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Thread: 2020 Olympic Qualifying Tournaments

  1. #1
    Senior Member soulis79's Avatar
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    Default 2020 Olympic Qualifying Tournaments

    Let’s talk about the upcoming Olympic Qualifying tournaments. After the conclusion of the FIBA World Cup we will know the seven teams for each geographical region that will compete at the Olympics (2 from Europe and America, one From Oceania, Asia and Africa). Adding the host nation to them, Japan, we sum up to number eight. So that means that the rest berths for the Olympics are four.

    At 2019 FIBA World Cup 32 nations will compete for the Olympic and Pre-Olympic tournaments. After the conclusion of the tournament FIBA will announce the new FIBA rankings and the puzzle of the pre-Olympic tournament will start to take shape.

    In order to understand better how the rankings will work after the tournament here is the list of the national teams that participated at 2010 FIBA World Cup but failed to reach this year tournament. These are: 8th Slovenia, 14th Croatia and 20th Lebanon. Let's keep that in mind. These three nations will fall to FIBA Rankings because the Olympic Cycle will move one year later(2011). But there are some teams that likely will rise up to the rankings after the end of the World Cup. These teams are Dominican Republic and Venezuela from America, Philippines and Korea from Asia, Senegal and Nigeria from Africa, Italy, Poland, Montenegro and Czech Republic from Europe. The reason is that they will collect points from their participation to the event. At the 2010 World Cup they didn't took part.

    Now let’s assume that the world cup finishes and the Olympic tickets are awarded to the best teams. Here is an hypothetical scenario, my scenario that depends only to current FIBA rankings. No team strengths, injuries, etc.

    First round
    Gr. A: 1. Venezuela 2. Poland 3. China 4. Cote D'ivoire
    Gr. B: 1. Argentina 2. Russia 3. Korea 4. Nigeria
    Gr. C: 1. Spain 2. Puerto Rico 3. Iran 4. Tunisia
    Gr. D: 1. Serbia 2. Italy 3. Philippines 4. Angola
    Gr. E: 1.USA 2.Turkey 3. Czech Rep. 4. Japan
    Gr. F: 1. Greece 2. Brazil 3. Montenegro 4. New Zealand
    Gr. G: 1. France 2. Dominican Rep. 3. Germany 4. Jordan
    Gr. H: 1. Lithuania 2. Australia 3. Canada 4. Senegal.
    Australia is the Oceania's participant to the Olympics
    Second Round

    Gr. I: 1. Argentina 2. Russia 3.Venezuela 4. Poland
    Gr. J: 1.Spain 2. Serbia 3. Italy 4. Puerto Rico
    Gr. K: 1.USA 2. Greece 3. Brazil 4. Turkey
    Gr. L: 1. France 2. Lithuania 3. Australia 4. Dominican Rep.
    After this round Argentina and USA are becoming the first teams to reach the Olympics from Americas region. Venezuela, Poland, Italy, Puerto Rico, Brazil, Turkey and Dominican Rep. are the seven first teams for the pre-Olympic tournaments.
    Quarterfinals
    Serbia defeats Argentina
    USA defeats Lithuania
    Spain defeats Russia
    France defeats Greece
    We suppose that USA will win the gold medal game versus Spain. France will win the bronze medal game versus Serbia. Then Spain and France will become the two European teams to compete at the Olympics. Serbia, Greece, Russia and Lithuania are numbers 8-11 for the pre-Olympic tournaments.
    Second Round (3rd-4th teams from groups)
    Gr. M: 1. China 2. Korea 3. Nigeria 4. Cote D'Ivoire
    Gr. N: 1. Iran 2. Philippines 3. Angola 4. Tunisia
    Gr. O: 1. Czech Rep. 2. Montenegro 3. New Zealand 4. Japan
    Gr. P: 1. Germany 2. Canada 3. Senegal 4. Jordan

    The winners from their groups ranked 17-20, the runners-up 21-24 and etc. China reaches Olympics as best Asian team. Nigeria is the African participant to the Olympics. Czech Republic, Germany and Iran are the 12-14 teams for the pre-Olympic tournaments. Canada and Montenegro will be the last two teams to field the 16 best teams from the World Cup
    Summarising USA, Argentina, Australia, Spain, France, Nigeria, China and Japan are the eight Olympic teams. On the other hand Serbia, Greece, Russia, Lithuania, Venezuela, Poland, Italy, Puerto Rico, Brazil, Turkey, Dominican Rep, Iran, Czech Republic, Germany, Canada and Montenegro achieved qualifications.
    As I said in the beginning FIBA will launch a new FIBA rankings after the tournament. According to this thread the 2 best African teams will probably be Senegal and Angola, the 2 best Asian-Pacific teams will be Philippines and Korea(small chances for New Zealand), America’s best teams will be Mexico and Uruguay and Europe’s best teams probably will be Slovenia and Croatia. But wait a minute these two teams will fall to rankings and meanwhile Latvia and Ukraine will maintain their points. Slovenia will lose a lot of points to the rankings because of the position they achieved at 2010. Croatia too.

