Spanish NT 2019

[usagre]

@Darrell Armstrong

I don’t understand why you keep bringing up 2017. No one else has. Coach Z is comparing it to ‘15-‘16 and I specifically said 2016. 2017 Eurobasket as everyone knows was a weird tournament in which just about every team had huge absenses.
Stop referencing it. It is not relevant at all. I would love to see you do player comparison with that team.

I think this Spanish team will have trouble scoring in a big spot. All other top contenders have true go to guys if times get rough and a basket is needed. This is where Pau’s absence will be magnified. Luckily for Spain due to the tournament format this probably won’t come until the semifinals.

[usagre]

Darrell, usagre use to be really stubborn. I remember in the EL's playoffs thread (Real Madrid vs PAO), that everybody said Real Madrid was in the FF after the 2nd game (even PAO fans) but he was the only one who said that PAO was going to come back. He repeated that message day over day, and what happened? Real Madrid won the 3rd Game.

Read what CoachZ wrote, his knowledge about basketball is one of the bests in the forum.

I’ve been known to be right on occasion as well like predicting that the Toronto Raptors would win the Eastern Conference for months and even when things look bleak and was the only one when they were down 2-0 to Milwaukee.
Just my opinion my man nobody is perfect.

[CoachZ]

I respectfully disagree. I think Rubio is going to push up the tempo, taking advantage of a younger team with fresher legs and some good finishers (Juancho, Willy, Claver, and maybe Rabaseda, Llull and/or Jaime Fernández). Of course in halfcourt sets the ball is going to rotate much more and Marc is going to have the ball in his hands a fair number of plays. The transition game Rubio thrives on just could not be implemented with a starting lineup which featured both Gasol brothers, Navarro and a clearly hobbled Rudy.

As for the drop in talent, that's true. Well, actually it boils down to missing Pau and his proven ability to get a basket whenever was needed. As for the rest, let's compare 2017 roster to this year's:

Now absent

- San Emeterio: did a decent work playing 20 minutes per game as backup SF. This year we will have Beirán or Rabaseda providing basically the same.

- Sastre: played some good defence and didn't make mistakes in 19 minutes per game as backup SG. This year we have Llull, who, if healthy, is a much better player.

- Navarro: played almost 15 minutes per game. You could replace him with a bag of chips and come out as the clear winner. He couldn't stop anybody and wasn't even a decent spot-up shooter. This year we have Rudy, who at least can hold his own on defence and knocked down over 40% of his 3-point attempts this year.

- Abrines: only played for 15 minutes. I guess Ribas can take over towel-waving duties from him without issue. If anything, this is a positive as Ribas at least is a warm body in case everyone else fouls out or is otherwise unavailable.

- Vives: 3rd string PG, played 46 minutes total. Nothing remarkable. Pau Ribas can wave a towel in each hand and replace both him and Abrines. Nobody will notice.

- Rodríguez: OK, this hurts. Sergio completed an excellent tournament sharing PG duties with Rubio. We will try to replace his contributions with Colom and Jaime Fernández, but they aren't that good.

- Pau Gasol: he will be replaced by Claver. A clear step down, no way around it.

Coming back:

- Rubio: so far, playing much better this year. Clear role of leader, let's see if he keeps it up.

- Marc Gasol: a bit older, but still a good player. Will have to play less minutes and there are less games this year, so hopefully won't be an issue. Also won't have to share the paint with his brother, nor being forced to come out to three-point line to defend smaller players.

- Juancho Hernangómez: two more years of NBA experience under his belt. Starting SF and clearly much better player now.

- Willy Hernangómez: same as his brother. Much better player now, looks in great shape. Will play more minutes and replace some of Pau's scoring.

- Pierre Oriola: another player who comes back improved. A hustle player, will take over the role Reyes had years ago.


So, yeah. Missing Pau sucks. But otherwise SG, SF and PF positions are better this year. The absence of Sergio can somehow be mitigated by better play by Rubio and a plethora of backup PGs that can at least try on defence. And hopefully the tandem of Marc and Willy can provide some of the inside scoring we lost.

Unfortunately, the way transition game works, your center drags everything down there. Marc is a stationary player as of now and if you plan having a transition and uptempo based offense you will have huge problems. Here are key issues:

- Yes Rubio loves to run, with Juancho and Llull along there as well BUT in order to be a great transition team, you have to have a big guy running down the middle to open up transition. Who is that guy? Marc? Fuck no. Willy? Not that type of player. You can't be a successfull transition and uptempo team without a big that can play in that tempo. That means on both sides of the floor, because transition leaves you exposed. You want to run Marc and Oriola into ground?

