2020 Olympic Qualifying Tournaments

[usagre]

25.5/ 12.3/ 5 PO campaign perfectly match his FIBA performance...

6 game playoff series against Toronto

38.5 minutes 22.7-13.5-5.5. 44.8%

5 game World Cup Tournament

24.9 minutes. 14.8-8.8-2.4 52.2%

So factor in 13.5 more minutes a game and a supporting cast infinitely better than what he had with Greece and let me know what you see now.

[Straight forward]

I let you to answer my question: why young NBA MVP and probably the most athletic player in the NBA played almost 14 minutes less in FIBA game? Because of crappy teammates again?

[usagre]

I let you to answer my question: why young NBA MVP and probably the most athletic player in the NBA played almost 14 minutes less in FIBA game? Because of crappy teammates again?

You are really surprising me. You really don’t see how having the shooters that he has in Milwaukee as opposed to the horrible shooting Greek teammates is the determining factor on how successful he is and not the fact that the court is a couple of centimeters larger ? I hate the no defensive 3 second argument because it’s moot. They never call it in critical times and especially in the playoffs. The lane collapses when he drives in both the NBA (games that matter) and Fiba tournaments. It’s about having teammates that will punish the opponents for doing this. Greece doesn’t and that is the deciding factor in his success more than anything.

[Straight forward]

Greece was right in the middle of WC teams by threes % (top 16) and 9th in 2 %. It's not some Cote d'Ivoire. Sure, Bogdanovic had Bucks level players around him all over. Sure, Scola had that. It's an argument, but you can't put everything on teammates, brah. There are differences between FIBA and NBA. He played less because intensity of the games are higher, because corridors are even more narrow and those collapses are much more deadly, there's no room to escape in many cases to explode with his athleticism as he does in NBA.

[usagre]

Greece was right in the middle of WC teams by threes % (top 16) and 9th in 2 %. It's not some Cote d'Ivoire. Sure, Bogdanovic had Bucks level players around him all over. Sure, Scola had that. It's an argument, but you can't put everything on teammates, brah. There are differences between FIBA and NBA. He played less because intensity of the games are higher, because corridors are even more narrow and those collapses are much more deadly, there's no room to escape in many cases to explode with his athleticism as he does in NBA.

We can agree to disagree for the most part.
I look at Giannis as a flawed player. Yes he was the MVP and deservedly so. But that’s a regular season award and the flaws are eventually exposed in the playoffs. And my main point is that those flaws are present in Fiba or NBA play. Unless he rounds out and improves his game, in my opinion you can not and will not win a championship with him as your teams best player. That’s why last year going into the Toronto series when everyone was salivating over him and the Bucks I predicted the Raptors would win.

[usagre]

Quantifying it is a silly exercise but for the purposes of this discussion here goes in my opinion.

Success in FIBA world events :

Talent. 55%
Luck, one and done factor. 20%
Coaching, team cohesion 15%
Fiba differences, rules, adjustment 10%

[usagre]

If anything I might increase the luck scenario. Think of it this way.
If the NBA playoffs were decided in this manner all 16 teams have a legitimate shot at being champions.
All they would have to is win once against 4 consecutive opponents on a neutral floor. They all can do that.
But in the reality of a series you narrow those serious contenders to just a couple of teams. That’s why a lot of this analysis is rendered irrelevant. Teams get hot and or lucky and can outperform their abilities in such short spans. We should always consider this and not underestimate the role it plays in these tournaments.

[Katastroika]

I have to add that we all should consider absences again. I am not sure if e.g. Giannis will play this tournament if the Bucks reach the NBA final (unlikely for me, but possible achievement). Bogdanovic, if neglecting contract extension proposal of Kings front office will sign a new contract and won't play, Jokic same situation, Vasa Micic will go in NBA quite sure next summer, so one more absence for Serbia etc. etc.

Out of some reason I think that again Lithuania will have the strongest possible roster and Canada will be weakened a lot. Maybe they can create positive atmosphere with home court tournament but knowing how Jokic looked the first games in this season I think Karnisovas will do everything possible to avoid Jokic and Murray to play next summer.

[usagre]

@Katastroika
That’s a good point. The late June timing of this tournament is going to be a factor. I don’t understand why they moved it up from where it was originally scheduled. Luckily for Canada, other than Murray their main guys aren’t on top level teams that could go deep into the playoffs so they might be ok.

