2020 Lithuanian NT: in a chase of Olympic dream

[LuDux]

Janavicius player who have played with or against all lithuanian players and was all summer together with the best ltu players in 2019 by his opinion 5 best defenders in Lithuania basketball right now is:

Ulanovas,Sabonis,Maciulis,Butkevicius and Gustys

I actually was and still listening to that podcats. His LKL starting 4: Bickauskis Sabeckis Butkevicius Ulanovas Gustys. Other candidates Mazeika Kazakauskas and Skucas. Others mentioned Sajus at C

[Straight forward]

2 basketball bloggers and analysts took a shot in 2018 of predicting 2020 Lith OT. We'll never know who's right, but Shotaro’s picks were much more spot on:

https://medium.com/@shotarohondamoore/a-look-ahead-predicting-lithuanias-2020-olympic-men-s-basketball-roster-f53eff244bae

[Straight forward]

Here's interesting thing. Lithuania in 2019 WC was a 10th best scoring team - 84pts per game. But by a three point shooting we were 28th and dead last from top 10 teams. The separation between second worse shooting team from top 10 teams is obvious - Argentina 35.4, Lithuania 27.4. For comparison, in EB 2017 we shot 35% and in EB 2015 34.2%, and I wouldn't call those latter teams good shooting teams. So NT in 2019 shot the ball extremely bad and that's odd. Here's why:

Grigonis EL career threes % is 42.1%, Eurocup's 47.5
%
Lekavicius 39.6% EL
Ulanovas 37.2%
Kuzminskas 35.6%

Obvious indication that we were simple better shooting away from being elite scoring NT. Obviously our D, specially perimeter D sucked, but these numbers are quite remarkable. With huge struggle shooting we were among top 10. Our upcoming potential obviously lies on our ability to add shooting. Players above shooting to their capabilities would change a lot alone and I surely expect at least from Grigonis to stepping up and shooting well. Heading forward we should round Sabonis and PG (who will run multiple p'n'r) with shooters. This would make our NT elite scoring NT because Sabonis is a point center and we have good upcoming PG pedigree. Passing and angles will be there. A lot will depend how well such players as D.Giedraitis, Sirvydis, Brazdeikis, Kulboka and others will shoot.

[Straight forward]

Really odd case of Rokas Giedraitis. Had a beast of a season in EL for a crappy EL team, receiving some hype and NBA rumours, while in 2021 he will be 29yo who is yet to score his first bucket in a relevant FIBA game. Personally I wouldn't lay my hopes on a player who is looking to crack NT rotation at 29...

[Shawshank]

Here's interesting thing. Lithuania in 2019 WC was a 10th best scoring team - 84pts per game. But by a three point shooting we were 28th and dead last from top 10 teams. The separation between second worse shooting team from top 10 teams is obvious - Argentina 35.4, Lithuania 27.4. For comparison, in EB 2017 we shot 35% and in EB 2015 34.2%, and I wouldn't call those latter teams good shooting teams. So NT in 2019 shot the ball extremely bad and that's odd. Here's why:

Grigonis EL career threes % is 42.1%, Eurocup's 47.5
%
Lekavicius 39.6% EL
Ulanovas 37.2%
Kuzminskas 35.6%

Obvious indication that we were simple better shooting away from being elite scoring NT. Obviously our D, specially perimeter D sucked, but these numbers are quite remarkable. With huge struggle shooting we were among top 10. Our upcoming potential obviously lies on our ability to add shooting. Players above shooting to their capabilities would change a lot alone and I surely expect at least from Grigonis to stepping up and shooting well. Heading forward we should round Sabonis and PG (who will run multiple p'n'r) with shooters. This would make our NT elite scoring NT because Sabonis is a point center and we have good upcoming PG pedigree. Passing and angles will be there. A lot will depend how well such players as D.Giedraitis, Sirvydis, Brazdeikis, Kulboka and others will shoot.

im reapeating that about our awful shooting since 2015 for a while. My opinion main thing is there not that our guards is that bad shooters (they are average ones) but not a single recent our big can shoot ! If Valanciunas is our best long jump shooter from our bigs is ridiculous, he used to be the worst 5-6 years ago in NT big lineup

We had times when entire frontcourt was shooting long shots not couting Javtokas and later Valanciunas.I mean all of them Kleiza,Brothers,Songaila shooting touch was like guards.Even young Jankunas could make long jumpshots.Thats is very big problem in NT in last 3-4 years.After Kleiza and Brothers retired after 2014 champ all our bigs are bruisers and when we face world class defence we are strugling badly to score. I dont care that we put scoring averages against bad teams i see how we scoring against elite ones in seriuos games.



With limitation in backourt and no shooting bigs its really hard to find 75pts against elite defences.