- Rebounding. This will be a key issue for Spain in general, since there is no elite rebounder anywhere on the roster. Yes, guys like Rubio can help even as a guard, BUT as long as you have to worry about rebounding, you cannot run a transition game with success. If you leave rebounding to start transition to Marc, then you will not have a transition. If you use big guys to block out, and let guards take it into transition, you don't have bigs to run the transition. Anyway, it doesn't work.

The best bet you have is to play excellent defense and focus on half-court sets and let Marc work inside and pass out to open shooters.

[Mr Chacho]

I’ve been known to be right on occasion as well like predicting that the Toronto Raptors would win the Eastern Conference for months and even when things look bleak and was the only one when they were down 2-0 to Milwaukee.
Just my opinion my man nobody is perfect.

Man, you said that Pitino would do his magic to come back, and you even said that you would bet. Your faith on Pitino was too much. How you said after the PO, RM had a better team and a better chemistry (Laso achieved It).

[usagre]

Man, you said that Pitino would do his magic to come back, and you even said that you would bet. Your faith on Pitino was too much. How you said after the PO, RM had a better team and a better chemistry (Laso achieved It).

Like I said I got that one wrong by overestimating Pitino and the teams talent. My mistake since I wasn’t that familiar with his players. It was nothing personal against Real and this isn’t anything personal against Spain. I just think a Pau’s absence is not being given the attention and impact that it will have. And I also believe that Marc Gasol, Llull and Rudy have all seen a lot better days. I don’t see what’s so controversial about that.

[Darrell Armstrong]

@Darrell Armstrong

I don’t understand why you keep bringing up 2017. No one else has. Coach Z is comparing it to ‘15-‘16 and I specifically said 2016. 2017 Eurobasket as everyone knows was a weird tournament in which just about every team had huge absenses.
Stop referencing it. It is not relevant at all. I would love to see you do player comparison with that team.

I think this Spanish team will have trouble scoring in a big spot. All other top contenders have true go to guys if times get rough and a basket is needed. This is where Pau’s absence will be magnified. Luckily for Spain due to the tournament format this probably won’t come until the semifinals.

I bring that up because it is the closest reference. Also a team that had significant shortcomings (I mean, SGs were a washed-up Navarro and never-been Sastre) and still competed at a high level. As in 2013, then without a go-to scorer, only bowed out against the eventual champion. You can chalk it up to absences, but, have you seen Canada's team recently? Or Australia's? It's not like everyone else brought all their best players.

But well, if you want to compare that roster with the Olympics one, I'll oblige:

PGs were mostly the same as 2017: Rubio and Rodríguez, with a Calderón cameo. Actually none of them were at the top of his game. Very erratic shooting and bad decision-making at times. They were much improved the following year.

SGs were also not a bright spot: an equally ineffective Navarro, 6 minutes from Wolverine, and Llull getting the most burn but bringing mostly defence and missed shots. He only connected on 30% of his three-pointers and failed to score even 9 points per game in 26 minutes. May be a bigger name, but didn't do much more than Sastre in 2017.

SFs weren't stellar, also: Rudy was effective, but clearly playing out of position, and Claver only contributed on one side of the court. They averaged 13 points per game. Next year San Eme and Juancho would score 15. I like Rudy, at least when he's not flopping or faking a gruesome death, but Juancho is the better SF.

At PF, it's debatable. That year we had Mirotic, who was the second scorer and is a better fit for the modern game. But in 2017 we had Pau as the starting PF. Pau was a better scorer and rebounder, and a liability in defence when the other teams played 4 shooters. Reyes was the backup and played mostly as a garbage man. Had a lot of trouble scoring, and at this stage in his career I'd go with Oriola for that role, if you don't mind.

And last but not least, the center in 2016 was Pau the Great himself, backed up by young Willy. Pau had to play a lot of minutes and you could clearly see that in the final three games he was skipping some plays in defence. Still was the hero of the bronze medal game. But, next year we had Marc and an improved Willy manning this position. I mean, inside play did not take a big hit from 2016 to 2017 as basically Marc replaced Mirotic (I'd go with a true PF alongside Pau, but you could make a case for the twin Gasol towers as well), Oriola replaced Reyes (slightly favor Oriola), and Willy had a year of NBA experience under his belt.

