionable, especially time from infection to death.
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Originally posted by Adon View PostIn fact, your model is wrong. Lock-down, social distancing, voluntarily or forced, hygiene precautions etc will affect the velocity of the spread. So, the height (peak) of the Gaussian curve will be lower and displaced further in time. I give no chance to reach it before September. If I am wrong, nobody will care for EL and UEFA in Automn.previously known as Beno
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The situation in the US (obviously) went out of control and the new fairy tale that the government will be telling the people is “Oh we might have so many dead but if it weren’t for our awesome measures, there would be 100 times more”3rd, Euroleague IBN prediction game 2019
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Originally posted by radallo View Posteverybody is going to lose money in this situation.
who invested more will lose more.
is that unfair? what can we do?
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Originally posted by Jazz View PostTheir CEO seems to have been particularly stuck to the idea of finishing the season. I remember we discussed that story about Virtus having some form of training sessions a couple of weeks ago.
Legabasket is expected to take a final decision by april10.
with lockdown extended to april13, I can't see anything else but a cancellation of the remaining games.
julian Gamble (virtus) is claiming the right sportwise decision would be to crown the 1st team in the standing as champion.EUROLEAGUEADDICTED
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Originally posted by radallo View Postyes, he's stubborn and even selfish IMO.
Legabasket is expected to take a final decision by april10.
with lockdown extended to april13, I can't see anything else but a cancellation of the remaining games.
julian Gamble (virtus) is claiming the right sportwise decision would be to crown the 1st team in the standing as champion.previously known as Beno
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