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Thread: Betting on WC2019

  1. #1
    Senior Member CoachZ's Avatar
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    Default Betting on WC2019

    In order not to spam the other topics with the betting stuff, that might not interest some members, I think it's better to have a separate topic.

    Anyway, feel free to point some value and let's get some money for coke and hookers.

    September 3rd Games - some of my picks

    Montenegro - New Zealand - H2 - All Blacks cover the spread of 6.5 points
    Brazil - Greece - H1 - Brazil covers the 13.5 spread
    USA - Turkey - H1 - Team USA cover the 20.5 spread

    The one that is bothering me a bit is Lithuania - Canada with a 8.5 spread. Seems that Canada has no chance to fight off the inside game of Lithuania but also I expect a much slower pace compared to the Australia game and Canada could cover it. Anyway, it's not something I recommend playing.
    Last edited by CoachZ; 09-03-2019 at 06:14 PM.

  2. #2
    Senior Member CoachZ's Avatar
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    Some player performances picks for tomorrow:

    Australia vs Senegal
    - Ingles over 4.5 assists
    - Ingles over 11.5 points

    - Landale over 9.5 points

    Montenegro vs New Zealand
    - Vucevic over 15.5 points
    - Dubljevic over 5.5 rebounds

    Japan vs Czech Republic
    - Satoransky over 15.5 points
    - Hachimura over 6.5 rebounds


    Germany vs Dominican Republic
    - Voigtmann over 9.5 points

    Lithuania vs Canada
    - Kalnietis over 5.5 assists
    - Pangos over 4.5 assists

    - Valanciunas over 14.5 points
    - Grigonis over 8.5 points


    Brazil vs Greece
    - Barbosa under 17.5 points
    - Printzesis over 9.5 points


    USA vs Turkey
    - Mitchell over 15.5 points
    - Korkmaz under 14.5 points

    - Turner over 6.5 rebounds

    Jordan vs France
    - Al Dwairi under 15.5 points
    - De Colo under 14.5 points
    Last edited by CoachZ; 09-03-2019 at 05:29 PM.

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    Point spreads in basketball are murder, I always play it safe with money line bets. Sometimes you have parlay a couple in order to get some value. I am holding out for the quarterfinals where I will definitely bet.

    From your player prop bets I like the overs points for both Vucevic and Valanciunas.
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    Efes fan Levenspiel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CoachZ View Post
    S
    Australia vs Senegal
    - Ingles over 4.5 assists
    - Ingles over 11.5 points

    Germany vs Dominican Republic
    - Voigtmann over 9.5 points

    Brazil vs Greece
    - Barbosa under 17.5 points

    USA vs Turkey
    - Korkmaz under 14.5 points
    how much do these pay? look pretty safe to me.

    I never bet in my life. what does spread mean? point differential?
    5 out 6 scientists say Russian roulette is safe.

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    Senior Member CoachZ's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Levenspiel View Post
    how much do these pay? look pretty safe to me.

    I never bet in my life. what does spread mean? point differential?
    They all pay 1.9 odds.

    Spread is the point difference for that odd. So let's say Germany is a 7.5 point favorite over Dominican, if you play Germany to cover spread, they have to win by 8 or more. If you play Dominican to cover the spread, it means they have to lose by 7 or less.

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    Senior Member CoachZ's Avatar
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    BTW, since this morning the spread on Canada has exploded from 8.5 to 10.5 points.

    I am starting to think that Canada can cover this, losing by 10 points or less. Lithuania is a favorite and they should win this, but it's a do or die game for Canada and I don't see them getting blown away by Lithuania.

    So, Lithuania vs Canada, Canada to cover 10.5 spread.

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    Senior Member CoachZ's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by usagre View Post
    Point spreads in basketball are murder, I always play it safe with money line bets. Sometimes you have parlay a couple in order to get some value. I am holding out for the quarterfinals where I will definitely bet.