So, if you can point out to me where was the talent dropoff, it would be much appreciated.

[Darrell Armstrong]

Willy? Not that type of player.... there is no elite rebounder anywhere on the roster.

Have you seen Willy lately?

I agree Marc is not made for transition game. We may see two different lineups and game plans, one with Rubio and finishers, the other with Marc and shooters. But considering we're dealing with the genius coach that kept Marc and Pau in the game when Slovenian bigs were raining threes on us, I wouldn't bet on it.

Let's see. Looking forward to that practice game against Team USA.

[usagre]

Again I am throwing out 2017 because of the lack of competition in general for that tournament.
My comparison is 2016 and now. World Events, not a pseudo Eurobasket that was what 2017 was.

2016 you had minutes

Pau. 28
Rudy. 27
Mirotic. 26
Llull. 26
Sergio. 21
Rubio. 17
Navarro. 15
Reyes. 15

I don’t see how you can argue that 2019

Rubio, Rudy, Juancho, Claver, Marc Gasol, Llull and Willy is not a major downgrade.

Pau was a 16 and 11 NBA guy still in 2016 something Marc Gasol even in his prime had trouble duplicating let alone at this stage of his career. Pau averaged 20 and 9 in the tournament. Where will you replace this kind of production ?
Mirotic was a solid second scoring option averaging 13 points a game on excellent efficient shooting. You being downgraded here as well. Rudy obviously at 31 as opposed to 34 was a way better player. Another downgrade. Llull has always been kind of a disappointment when it comes to the National team as opposed to Real but still he’s 3 years older now and not to far removed from a serious injury. Another downgrade. Finally Sergio, Rubio point guard combo is better than now as well.
Another downgrade. Bench is probably an upgrade now since Reyes and Navarro were old and as you have stated more sentimental picks than anything.

The draw is definitely in Spain’s advantage and basically only Italy and Argentina/Russia stand in their way from a semifinal appearance. I definitely think they will get there. In my opinion the difference is that after that I think they lose to anyone they play in the semifinal and in the third place game as well. I will be very surprised if they gain an automatic Olympic birth. They will be in the Olympic qualifying tournament most likely.

Watching Spain these last 15 years in World Events I have come to expect more from them than I do now, that’s all I am saying. Maybe they will surprise me. If they do I will be the first to admit I was wrong about them.

[reamily]

dont underestimate spain..

[usagre]

dont underestimate spain..

I have them losing in the semifinal and finishing in fourth place. If you believe that’s underestimating them then yeah I guess I am.

[CoachZ]

I have them losing in the semifinal and finishing in fourth place. If you believe that’s underestimating them then yeah I guess I am.

Sometimes when I read this, I get a feeling like there are 6 medals to give around to teams when people are posting.

"Don't Sleep on Spain. Old Wolves know how to fight"
"Don't count out Serbia without Teo, they still got it"
"Lithuania has the fighting spirit"
"Giannis could tear it up"
"France always finds a way to be competitive"

Basically, whoever you pick to underperform, you gonna get some slack. So, just chill and let the tournament play out. Somebody will have to fail in the end, no enough medals to give out

[Darrell Armstrong]

Again I am throwing out 2017 because of the lack of competition in general for that tournament.
My comparison is 2016 and now. World Events, not a pseudo Eurobasket that was what 2017 was.

2016 you had minutes

Pau. 28
Rudy. 27
Mirotic. 26
Llull. 26
Sergio. 21
Rubio. 17
Navarro. 15
Reyes. 15

I don’t see how you can argue that 2019

Rubio, Rudy, Juancho, Claver, Marc Gasol, Llull and Willy is not a major downgrade.

Pau was a 16 and 11 NBA guy still in 2016 something Marc Gasol even in his prime had trouble duplicating let alone at this stage of his career. Pau averaged 20 and 9 in the tournament. Where will you replace this kind of production ?
Mirotic was a solid second scoring option averaging 13 points a game on excellent efficient shooting. You being downgraded here as well. Rudy obviously at 31 as opposed to 34 was a way better player. Another downgrade. Llull has always been kind of a disappointment when it comes to the National team as opposed to Real but still he’s 3 years older now and not to far removed from a serious injury. Another downgrade. Finally Sergio, Rubio point guard combo is better than now as well.
Another downgrade. Bench is probably an upgrade now since Reyes and Navarro were old and as you have stated more sentimental picks than anything.

