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  1. #501
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    Quote Originally Posted by Killer Bob View Post
    Compare yesterday's Italian numbers with yours in 11 days time and you will see that you will be much closer to Italy in deaths too. You had almost half of your deaths in last 2 days, why do you think is that? Maybe something with exponential growth rate and time?
    Ok I’ll do that. Just like I did it for the previous 11 days when you were telling me that in 11 days the US will look like Italy.
    We shall see. If at that time the US is having 3,500 daily deaths or so adjusted somewhat for Italy’s higher age average then I will admit I was wrong and the US was Italy. I wonder if in 11 days you will do the same if that is not the case.
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  2. #502
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    Quote Originally Posted by usagre View Post
    Ok I’ll do that. Just like I did it for the previous 11 days when you were telling me that in 11 days the US will look like Italy.
    We shall see.
    Italy 11 days before today - lower mortality rate.
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  3. #503
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    Quote Originally Posted by usagre View Post
    Before you stop please if possible since I am having such great difficulty in grasping the exponential growth and logarithmic logic. Give me something tangible. Something that has meaning. What will it translate in deaths. Give me an estimate that you believe. Something.
    We gave you charts, you dismissed them as lacking context, he gave you a very long article from a very reputable source, and you answered within 5 minutes, dismissing it as fake news. I daresay your aim is not discussion to find truth, but to defend Trump no matter what.
    Dilimde şarkıların gündüz gece
    Deli gibi aşığız Fenerbahçe
    Bu dünyayı yakarız senin için
    Şampiyonluk gelince

  4. #504
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    Quote Originally Posted by vivo View Post
    We gave you charts, you dismissed them as lacking context, he gave you a very long article from a very reputable source, and you answered within 5 minutes, dismissing it as fake news. I daresay your aim is not discussion to find truth, but to defend Trump no matter what.
    I had already read that article before he posted it. That’s why I responded that quickly. The truth is I am dealing with hard numbers that cannot be manipulated like projections can. If the truth leads me to say that the US will be hit harder than Italy then I will say it. But I won’t subscribe to graphs and projections that say that. I am looking at the numbers and doing simple math.
    What amazes me is how people are offended by the possibility that the US impact might be less than elsewhere for the average person. Or if offended is too strong of a term they fail to entertain the possibility that it could be the case.
    Do you think that has anything to do with Trump being president ? Of course not. It goes both ways.
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  5. #505
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    Quote Originally Posted by Killer Bob View Post
    Italy 11 days before today - lower mortality rate.
    Again you can interpret the number anyway you like but you can’t change it. On March 15 there were 368 Italian deaths.
    If there are 2,024 death in the US today it would be equivalent. On March 21st there were 793 Italian deaths their apparent peak. If the US is 11 days behind that would equate to roughly 4,300+ American deaths on April 1st. If not please stop using this dumb 11 day behind Italy metric.
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  6. #506
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    Quote Originally Posted by vivo View Post
    We gave you charts, you dismissed them as lacking context, he gave you a very long article from a very reputable source, and you answered within 5 minutes, dismissing it as fake news. I daresay your aim is not discussion to find truth, but to defend Trump no matter what.
    A very reputable source. Hang on a second so I can stop laughing. Ok here we go. A simple one minute google search of previous Trump related articles by the very reputable Atlantic generated these:

    Will Donald Trump destroy the presidency ?

    The Trump administration is corrupting the US government.

    My personal favorite, Containing Trump.

    The Trump presidency is over.

