2020 Lithuanian NT: in a chase of Olympic dream

[Shawshank]

interesting statictical article is about zalgiris players in euroleague that couls give us some idea about their possible roles in NT too.

Žalgirio“ puolimo ir gynybos reitingų skirtumai prie kiekvieno žaidėjo Žaidėjas Puolimo pokytis Gynybos pokytis Bendras skirtumas

Edgaras Ulanovas 1,7 -12,3 14,0
Thomasas Walkupas -3,3 -16,1 12,8
Zachas LeDay 2,4 -4,0 6,4
Marius Grigonis -1,5 -4,4 2,9
Artūras Milaknis 2,4 0,5 1,9
Paulius Jankūnas -4,0 -5,1 1,1
KC Riversas 5,7 7,5 -1,8
Nigelas Hayesas 4,2 6,9 -2,7
Jockas Landale'as -5,4 -0,3 -5,1
Lukas Lekavičius 1,9 15,1 -13,2
Martinas Gebenas -8,8 9,9 -18,7

Lukas with all provided individual offence is dead last in defence when he is on the floor zalgiris defence is worst as teams by a mile compared to other players.Even lkl teams begun to attack him with bigger guards.

With Lukas team offence is average,he just does everything on individual offensive tallent doesnt create for the team.He is truly what combo guard is give you offence right now and this element is needed for our NT that recently struggled with offence againts top teams.We need guy who can score by himself.

But we need to use Lukas how Sharas does from bench when all players feel some tiredness after first 5-6 minutes and fresh Lukas can attack them with his speed.In such way also hiding as much as possible his defensive weaknesses.Fresh starting 5 guards would took even more advantage of Lukas undersize than those same tired starters or their backup guards)

Walkup and Ulanovas are defensive horses that defends everything.You dont need numbers it very obviuos even watching which players holds entire zalgiris defence.+ Grigonis and suprising Jankunas with Leday are good defenders.

If zalgiris needs a stop they could put Walkup,Ulanovas,Leday,Jankunas and with healthy Grigonis and job will be done

Milaknis is solid in team defence by number wow

Jankunas on team defence is still very good.

[Straight forward]

That's Zalgiris. The team which polishes the system for 6 moths to get it going. NT will never have luxury to polish the system completely and will relay on individual talent and sheer hustle so much more than Zalgiris. That's why I'm very strict on player's defensive abilities. You just have to come out and to provide real D without much if any privileges, no-one will cover much of your ass. That's how players like Gecevicius, Milaknis looked unplayable in 2017 EB.


Here's things that I wouldn't want to see in NT ever again:

- Sabonis and JV clogging the paint. Dead end of basketball strategy, the past and super inefficient in tight FIBA court/defences.

-Ulanovas posting up. Same dead end. No advantage in speed, toughness, skills, but somehow we keep going for it and other guys just stand and watch. If there's no obvious midget against Ulanovas, forget about that type of balling.

- Spread the flooooooor. Spacing. Anyhow. Other than throwing complete no D pieces like Bendzius, but even he's worth a try at this point. If we don't get this and some serious shooting, we ain't gonna win at contemporary ball. There's teams with much more dominant offensive power and their D are at our level or even better (in France case f.e.). So they have all the spacing, shooting, ball movement and elite D, just as ours, but we pound the ball inside and play dead type of ball. Other than aggressive p'n'r attacking either by Grigonis or Lekavicius, our NT played outdated type of offence in 2019. Have shooters at all positions, specially at 4 (thus leaving aside you know who is a huge mistake).

- We can't have one ballhandler and creator in the line-up. Basketball doesn't work this way any more. There must be 2 ballhanders and the guys who can create their own shots. IMO, we needed more Grigonis- Kalnietis, Lekavicius-Grigonis, Kalnietis- Lekavicius combinations in 2019. Somehow Kalnietis and Lekavicius played together only 5 minutes. At this point I'm curious how Tomas Dimsa will look at NT environment and whenever he may have some shots to become such breed and off course looking forward to Jokubaitis, Brazdeikis, D.Giedraitis in the future. Any serious NT always have 2 handlers and creators/scorers.

- We can't play JV and maybe even current Gudaitis, D-Mo at 5 for some serious minutes. That's an open hole at D and it's gambling (in JV's case), not serious BB. If we will continue to pretend those changes has nothing to do with us and we'll run JV at 5 for heavy minutes, we will inevitably go down again. Opposition simply will sink their threes and jumpers of the p'n'r and turn the light out comfortably.