[Straight forward]

Shooting has been a problem generally. In WC 2019 all players except Kalnietis struggled to shoot threes. Heading forward Kulboka should be most consistent stretch 4, shoots around 36% thus far in career and with his perfect mechanics this number should only grow. From guards I think D. Giedraitis will be most consistent. From 11 threes in ACB he knocked down 7, and has been reliable shooter in all fronts thus far. Sirvydis and Brazdeikis should add shooting at wing which we also lacked. If we want to truly utilize Sabonis (and JV) to their limits, we badly need stretch fours and shooting small forwards. Having another bruiser next to our centers and even more 2 bruisers at SF in Maciulis and Ulanovas, doesn't really make sense. That has been a problem, but we should have a lot of versatility moving forward hopefully. F.e. we can move beefy Brazdeikis to 4 in a small units at times. Having Kulboka, Brazdeikis at 4 - ~40% shooters - should add much more freedom and vitality to our offence.

[Straight forward]

All (or most?) Sabonis' buckets in WC 2019 here. Looking forward for stronger, tougher, more experienced Sabonis in OG 2021. Wonder what assist line he can provide. He brought 4apg with a crappy shooting around. Give him space in the middle at 5 and he should bring 16/10/6:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VlA_oJc0SWs

[Shawshank]

Shooting has been a problem generally. In WC 2019 all players except Kalnietis struggled to shoot threes. Heading forward Kulboka should be most consistent stretch 4, shoots around 36% thus far in career and with his perfect mechanics this number should only grow. From guards I think D. Giedraitis will be most consistent. From 11 threes in ACB he knocked down 7, and has been reliable shooter in all fronts thus far. Sirvydis and Brazdeikis should add shooting at wing which we also lacked. If we want to truly utilize Sabonis (and JV) to their limits, we badly need stretch fours and shooting small forwards. Having another bruiser next to our centers and even more 2 bruisers at SF in Maciulis and Ulanovas, doesn't really make sense. That has been a problem, but we should have a lot of versatility moving forward hopefully. F.e. we can move beefy Brazdeikis to 4 in a small units at times. Having Kulboka, Brazdeikis at 4 - ~40% shooters - should add much more freedom and vitality to our offence.

Thats only guessing and ifs about those brazdeikis and Kulbokas and more for 2024 olympics...

Im talking who will make open jumpers in next olympic 2021 after Sabonis and Valanciunas will get obviuos double teams?

It makes sense or not but Ulanovas/Kuzminskas is heads and shoulders better than anybody right now in that position is not even close.And those 2 are so so shooters.

But we need streach 4 that not only could shoot but also give atleast solid defence.Its not good enough to make open shots and be hole in defence like Bendzius or some weak shaky leg youngster.That will not work on that highest level like Olympics.

Nt didnt got more shooting from Pg-Sf positions in 2010-2014 either ,but it wasnt a problem,because bigs could shoot and streach the floor. Now if 2 players on the floor cant shoot its hard to score 70pst against best teams.

What our coaches was doing in 2015-2019 seeing that either way we wont be good shooting team,we just dont have players for that now, so atleast bring decent defenders and was playing them way more than some shooters who was benched and hoped we can win games under 74pts games with Valanciunas inside dominating + last year Sabonis.Kazlauskas manage to do that in 2015 with Valanciunas and Maciulis playing on kleiza level.

After that this plan failed , nobody could step up from SG-SF and be scoring leader when it matter most vs Greece,France,Australia games.Centers with double teams will not be allowed to score 20+ in such games if you play only from inside like our bigs does.

[Straight forward]

Thats only guessing and ifs about those brazdeikis and Kulbokas and more for 2024 olympics...

Im talking who will make open jumpers in next olympic 2021 after Sabonis and Valanciunas will get obviuos double teams?

It makes sense or not but Ulanovas/Kuzminskas is heads and shoulders better than anybody right now in that position is not even close.And those 2 are so so shooters.

But we need streach 4 that not only could shoot but also give atleast solid defence.

Kuzminskas doesn't bring solid defence at 4 Nor Ulanovas would. He's too small for such position. My answer at the moment is Kulboka, specially knowing that he got another year to get even stronger. I've seen him playing and, IMO, he's best PF after Sabonis in the country as complete player. He gives solid effort at both ends of the floor, fairly athletic, versatile, active and surely can shoot. As for Brazdeikis, I haven't seen him playing 4, so can't tell a word on it.

You play what you have. Let's face it, Maciulis and Jankunas are done in NT with the postpone. PF position will be constructed from these pieces: Sabonis, Kulboka, Masiulis, Kuzminskas, Bendzius and maybe Brazdeikis (undersized for 4 though), Sedekerskis (personally, even today I would take Tadas instead of Bendzius). To be honest, I'm starting to doubt we'll ever again see Kuz at 2017 level ever again. And I hope we leave softy Bendzius aside because it's playing with fire and it's not serious.