    Look I don’t expect you to comprehend the magnitude of what has happened in this country to the media since he was elected because you haven’t lived it on a daily basis.
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  7. #507
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    Quote Originally Posted by usagre View Post
    Again you can interpret the number anyway you like but you can’t change it. On March 15 there were 368 Italian deaths.
    If there are 2,024 death in the US today it would be equivalent. On March 21st there were 793 Italian deaths their apparent peak. If the US is 11 days behind that would equate to roughly 4,300+ American deaths on April 1st. If not please stop using this dumb 11 day behind Italy metric.
    I give up. My gift to you for the end. https://miniwebtool.com/exponential-...1=&n2=&n3=&n4=
    It is just fascinating what comes from 248 in just 11 days, if growth rate is 25%.
    previously known as Beno

  8. #508
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    Quote Originally Posted by Killer Bob View Post
    I give up. My gift to you for the end. https://miniwebtool.com/exponential-...=0.3&n3=11&n4=
    It is just fascinating what comes from 248 in just 11 days, if growth rate is 25%.
    I give up with you as well. I don’t know if it’s some kind of inherent character flaw, defense mechanism or what. But for the life of me you refuse to put down a number give me something that you personally believe can happen when it comes to deaths in the US when it comes to this virus. Have some guts put your name on a number. Stop hiding behind other people’s graphs or doomsday scenarios. For Gods sake if you are proven wrong will it affect you to such a great degree. What are you afraid of ?

    You subscribe to the 11 day Italian model like it was gospel. You are extremely informed on the subject judging by all the graphs, articles and tweets that you quote. So use your brain and all that info and tell me what the answer in your educated opinion is ?

    USA deaths on April 1st. —— ?

    Or

    April 6th is —- ?

    It won’t kill you. If anything you will gain credibility.
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  9. #509
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    Quote Originally Posted by usagre View Post
    I give up with you as well. I don’t know if it’s some kind of inherent character flaw, defense mechanism or what. But for the life of me you refuse to put down a number give me something that you personally believe can happen when it comes to deaths in the US when it comes to this virus. Have some guts put your name on a number. Stop hiding behind other people’s graphs or doomsday scenarios. For Gods sake if you are proven wrong will it affect you to such a great degree. What are you afraid of ?
    You should understand that nobody can give you exact number, nobody. Math can give you fair predictions based on past data. If nothing major will change and you will continue with similar exponential growth rate, formula is giving you very fair prediction, what will happen in 11 days, 3 weeks or a month. Governments are desperate to change those terrible predictions with lockdowns, shutdowns... Do you really believe that science and government are afraid for nothing? Europe is afraid and you should be similar afraid, because all available data shows that you will be hit hard. Trump is non issue here, except if he does something really stupid. Run formula that I gave you and you can see what happens in best case scenario and what in worse.
    previously known as Beno

  10. #510
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    Quote Originally Posted by Killer Bob View Post
    You should understand that nobody can give you exact number, nobody. Math can give you fair predictions based on past data. If nothing major will change and you will continue with similar exponential growth rate, formula is giving you very fair prediction, what will happen in 11 days, 3 weeks or a month. Governments are desperate to change those terrible predictions with lockdowns, shutdowns... Do you really believe that science and government are afraid for nothing? Europe is afraid and you should be similar afraid, because all available data shows that you will be hit hard. Trump is non issue here, except if he does something really stupid. Run formula that I gave you and you can see what happens in best case scenario and what in worse.
    This is ridiculous. I didn’t ask you for an exact number. Your best guess estimate based on all your graphs and information. Your answer seems to be better guarded than the gold at Fort Knox. Amazing.
    Just put down a few digits that’s all.
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  11. #511
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    Quote Originally Posted by usagre View Post
    This is ridiculous. I didn’t ask you for an exact number. Your best guess estimate based on all your graphs and information. Your answer seems to be better guarded than the gold at Fort Knox. Amazing.
    Just put down a few digits that’s all.
    My answer is very clear.
    previously known as Beno