    If the rankings are the only criteria for the rest eight teams more or less that’s the way that the puzzle of pre-Olympic tournament will work.



    https://www.fiba.basketball/qualification-og

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    Senior Member Dtown's Avatar
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    I mostly agree, only difference I have would be Serbia finishing the top of their group. Which sets up US/Spain and France/Serbia.

    Have a US/Serbia final with a Spain/France bronze game for the final Euro Olympic spot.
    Pistons: 2018-2019 In the middle of nowhere

    Bronze medal 2013 Eurobasket prediction Game.

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    Do we know how the 24 OQT teams will be distributed across the four tournaments? Will they base it on world rankings, will they try to group continental teams together? Will there be a draw or will they just assign teams to different tournaments?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dtown View Post
    I mostly agree, only difference I have would be Serbia finishing the top of their group. Which sets up US/Spain and France/Serbia.

    Have a US/Serbia final with a Spain/France bronze game for the final Euro Olympic spot.
    I would also put Nigeria third instead of Korea, Germany second instead of Dominican Republic, and China and Poland ahead of Venezuela.

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    Senior Member soulis79's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by christodoulou76 View Post
    Do we know how the 24 OQT teams will be distributed across the four tournaments? Will they base it on world rankings, will they try to group continental teams together? Will there be a draw or will they just assign teams to different tournaments?
    I don't know. I think it's fair to use the rankings system.

    Quote Originally Posted by christodoulou76 View Post
    I would also put Nigeria third instead of Korea, Germany second instead of Dominican Republic, and China and Poland ahead of Venezuela.
    Quote Originally Posted by Dtown View Post
    I mostly agree, only difference I have would be Serbia finishing the top of their group. Which sets up US/Spain and France/Serbia.

    Have a US/Serbia final with a Spain/France bronze game for the final Euro Olympic spot.
    This thread based only to FIBA rankings. It's an example. I wanted to show that even a team from 25th place from the World Cup (Nigeria) could go to the Olympics.

    I do agree that Nigeria is better than Korea, Germany from Dominican Republic and probably Serbia is above Spain. Perhaps Australia is above Lithuania, too. These are power rankings for. Perhaps you could fill a bracket based on squad strength, tradition, injuries, bracket etc. It would be a nice idea.

  6. #6

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    Assuming automatic spots go to USA, Argentina, Serbia, France, Nigeria, China, Australia, the OQT teams (including the two top ranked teams that didn't automatically qualify) will probably be (based on my predicted standings which are slightly different from those of Soulis)

    Spain (2)
    Lithuania (6)
    Slovenia (7)
    Greece (8)
    Croatia (9)
    Russia (10)
    Brazil (12)
    Italy (13)
    Mexico (14)
    Puerto Rico (16)
    Turkey(17)
    Dominican Rep (18)
    Venezuela (20)
    Germany (22)
    Canada (23)
    Czech Republic (24)
    Poland (25)
    Iran (27)
    Montenegro (28)
    Philippines (31)
    Korea (32)
    Senegal (37)
    New Zealand (38)
    Angola (39)

    An even distribution of teams across the four tournaments based on rankings would look something like this (although these rankings will change after the WC)

    Tournament 1:
    Spain
    Italy
    Mexico
    Czech Republic
    Poland
    Angola

    Tournament 2:
    Lithuania
    Brazil
    Puerto Rico
    Canada
    Iran
    New Zealand

    Tournament 3:
    Slovenia
    Russia
    Turkey
    Germany
    Montenegro
    Senegal

    Tournament 4:
    Greece
    Croatia
    Dominican Republic
    Venezuela
    Philippines
    Korea

    Wow, these tournaments I just made up look really unbalanced. Tournament 3 looks particularly tough. Hopefully the real ones will be better than these.

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    Senior Member soulis79's Avatar
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    There is another one tip: If two African teams reach top-16 of the World Cup then their continent will earn one more spot to the pre-Olympic tournament. The same goes if the team is from Asia or if it is New Zealand. In those cases Europe or America will lose one place.

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    Senior Member Dtown's Avatar
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    Of note: As pointed out in the Expectations topic, certain teams will bare minimum make the QCT even if they have a terrible performance in the World Cup via the Wild Cards determined by rankings.

    USA, Spain and Australia would be absolute locks. US has a 280 point lead on third place Brazil, Australia has a nearly a 200 point lead on third place China, Spain has close to a 160 point lead on third place Serbia.

    Teams that aren't locks but very well positioned for the Wild Cards

    Americas: Argentina
    Africa: Nigeria, Senegal, Angola
    Asia: Iran, China, Philippines
    Europe: France, Serbia, Lithuania, Slovenia
    Pistons: 2018-2019 In the middle of nowhere

    Bronze medal 2013 Eurobasket prediction Game.