The draw is definitely in Spain’s advantage and basically only Italy and Argentina/Russia stand in their way from a semifinal appearance. I definitely think they will get there. In my opinion the difference is that after that I think they lose to anyone they play in the semifinal and in the third place game as well. I will be very surprised if they gain an automatic Olympic birth. They will be in the Olympic qualifying tournament most likely.

Watching Spain these last 15 years in World Events I have come to expect more from them than I do now, that’s all I am saying. Maybe they will surprise me. If they do I will be the first to admit I was wrong about them.

Well, considering our past results in the World Cup, making it out of QFs is already going to be a major leap forward

I am comparing 2016 squad vs. 2017 because I was told that's where the big downgrade in quality happened. I'm arguing that there's not much difference between 2016 - 2017 - 2019. Other than name recognition, and the lack of a go-to scorer. Would I choose a Mirotic-Pau inside duo instead of the current one? For sure, but it's not the end of the world.

Now that you mention production, let's use that as a metric. As you say, Pau averaged almost 20 and 9, but he had to save his energy for doing the heavy lifting on offense, so his defence was lacking, specially in the last couple of games. As an example, he was averaging more than 2 bpg at the beginning of the tournament, and then blocked just one shot on each of the final 2 games in spite (or maybe because) of playing more than 30 minutes. I have no doubt Willy and Marc can match the 25 points and 12 rebounds we got in 2016 from the C position, while providing better rim protection at the same time. Not a downgrade in terms of production considering both sides of the court; but neither is the closer Pau was. I'll give you that.

Mirotic and Reyes combined for 19 points per game while shooting 46% from the field. This kind of offensive production is going to be hard to replicate with just Claver and Oriola. Both are scrappy scorers, but their forte isn't creating their own shots. They will provide better defence and rebounding, but I don't expect combining for even 15 points per game. I accept we're worse off this year at this position.

On the other hand, Rudy and Claver averaged just 13 points per game. I hope Juancho and whomever ends up as the backup SF (Beirán or Rabaseda, at this point) will top that number. To boot, Juancho has 10 cm and 20 kg on Rudy and can do a much better job defending bigger players and rebounding. We'll see, but I think this is a position we have upgraded, and could somehow compensate for the lack of scoring from the other forwards.

As for the SGs, Llull and Navarro combined for 13 points also, albeit with terrible percentages. They connected only on 28% of their three-pointers, while shooting a high amount of them. Navarro was also a defensive liability of the first order. Any other year I'd say we couldn't do worse, but I just cannot predict what's going to happen with our guards this year. We'll probably bring 4 SGs (Rudy, Llull, Jaime Fernández and Pau Ribas) and I can only hope at least one of them gets hot and provides the outside scoring we need. Not holding my breath, though. I'd call it a tie until proved wrong.

Finally, the point guards. Actually if Rubio has a good tournament he'll easily surpass what Rodríguez, Calderón and himself were able to do in 2016. They also scored 13 points (a magic number, it seems) with very poor percentages (28% from three). And a little over 7 assists per game. Backup PG though, is a lottery. We bring other 4 players able to play point in a pinch (Colom, Jaime Fernández, Llull and Ribas) and, for the life of me, I cannot say if any one of them is going to be up to the challenge.

I guess we'll have a better idea after the final roster and rotation are set.

[Darrell Armstrong]

Seeing players falling injured left and right, I hope coach Scariolo puts Ricky and Marc into a hibernation chamber and doesn't unfreeze them until the second round. We don't have a replacement for them, neither hope to advance without them.

The next game against Dominican Republic should be one for the scrubs to fight to death for the last spots on the team before flying to China. No need to run any risk.

[usagre]

I hope coach Scariolo puts Ricky and Marc into a hibernation chamber and doesn't unfreeze them until the second round. We don't have a replacement for them, neither hope to advance without them..

That makes a lot of sense. Those are two of the better players in this entire tournament and there’s no need to push them when you don’t have to. Most likely only second round game potentially vs Italy will matter and probably the second round game vs Serbia for seeding purposes and to be on opposite side of bracket than US. I thinks it’s 90% that Spain gets to the semis in my opinion.

[Darrell Armstrong]

Coach Scariolo has announced the final roster before the final friendly in Spain. Diop and Jaime Fernández won't travel to China.