- In a long run we need skill at SF. We never had ballhandling and all around skills at three since Sikauskas. We badly need one. I'm not sure yet how much Sirvydis can provide of that, he played PG for some extent as a youngster, but I surely see Brazdeikis in this position and I think in the future we should consider Grigonis there as, if we will have more options at guards in the future. Spacing, all around skills, shooting and ability to switch at D is the future of ball game and it basically reaches all 5 positions. We either gonna catch up with these trends or we dig even deeper into becoming a BB province which we have been doing last 4 years.

[Shawshank]

basketnews lt projected such lineup for Olympics after watching how Maskoliunas used players in those 2 window games:

PG Kalnietis,Lekavicius,Jokubaitis
SG Grigonis,Giedraitis
SF Kuzminskas,Ulanovas
PF Maciulis,Bendzius
C Valanciunas,Sabonis,Motiejunas

honorable mentions : Gudaitis,Butkevicius,Milaknis,Jankunas,Brazdeikis


i agree that those are top 17 players by positions right now we have and most ready for this olympic games and that would be my full invite list. Final roster thats will be very tricky lets say from honorable mentions 2 of them would have made my team

It will be tough chooses between

Giedraitis/Milaknis/Butkevicius/Jokubaitis
Bendzius/Jankunas/Butkevicius
Motiejunas/Gudaitis

There are question marks about Jankunas and Brazdeikis showing up for diffrent reasons.

[Mindozas]

This window as start of preparations for OQT was ok. I don't mean the way we played, it was more or less expected that we'll struggle, but what we've got from it, maybe some finally will realize that it was not time for futuristic experiments, but for a new coach to start building a team for OQT. The time we have is very limited. It was ok that we had that cold shower, it was ok that game vs Czechs was tough. It showed lot of things where work need to be done. Only setbacks players' wise were illness of Kalnietis, as main PG was basically off, and less important one was that Motiejunas wasn't at best. But if his physical shape can be brought back to some extent, then being that big hole in defense is hardly so, cause he never was strong at it what so ever. It was pure Chinese look. Good for him that for now Gudaitis is nowhere near his pre-injury shape, so there's a chance. But I really hope that Gudaitis will gain back his game. Bendzius was solid yesterday, experienced shooter might always help and he added big plus to his name. Jokubaitis made some rookie mistakes, but left positive impression. I don't know about his chances to make OQT team, but anything might happen, depends on where coach will try to make more stakes at backcourt - playmaking or shooting.
That bnews line-up is close to what we'll see. But still 3 months to go, a lot will depend on shape of players

[zalias]

basketnews lt projected such lineup for Olympics after watching how Maskoliunas used players in those 2 window games:

PG Kalnietis,Lekavicius,Jokubaitis
SG Grigonis,Giedraitis
SF Kuzminskas,Ulanovas
PF Maciulis,Bendzius
C Valanciunas,Sabonis,Motiejunas

honorable mentions : Gudaitis,Butkevicius,Milaknis,Jankunas,Brazdeikis


i agree that those are top 17 players by positions right now we have and most ready for this olympic games and that would be my full invite list. Final roster thats will be very tricky lets say from honorable mentions 2 of them would have made my team

It will be tough chooses between

Giedraitis/Milaknis/Butkevicius/Jokubaitis

are u talking about rokas giedraitis? why do people underrate him that much? because he cant play in a system? how do you know that?

[Shawshank]

Jokubaitis made some rookie mistakes, but left positive impression. I don't know about his chances to make OQT team, but anything might happen, depends on where coach will try to make more stakes at backcourt - playmaking or shooting.

shooting ! we were dead last in 3pointers in 2019 and we all see where basketball goes both in nba and euroleague.You cant expect alot playmaking from 19 kid in olympics.There is reasons why Sharas still doesnt trust him in real men games.

Rokas era hopefully if everything right should start in 2021 and around 2023-2024 he should be ready to be main pg.Sharas is doing fantastic job with him,but playmakers role is hardest role to learn and you need right situation for that even then it takes years fro young player...

Thats why we have one real world class pg per decade

Rokas will end up in zalgiris situation after Walkup and Lukas in NT too and wont see minutes in 2020.