  12. #512
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    Quote Originally Posted by Killer Bob View Post
    My answer is very clear.
    I am sorry I am a slow dumb American I missed it. Would it be a lot of trouble for you to write it down in digit form.
    So you believe that on April 1st the number will be ?
    Or April 6 the number will be ?
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  13. #513
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    Quote Originally Posted by Killer Bob View Post
    My answer is very clear.
    Yeah that’s what I thought. I am not holding my breath waiting for you to make a stand. Sounds to me like you either don’t have a clue which kind of renders all your graphs, tweets and articles pointless and don’t want to admit it, or you have a number in mind but are too scared to put it out there for fear of being proven wrong. Either way you really come across as having no balls. As if you predicted incorrectly it what somehow be important in the grand scheme of things. News flash you’re not that important.
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  14. #514
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    Quote Originally Posted by usagre View Post
    Yeah that’s what I thought. I am not holding my breath waiting for you to make a stand. Sounds to me like you either don’t have a clue which kind of renders all your graphs, tweets and articles pointless and don’t want to admit it, or you have a number in mind but are too scared to put it out there for fear of being proven wrong. Either way you really come across as having no balls. As if you predicted incorrectly it what somehow be important in the grand scheme of things. News flash you’re not that important.
    No, I just don’t want to play God.

    My prediction is pretty clear, US is in deep shit.
    previously known as Beno

  15. #515
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    Quote Originally Posted by Killer Bob View Post
    No, I just don’t want to play God.

    My prediction is pretty clear, US is in deep shit.
    Wow you are quite the narcissist. You are not playing God. I can assure you that your prediction will have no effect on what will happen.Lol. You have to be kidding me. Dude you are truly coming across like a pathetic sad figure with a view of your self importance that is mind boggling. You’re not that special or important.
    Silver medal 2012 Olympics prediction game.

  16. #516
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    Quote Originally Posted by usagre View Post
    Wow you are quite the narcissist. You are not playing God. I can assure you that your prediction will have no effect on what will happen.Lol. You have to be kidding me. Dude you are truly coming across like a pathetic sad figure with a view of your self importance that is mind boggling. You’re not that special or important.
    Nice to have conversations with you.
    previously known as Beno

  17. #517
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    Quote Originally Posted by Killer Bob View Post
    Nice to have conversations with you.
    Yeah I absolutely agree. How do you have a conversation with someone for whatever reason is scared to tell you what he thinks. ? Like I said that kind of fear for something as unimportant as your personal opinion on something is pathetic.
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  18. #518
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    Quote Originally Posted by Killer Bob View Post
    Nice to have conversations with you.
    Pardon my interference but since you believe that US follows a certain curve regarding the deaths, I can't see why you don't give some rough prediction using numbers.
    e.g. "on 1st of April, the number of deaths will be between 2 and 4 thousands" . That's my estimation btw.

    Another issue is this:
    In US health care is not free. I suppose there is a number of people infected by corona who died in their homes, without any medical examination. Those numbers don't appear in the stats obviously. In Greece, all infected who need help are monitored by the national health system, so the number of deaths is pretty accurate imo.

  19. #519
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    Quote Originally Posted by Adon View Post
    Pardon my interference but since you believe that US follows a certain curve regarding the deaths, I can't see why you don't give some rough prediction using numbers.
    e.g. "on 1st of April, the number of deaths will be between 2 and 4 thousands" . That's my estimation btw.

    Another issue is this:
    In US health care is not free. I suppose there is a number of people infected by corona who died in their homes, without any medical examination. Those numbers don't appear in the stats obviously. In Greece, all infected who need help are monitored by the national health system, so the number of deaths is pretty accurate imo.
    That’s all I am saying. It is a weaselly move. As for your second point I totally agree and would add that in NYC the epicenter for the US there is an enormous homeless population that has grown astronomically in the last 10 years mainly due to the policies of the worst mayor in NYC history. They too are probably not being counted.
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  20. #520
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    Quote Originally Posted by Adon View Post
    Pardon my interference but since you believe that US follows a certain curve regarding the deaths, I can't see why you don't give some rough prediction using numbers.
    e.g. "on 1st of April, the number of deaths will be between 2 and 4 thousands" . That's my estimation btw.

    Another issue is this:
    In US health care is not free. I suppose there is a number of people infected by corona who died in their homes, without any medical examination. Those numbers don't appear in the stats obviously. In Greece, all infected who need help are monitored by the national health system, so the number of deaths is pretty accurate imo.
    I had given him much more precise prediction, Italy(x-11)- something for lover mortality because of demographics.
    Last edited by Killer Bob; 03-26-2020 at 08:30 PM.
    previously known as Beno

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