[usagre]

If Giannis doesn’t play, Pitino or no Pitino I don’t think Greece makes it. I would favor all 4 hosts over them in such a scenario. Again this is assuming that those other teams have most of their key guys.

[mojo13]

Calling Canada “weakened” may be the wrong word. We we be much better than the summers World Cup team.
I suppose you are saying “weakened” relative to a full turnout, but let’s be honest that will never happen in today’s b-ball world. There will always be injuries, free agents, agent and club interference etc. and plenty of other reasons for opt-out.

I do know Nick Nurse is recruiting at every stop and the Canadians are wined and dined when they come to Toronto to play the Raptors. One cool item is each guy gets a video montage of his “Canadian Bball pedigree” on the jumbotron further laying down the public pressure. Even the media is finally putting good pressure on these guys every chance they get. I’m optimistic we will get a good turnout relative to last summer.

Tristan Thompson is the the main free agent but he can be extended mid season by the Cavs. Dillon Brooks is the other but he came out yesterday saying he was playing “no matter what, contract or no contract”. We will see if that is BS but I feel the momentum, and more importantly, the peer pressure amongst the players mounting.

[Straight forward]

Here's the perfect article on Giannis' FIBA campaign and some obvious differences between NBA and FIBA. There's the things which usagre emphasized so much, but surely not only that, good read:

"Why was the best player in the world last season so ordinary in a signature international tournament? There are many answers to this question, but they all revolved around the same theme: Antetokounmpo just isn’t built for FIBA’s style of play, which tends to be slower, more rigid, more compressed, and more physical than that of the NBA. Slow, rigid, compressed, and physical are not words to describe Antetokounmpo’s brilliance. Even his physical strength manifests itself best when he’s on the run, something that happens far less often in a FIBA setting."

https://www.sbnation.com/2019/9/10/20855719/giannis-antetotkounmpo-greece-fiba-world-cup-2019-its-ok

[Katastroika]

Calling Canada “weakened” may be the wrong word. We we be much better than the summers World Cup team.
I suppose you are saying “weakened” relative to a full turnout, but let’s be honest that will never happen in today’s b-ball world. There will always be injuries, free agents, agent and club interference etc. and plenty of other reasons for opt-out.

I do know Nick Nurse is recruiting at every stop and the Canadians are wined and dined when they come to Toronto to play the Raptors. One cool item is each guy gets a video montage of his “Canadian Bball pedigree” on the jumbotron further laying down the public pressure. Even the media is finally putting good pressure on these guys every chance they get. I’m optimistic we will get a good turnout relative to last summer.

Tristan Thompson is the the main free agent but he can be extended mid season by the Cavs. Dillon Brooks is the other but he came out yesterday saying he was playing “no matter what, contract or no contract”. We will see if that is BS but I feel the momentum, and more importantly, the peer pressure amongst the players mounting.

Yeah, bro. I meant of course in terms of a hypothetical ALL CANADA full hardcore 5 star roster which would be a serious medal contender in Tokyo - SERIOUS. We have very much the same problems like Canada (also in the past), I completely understand your situation.

[Katastroika]

Kokoskov will be new head coach of Serbia for the next campaign. A good solution.

[ZaliaBalta]

According to 24sek.lt, the brackets should be formed by the rating:

(1) Serbia (6), Greece (7), Lithuania (8), Russia (9)

(2) Czech Republic (10), Brasil (11), Italy (12), Poland (13)

(3) Croatia (14), Turkey (15), Slovenia (16), Puerto Rico (17)

(4) Germany (18), Dominican Republic (19), Venezuela (20) Canada (21)

(5) New Zealand (24), Mexico (25), China (27) (South) Korea (30)

(6) Angola (32), Tunisia (33), Senegal (35), Uruguay (43)


According to the same source, FIBA will take into account the geographical location of the tournaments, which probably tells, that groups with european hosts will consist of three european teams (out of 6).

The tournament system goes as follows:

6 teams are divided into two groups of 3 teams and play one game against their opponents of the group.
1st and 2nd place of each group goes to the semi finals
1st seed of group A plays against 2nd seed of group B and vice-versa.
Winners go to the Final.
Champion goes to the Olympics.

Getting 4 victories gives a ticket to Tokyo without any doubts, in some cases 3 wins would also be enough.

Although, it is not officially confirmed by FIBA, the reporters probably heard this sytems somewhere in the background talks, and i believe that this is the exact system that we are going to witness during the Olympic Qualification Tournaments.