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    Senior Member soulis79's Avatar
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    These teams qualified to Tokyo Olympics:

    Africa: Nigeria
    Asia: China
    Oceania: Australia

    From Americas Argentina is almost certain. Unless Brazil do some magic, USA will be the second team.

    In Europe it's early but Spain and Serbia look to have an advantage at this moment.

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    Senior Member Italian Pride's Avatar
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    I think spain and Serbia will get two Olympic spot for europe

    Four tournament,do you know what could ne the format?

    Two group of three team like in 2016?

    France,Lithuania,Greece,Canada,Croatia and Slovenia will be main contenders in my opinion

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    Senior Member soulis79's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Italian Pride View Post
    I think spain and Serbia will get two Olympic spot for europe

    Four tournament,do you know what could ne the format?

    Two group of three team like in 2016?

    France,Lithuania,Greece,Canada,Croatia and Slovenia will be main contenders in my opinion
    Spain and Serbia focused to elimanate Italy. They have an easy path to semis so they are the clear favourites for the Olympics.

    The pre-Olympic system more or less will be something like that you mentioned. The key will be the host countries and the absentees from the NBA.

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    Senior Member Italian Pride's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by soulis79 View Post
    Spain and Serbia focused to elimanate Italy. They have an easy path to semis so they are the clear favourites for the Olympics.

    The pre-Olympic system more or less will be something like that you mentioned. The key will be the host countries and the absentees from the NBA.
    6 pot of 4 teams right?

    First pot with countryvthat hosts respectve tournament,other pot according to ranking FIBA,right?

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    Senior Member soulis79's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Italian Pride View Post
    6 pot of 4 teams right?

    First pot with countryvthat hosts respectve tournament,other pot according to ranking FIBA,right?
    I assume something like that. Keep an eye on Latvia as a wildcard candidate just beacause Slovenia will fall at FIBA Rankings.

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    Senior Member soulis79's Avatar
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    Pre-Olympics Rankings with current point: Assuming that Spain and Serbia reaching olympics (that's why France, Czech Republic and Poland are shown in italics).

    France 650.2
    Lithuania 623.0
    Slovenia 621.9
    Greece 602.2
    Croatia 582.9
    Russia 525.3
    Brazil 510.4
    Italy 492.9
    Mexico 489.9
    Puerto Rico 458.7
    Turkey 444.1
    Dominican Republic 434.8
    Venezuela 410.1
    Germany 402.5
    Canada 400.2
    Czech Republic 368.0
    Poland 365.2

    China 317.9
    Philippines 317.6
    Uruguay 285.0
    Senegal 269.4

    New Zealand 267.3
    Angola 262.5
    Tunisia 206.3

    red colour=Wildcards based on FIBA Rankings (Korea has a good chance to pass Philippines for the second ticket).

    I.e Pot 1 should have teams like France, Lithuania, Slovenia and Greece or hosts might take Pot 1. FIBA will decide in the near future.

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    Senior Member Italian Pride's Avatar
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    11 European NT in the preolimpic tournaments,for sure

    9 from world cup +two wild card,so in three tournanents there will ne three European NT,in one tournament only two

    I think one pot will be Tunisia,new zealand and two african NT wild card

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    Moderator Mindozas's Avatar
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    I changed the topic to 2020, I hope you don't mind soulis79, as OQT will be held next year

    Talking about hosting, Sabonis talked about it yesterday, said that Lithuania would go for this, but money might be the problem, FIBA again should arrange the auction and starting bid will be 3mln euros... Will FIBA care about anything else than money? I guess no, none other criteria will apply most likely as it happened in 2012, when Venezuela was gifted OQT just for being able to pay the most (5mln). Also there are rumours that all 4 tournaments might be shared between the continents - Africa, Asia/Oceania, Americas, Europe, but since money talks, I wouldn't bet on it, as who from Africa could pay such money or have needed facilities?


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    Senior Member soulis79's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mindozas View Post
    I changed the topic to 2020, I hope you don't mind soulis79, as OQT will be held next year

    Talking about hosting, Sabonis talked about it yesterday, said that Lithuania would go for this, but money might be the problem, FIBA again should arrange the auction and starting bid will be 3mln euros... Will FIBA care about anything else than money? I guess no, none other criteria will apply most likely as it happened in 2012, when Venezuela was gifted OQT just for being able to pay the most (5mln). Also there are rumours that all 4 tournaments might be shared between the continents - Africa, Asia/Oceania, Americas, Europe, but since money talks, I wouldn't bet on it, as who from Africa could pay such money or have needed facilities?
    I have no hard feelings about that, Mindozas

    Senegal had expressed interest to organise one tournament. They have Dakar Arena. The problem with African countries is financial resources.

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    Moderator Mindozas's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by soulis79 View Post
    I have no hard feelings about that, Mindozas

    Senegal had expressed interest to organise one tournament. They have Dakar Arena. The problem with African countries is financial resources.
    Didn't know that Senegal build new arena - 15k, nice looking, that changes things a bit for Africa. But as you pointed out - money is still the issue, unless Senegal government will find the funds like they found it for arena


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