But shooting is must thing especially when NT is strugling with that in last 5 years.All our best shooters are really bad defenders and all our best defenders and at best are average shooters that was the problem and still is. But shooting must be adressed if we want to have fighters shot this summer.

[Straight forward]

I didn't change any opinions about Benzius. He sucked in game 1, he shot the ball well in game 2. That's all. He's a bad defender, ball stopper, and elite streaky shooter. Pick your poison, I would leave him aside, but knowing current situation at 4 it's obviously 50/50 situation if not better in Bendzius' advantage.

Dimsa at the end of the day didn't convince him. No swagger and aggression enough to expect to see anything substantial from him in OG. He had to stand out here to make a point, and he didn't.

Jokubaitis proved he can play. And his Euroleague experience would allow him to bring some quality minutes even in OG it self. Inconsistency? Sure, he will mess a little bit here and there, but he also provide some solid stretches. Legitimate candidate, IMO, and knowing Kalnietis age and current shape (who knows how his physical shape rounds in summer)...I probably would be looking towards Jokubaitis with an idea to use Lekavicius at 2 for some stretches.

Motiejunas to me looked like no NT material. Simply too liable at D for current ball. Not impressive and sharp enough at O. I really doubt D-Mo is any better than some Echodas at the moment, let alone the possibility that Gudaitis may shape up eventually in spring. That wouldn't even be close. Softy Birutis was better than D-Mo, simply better. No D-Mo in my roster.

Maciulis is playing like CL material. Still some good fundamentals, but that's not the piece which surely deserves the spot.

Regarding Maskoliunas, I liked how baldly he went small. Using Maciulis or Bendzius at 5 was a good decision. That's today's ballgame, you have to match opponents. D-Mo's few buckets didn't match opponents scoring power. I give Maskoliunas credit for making real deal rotation adjustments, playing 19yo Jokubaitis (maybe some will leave aside their passport BB philosophy), but still disappointed he left aside Kulboka, who I think as complete player (O+D) is the best PF today in the country after Sabonis.

After watching quallies and valuing what's left from some players, here's the best NT today possible, IMO. That's not the projection of OQT, that's how I build best possible NT today with a little credit to Brazdeikis (because of passport circumstances and expecting some offensive leaps potentially, loving his ability to but the ball on the floor and create his own shot):

Lekavicius, Kalnietis, Jokubaitis
Grigonis, Brazdeikis
Ulanovas, Kuzminskas, R.Giedraitis
Sabonis, Kulboka
Valanciunas, Gudaitis

[Straight forward]

Not only D-Mo looked unconvincing, specially with his cosmetic D, but I think the assumption that Gudaitis is having much worse season is a bit overestimated. He averages 7.3pts, 4,4rbs in very limited 16:52. That's still very solid. Sure, his minutes and scoring (as well as field goals %) declined, but not as much as some put it. His per 36 last season was 19pts, this season 16pts. Personally, I have little doubt current Gudaitis is much better player than D-Mo (defences are not comparable at all) and still has a bunch of season to get stronger till summer. I personally question that third real center at all in contemporary, but Gudaitis is really solid option to throw in if needed.

[Straight forward]

Here's Jokubaitis with NT jerseys. I think it wasn't his best game surely, but as debut was pretty damn nice. Mentally he's even more ready than say Valinskas, Dimsa. He has been thrown into the fire with Zalgiris at the big stage, so handling this seemed to be rather comfortable. Whenever he should make OT is an open question, but I would lean towards really considering him as an option for OQT. He was focusing mostly on feeding Birutis in this game, but I like his long kick outs and cross passes in the first place as a player. He really good at it and does that rather effortlessly. That's really promising because 19yo Kalnietis could only dream about the level of facilitating this kid possesses.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zvW1nFOaWBw&feature=emb_logo

[Hepcat]

Softy Birutis was better than D-Mo, simply better.

Softy? You've not liked Laurynas Birutis for however long on the basis of your subjective assessment of his form and physique. Yet whenever Birutis gets a chance to play he's put up the numbers. Why are you so reluctant to change your assessment of a player on the basis of his game production?

[Straight forward]

Softy? You've not liked Laurynas Birutis for however long on the basis of your subjective assessment of his form and physique. Yet whenever Birutis gets a chance to play he's put up the numbers. Why are you so reluctant to change your assessment of a player on the basis of his game production?