[Straight forward]

Watch Fournier scoring against us. Spot our D. 2 obvious problems. JV's or slow Jankunas' p'n'r defence and lack of big defensive guard to throw him in front of such big guard as Fournier. Adomaitis thrown Ulanovas on him, but that wasn't enough:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ukca4UuNDew

[madmax]

Watch Fournier scoring against us. Spot our D. 2 obvious problems. JV's or slow Jankunas' p'n'r defence and lack of big defensive guard to throw him in front of such big guard as Fournier. Adomaitis thrown Ulanovas on him, but that wasn't enough:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ukca4UuNDew

the only thing it proves is that Fournier is an NBA starting 5 level guard, capable of putting up All Star numbers. There's no guard on our team even close to his talent level, and basketball is a game where talent prevails 99%of the time

[Straight forward]

the only thing it proves is that Fournier is an NBA starting 5 level guard, capable of putting up All Star numbers. There's no guard on our team even close to his talent level, and basketball is a game where talent prevails 99%of the time

To some degree, yes. But you can always attempt to slow down even great ones with great defence. Our defence wasn't great to say the least. And I also noticed that under Adomaitis our transition D was always bad. In 2017 it was horrid, in 2019 better, but still an issue. Never noticed that with Kazlauskas, I guess that's the difference of mastery.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-dIk-7dklQk

[Serbian_Layup]

I've read your discussion about shooting struggles, so I will write a few words on that matter having watched your team the last couple of years.

Shooting is important, but even more so is a ball movement. If there isn't a fluid ball movement, it will be hard to find open shots. I think that is the biggest problem of Lithuanian team in the first place (which is to some extent in relation to Valanciunas/Sabonis not being able to space the floor, but not the main problem IMO). Maximize Sabonis in p&r sets and surround him with shooters. Mix it up with Valanciunas by creating some post up looks for him. That is your best playing card right now. Who are the best fits with Sabonis/Valanciunas remain to be seen. I don’t really trust Kalnietis/Lekavicius as p&r initiators as they are not known for this part of the game. And if you don’t utilize Sabonis in p&r, it's a waste of his talent. Maybe Grigonis? I remember him playing pretty well with your bigs in 2019. As for shooters it's not like you don't have them at all. Grigonis, Lekavicius are good shooters, Giedraitis is pretty good shooter playing at respectable level (I wouldn't leave shooters out just like that), then Kuzminskas, Kalnietis are a bit shaky, but they can get hot. PF position is questionable, Kuzminskas is more of a SF, Maciulis is getting old, Jankunas also, and I think Sabonis is best used as C (if he is gettnig extended minutes at PF, it means he is playing with Valanciunas which I think is not a good idea for both of them), so who is there to give you relible mintes at PF? A shooter would come in handy here. I think it's all about ball movement (off ball movement is just as important) and finding good roles for players, put them in the best possible position to succeed and results will come. Not just for Lithuanian team, but any team really. Of course, individual talent will take care of the rest.

And there is one another challenge between your best players because Valanciunas and Sabonis are too good to just split minutes at 5, but they are making your team vulnerable if they play together (they are taking each other's space and make you quite slow and predictable), so that is also something to deal with in the future. This is why a PF will change a lot of things for your team and give you much needed depth. Sabonis is not really a PF, he can’t shoot nor can he put the ball on the floor, and he definitely won’t have enough space to play down low because that is Valanciunas’ comfort zone. I think finding a guy at PF (shooter) who suits them both is truly important for any success. It’s better for them to just split minutes at 5, rather than playing empty minutes together just for the sake of having more minutes.

[Straight forward]

Yeah, pretty much agreed with most parts, Serbian_Layup.

I personally think 2021 and maybe 2022 will be the last chances for JV to prove he can be a key piece of a winning team in FIBA. The last time we were successful with him being among the keys was 2015 EB. After that it went down hill and with all the respect for JV's game, he didn't provide as big offensive boost as we expected him to bring and his p'n'r and perimeter defence has been a huge issue (those game winning shots by Mills and De-Colo in WC were the best illustrations). Personally, I think he should be a 20min player of the bench, highly dependable on the match-ups, not only direct, but also on opponent's guards, wings. Guys like Mills or Fournier, who can shoot of the dribble after p'n'r, is the nightmare for JV. He simply has no chance in such situations. There's a reason why traditional centers declined. Today there's too much shooting and athleticism from all the corners and traditional bruisers just costs too much defensively.

[Serbian_Layup]

Well, Valanciunas has his deficiencies (like most players), but he is a really good post player. It's just a matter of finding the best complementary pieces to get the most out of your best players. That's where the coaching hand is supposed to make a strong signature.