    From your player prop bets I like the overs points for both Vucevic and Valanciunas.
    I don't do a lot of parlays, or if I do them, it's for a smaller amount. I usually play spreads or player performance. They pay even odds minus the bookies wig. If you can hit around 55% of these, you are profitable. Solid money if you hit 60% +

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    0-2 on my player prop bets both Valanciunas and Vucevic went under.

    I am a bit surprised that following this USA performance the odds at least at my sports book haven’t changed when it comes to winning the whole thing.

    USA still -180
    Serbia. +290

    I would put it at even.
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    Those stats fillers will give me a heart attack. Today had a parlay with Vucevic rebs o6,5, Fazekas o6,5, it went over and last one was assists of Kalnietis, needed 6. Was counting it all game long of course, finished with 5 according to livestats, damn was a bit pissed, nice money was on the table, now browsing in bookie site and baaam - money flows in out of nowhere - in game stats sheet Kalnietis has 6 assists... lol.
    They work so random there. In both rebs and assists. Yesterday was literally robbed with Deon Thompson 2 rebs. They simply ignored his offensive rebs twice, good that it wasn't decisive pick. On Sunday stats fillers were doing strange moves with Fotu rebs, luckily it finished good. It makes me think twice now to bet or not to bet on individual stats of players, you can never know what will happen. I could only imagine how feels the ones who today had Kalnietis assists under, ffs


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    Senior Member CoachZ's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mindozas View Post
    Those stats fillers will give me a heart attack. Today had a parlay with Vucevic rebs o6,5, Fazekas o6,5, it went over and last one was assists of Kalnietis, needed 6. Was counting it all game long of course, finished with 5 according to livestats, damn was a bit pissed, nice money was on the table, now browsing in bookie site and baaam - money flows in out of nowhere - in game stats sheet Kalnietis has 6 assists... lol.
    They work so random there. In both rebs and assists. Yesterday was literally robbed with Deon Thompson 2 rebs. They simply ignored his offensive rebs twice, good that it wasn't decisive pick. On Sunday stats fillers were doing strange moves with Fotu rebs, luckily it finished good. It makes me think twice now to bet or not to bet on individual stats of players, you can never know what will happen. I could only imagine how feels the ones who today had Kalnietis assists under, ffs
    Or if two games in a row Valanciunas robs you of nice cash

    Jonas will not be seeing my betslip any more

  11. #11
    Moderator Mindozas's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CoachZ View Post
    Or if two games in a row Valanciunas robs you of nice cash

    Jonas will not be seeing my betslip any more
    You are not the only one, JV rebs was probably one of the most popular picks today in LT, odds were dropping heavily, I was almost sold aswell. I guess there is army of people who would join you in Jonas headhunting


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    Now odds to win it are more appropriate.

    USA -140
    Serbia +185

    All others huge long shots 15-1 and up.
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    Spain has opened as 9.5 point favorite against Italy in my sports book. That’s way too many points. 6 would be reasonable.
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    Quote Originally Posted by usagre View Post
    Spain has opened as 9.5 point favorite against Italy in my sports book. That’s way too many points. 6 would be reasonable.
    I would take Italy there at that line. That is just crazy.

    What are the lines for Serbia vs Spain?

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    Quote Originally Posted by CoachZ View Post

    What are the lines for Serbia vs Spain?
    It doesn’t have that yet. Serbia 22.5 over Puerto Rico.
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    Lithuania 2.5 and in some places 3.5 point favorite over Australia surprises me a little. Even looks more appropriate.
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    Any opinions about the game Poland vs Russia?
    I really like that 2.15 on Poland.
    Also the game Italy against Spain is tempting.
    2.85 on Italy.

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    Spain 5.5 now and Serbia 30.5 those look more appropriate than yesterday’s spreads.
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  19. #19
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    USA opens as 11.5 point favorite at my sports book.
    +550 for Greece to win has a lot of value, especially with the US injury questions.
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    Brazil 9.5 point favorite over Czech Republic. Give me the points I don’t see a double digit Brazil victory.
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