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  1. #601
    Senior Member Killer Bob's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Adon View Post
    The think is that so many people believe the situation will be better in September than it is now. It's absurd. Even if there is a remission in Summer, there will be a worse second wave when the weather will get colder again.
    It’s a possibility, but we cannot organize our life based on that presumption. Second wave, if happens, will depend a lot on how first wave finishes. There’s no use to have discussion of how virus will mutated and become even more dangerous, because nobody can say anything scientific about that, but we can predict, what happens with the second wave if a large % of population is infected in the first wave. I’m kinda pessimistic how first wave will finish, but more optimistic about a future. But anything is possible of course.
    Last edited by Killer Bob; 04-02-2020 at 08:09 AM.
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  2. #602
    Senior Member Adon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Killer Bob View Post
    It looks to me that 90% in that discussion doesnít take seriously that debate, because they know the season should have been finished long ago.
    Obviously, I was not referring to you and a few others who are trying to talk sense on the matter.

  3. #603
    Senior Member Adon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Killer Bob View Post
    It’s a possibility, but we cannot organize our life based on that presumption. Second wave, if happens, will depends a lot on how first wave finishes. There’s no use to have discussion of how virus will mutated and become even more dangerous, because nobody can say anything scientific about that, but we can predict, what happens with the second wave if a large % of population is effected in the first wave. I’m kinda pessimistic how first wave will finish, but more optimistic about a future. But anything is possible of course.
    We know with certainty that most part of the population will get infected unless we find a successful vaccine. Also, we know that the infected are a small part of the population for now. Everything else about September, no matter the influence of warm weather, is simple reasoning.

  4. #604
    Senior Member Killer Bob's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Adon View Post
    We know with certainty that most part of the population will get infected unless we find a successful vaccine. Also, we know that the infected are a small part of the population for now. Everything else about September, no matter the influence of warm weather, is simple reasoning.
    The question is what % of population is really infected at the moment, I believe much bigger % than official numbers show and especially how big % will be in 2 months time? When you get enough big % of infected and cured population, the spread is much slower and easier to control. That's why I don't believe that second wave will be worse than first, if virus remains similar.
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  5. #605
    Efes fan Levenspiel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Adon View Post
    Indeed. Perhaps some people are starting to understand the situation now.
    my experience tells me that, no, they won't understand the situation.
    5 out 6 scientists say Russian roulette is safe.

  6. #606
    Senior Member Adon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Killer Bob View Post
    The question is what % of population is really infected at the moment, I believe much bigger % than official numbers show and especially how big % will be in 2 months time? When you get enough big % of infected and cured population, the spread is much slower and easier to control. That's why I don't believe that second wave will be worse than first, if virus remains similar.
    True, but we know enough for these parameters. For example, an order of magnitude of billion infected is needed to get a slower spread of infection (without lock down, with "natural" development). It's not going to happen until September probably and hopefully. So, in any case, whether there is a second wave or not, things in September don't look good.

  7. #607
    Senior Member Killer Bob's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Adon View Post
    True, but we know enough for these parameters. For example, an order of magnitude of billion infected is needed to get a slower spread of infection (without lock down, with "natural" development). It's not going to happen until September probably and hopefully. So, in any case, whether there is a second wave or not, things in September don't look good.
    I donít know. Let play a little with math. US has 5.000 deaths, letís say people on average need 20 days from infection to death and real mortality rate is 2%. That would give us 250.000 infected people 20 days ago. If we assume that growth rate is 25%, that give us 37 mio infected Americans at this moment. That would put America on good path to not be effected much in a possible second wave. Not exactly good projections for next months though.

    Disclaimer, this prediction is just 1 of many possible outcomes/interpretations.
    Last edited by Killer Bob; 04-02-2020 at 12:50 PM.
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  8. #608
    Senior Member Adon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Killer Bob View Post
    I donít know. Let play a little with math. US has 5.000 deaths, letís say people on average need 20 days from infection to death and real mortality rate is 2%. That would give us 250.000 infected people 20 days ago. If we assume that growth rate is 25%, that give us 37 mio infected Americans at this moment. That would put America on good path to not be effected much in a possible second wave. Not exactly good projections for next months though.

    Disclaimer, this prediction is just 1 of many possible outcomes/interpretations.
    37 million infected at this moment means over 700.000 deaths in 3 weeks time. I don't think your maths are good.

  9. #609
    Senior Member Killer Bob's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Adon View Post
    37 million infected at this moment means over 700.000 deaths in 3 weeks time. I don't think your maths are good.
    Nothing wrong with math, data is obviously questionable, especially time from infection to death.
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  10. #610
    Senior Member Adon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Killer Bob View Post
    Nothing wrong with math, data is obviously questionable, especially time from infection to death.
    In fact, your model is wrong. Lock-down, social distancing, voluntarily or forced, hygiene precautions etc will affect the velocity of the spread. So, the height (peak) of the Gaussian curve will be lower and displaced further in time. I give no chance to reach it before September. If I am wrong, nobody will care for EL and UEFA in Automn.

  11. #611
    Senior Member Killer Bob's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Adon View Post
    In fact, your model is wrong. Lock-down, social distancing, voluntarily or forced, hygiene precautions etc will affect the velocity of the spread. So, the height (peak) of the Gaussian curve will be lower and displaced further in time. I give no chance to reach it before September. If I am wrong, nobody will care for EL and UEFA in Automn.
    Starting point is before lockdown in US, I didn't calculate growth rate till April 1, so I don't know exact number, (0.25 looks reasonable to me), but lockdown is already calculated in it. Let say that my calculations is worse case scenario.
    previously known as Beno

  12. #612
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    The situation in the US (obviously) went out of control and the new fairy tale that the government will be telling the people is “Oh we might have so many dead but if it weren’t for our awesome measures, there would be 100 times more”
    3rd, Euroleague IBN prediction game 2019

  13. #613
    Senior Member Jazz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by radallo View Post
    everybody is going to lose money in this situation.

    who invested more will lose more.

    is that unfair? what can we do?
    Their CEO seems to have been particularly stuck to the idea of finishing the season. I remember we discussed that story about Virtus having some form of training sessions a couple of weeks ago.

  14. #614
    Senior Member radallo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jazz View Post
    Their CEO seems to have been particularly stuck to the idea of finishing the season. I remember we discussed that story about Virtus having some form of training sessions a couple of weeks ago.
    yes, he's stubborn and even selfish IMO.

    Legabasket is expected to take a final decision by april10.

    with lockdown extended to april13, I can't see anything else but a cancellation of the remaining games.

    julian Gamble (virtus) is claiming the right sportwise decision would be to crown the 1st team in the standing as champion.
    EUROLEAGUEADDICTED

  15. #615
    Senior Member Killer Bob's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by radallo View Post
    yes, he's stubborn and even selfish IMO.

    Legabasket is expected to take a final decision by april10.

    with lockdown extended to april13, I can't see anything else but a cancellation of the remaining games.

    julian Gamble (virtus) is claiming the right sportwise decision would be to crown the 1st team in the standing as champion.
    All this talking about continuing sport in this time is disgusting. The worst is of course Slovenian Ceferin and his UEFA. Now he’s threatening national leagues not to go after Belgian steps. Unbelievable. Cellino is totally right.
    previously known as Beno

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