You're too sensitive towards some of my words I use. Softy is not an insult. Birutis is soft compared to Sabonis, JV, Gudaitis, real deal world class physical centers. I never said I don't like Birtutis, I simply judge him by standards I judge all players. Birutis is a traditional center who is only yet to fully bulk, he can't step out and switch for today's BB requirements, he has not jumper, he has no much of other skills than finishing under the rim offensively. His upside in contemporary BB is very limited, at the very best scenario he will be a short stretches EL player, thrown in when some other relatively slow 7 footer appears in horizon for more meaningful minutes. Putting up some numbers against center's less Czech Rep. is one thing, another thing is that he couldn't truly brake into Zalgiris rotation and the same Geben is filling the role (short stretches) much more succesfuly than Birutis. He may get there, but I'm not holding my breath.

That's how I see today's bigs hierarchy:

Sabonis
Valanciunas
Gudaitis
Echodas
Geben
Birutis
Kairys
D-Mo
Tubelis

I marked those who are really relevant in contemporary BB and can snatch serious roles. Echodas is mobile center who needs to bulk a little bit more and to improve D, but he can move his feet, rather athletic (solid leaper), shows glimpses of mid rage shooting, good shot blocker. I see Sabonis, Tubelis and Echodas as most serious pieces and best fits for today's BB and off course JV is by far the best traditional center. Others are basically not worth opening the mouth too much.

[madmax]

Birutis can play and I think he will be a solid center in the future, but at the moment he's just way far back at the center rotation and we have no shortage of quality in bigs for many years now...the only really worrying frontcourt position is PF, but with upcoming Tubelis it might be solved pretty soon as well. Now if only we had a magical wand and could summon a world class PG from somewhere...

[LuDux]

According to lkl.lt Birutis shot mid-rangers very well in Siauliai 19/37 (in 40 games) but attempted only 5 since.

[Straight forward]

Now if only we had a magical wand and could summon a world class PG from somewhere...

PG position is not an issue any more and with each year it should grow into one of our strongest positions. Even for this 2020 we have Lekavicius, Kalnietis, Jokubaitis as legitimate candidates and some Velicka as strong borderliner. That's the best PG depth chart since 2012 when we had coming into the peak Kalnietis and still relevant Jasikevicius.

As for word class...let's define a world class basketball player first. It's funny I barely found information on that, but here's what I have. It's a player who have great genetics, working ethics and exposure. In this case we had only one world class guard - Marciulionis because Jasikevicius never had great genetics (physical). Maybe young Siskauskas stands close to that, he was really athletic and had working ethics and exposure. Other description, stolen from soccer ""someone who wins games themselves or prevents losses or draws themselves with a consistency equal to or beyond 2 seasons". In this case Jasikevicius falls into world class definition, because he was simply leading the team and was the main figure in the crunch time. Personally, I would say that the world class payer is the one who can prevail in all world's leagues, and to be among top key players wherever he's playing. In this regard, again, we had only Marciulionis as a guard.

However, I don't think we need world class PG to dominate FIBA. We need the material of above average EL players/NBA players. Just as we did in 00's. Saras, Siska, Macijauskas, Stombergas- boom! When we had this package into one team (just for 2 freakin' tournaments though) we dominated. Only a fluke didn't allow us to brake into OG final in 2004. We would had beaten Italy 8 times out of 10, IMO, on a consistent basis, but one horrific shooting game for us and very good one for Italy and that's it.

[Shawshank]

There is seriuos question if qualification and Olympic games will be played at all this summer.But if it will be it's very high possibility that qualification will be without NBA players.

From NBA already comming news they maybe will restart season in June.Qualification is planned on 23rd of June.

I believe that would be good deal for us No JV +Domas ,but Slovenia won't have Doncic and Dragic wont change his mind.I truly believe Goran could do that after having 3 months off and lots of time with his family as that was his main argument why he is againts playing in NT again.

That Goran can still play shows his NBA stats comming off the bench from top 4 East team he averages 16.3 pts this season .For white European guard in NBA that's still elite numbers.

All 4 players teams are in playoffs brackets.If NBA will restart from playoffs.

2019/2020

Doncic 28.7+9.3reb+8.7assist. In 33min.
Dragic 16.3pts+5.1ass.+3,1reb. In 28min.

Sabonis 18.5pts+12.4reb+5asist. In 34min.
Valanciunas 14.9pts+11.2reb+1,8assist. In 26min.