Let’s talk about the upcoming Olympic Qualifying tournaments. After the conclusion of the FIBA World Cup we will know the seven teams for each geographical region that will compete at the Olympics (2 from Europe and America, one From Oceania, Asia and Africa). Adding the host nation to them, Japan, we sum up to number eight. So that means that the rest berths for the Olympics are four.
At 2019 FIBA World Cup 32 nations will compete for the Olympic and Pre-Olympic tournaments. After the conclusion of the tournament FIBA will announce the new FIBA rankings and the puzzle of the pre-Olympic tournament will start to take shape.
In order to understand better how the rankings will work after the tournament here is the list of the national teams that participated at 2010 FIBA World Cup but failed to reach this year tournament. These are: 8th Slovenia, 14th Croatia and 20th Lebanon. Let's keep that in mind. These three nations will fall to FIBA Rankings because the Olympic Cycle will move one year later(2011). But there are some teams that likely will rise up to the rankings after the end of the World Cup. These teams are Dominican Republic and Venezuela from America, Philippines and Korea from Asia, Senegal and Nigeria from Africa, Italy, Poland, Montenegro and Czech Republic from Europe. The reason is that they will collect points from their participation to the event. At the 2010 World Cup they didn't took part.
Now let’s assume that the world cup finishes and the Olympic tickets are awarded to the best teams. Here is an hypothetical scenario, my scenario that depends only to current FIBA rankings. No team strengths, injuries, etc.
First round
Gr. A: 1. Venezuela 2. Poland 3. China 4. Cote D'ivoire
Gr. B: 1. Argentina 2. Russia 3. Korea 4. Nigeria
Gr. C: 1. Spain 2. Puerto Rico 3. Iran 4. Tunisia
Gr. D: 1. Serbia 2. Italy 3. Philippines 4. Angola
Gr. E: 1.USA 2.Turkey 3. Czech Rep. 4. Japan
Gr. F: 1. Greece 2. Brazil 3. Montenegro 4. New Zealand
Gr. G: 1. France 2. Dominican Rep. 3. Germany 4. Jordan
Gr. H: 1. Lithuania 2. Australia 3. Canada 4. Senegal.
Second Round
Gr. I: 1. Argentina 2. Russia 3.Venezuela 4. Poland
Gr. J: 1.Spain 2. Serbia 3. Italy 4. Puerto Rico
Gr. K: 1.USA 2. Greece 3. Brazil 4. Turkey
Gr. L: 1. France 2. Lithuania 3. Australia 4. Dominican Rep.
Quarterfinals
Serbia defeats Argentina
USA defeats Lithuania
Spain defeats Russia
France defeats Greece
Second Round (3rd-4th teams from groups)
Gr. M: 1. China 2. Korea 3. Nigeria 4. Cote D'Ivoire
Gr. N: 1. Iran 2. Philippines 3. Angola 4. Tunisia
Gr. O: 1. Czech Rep. 2. Montenegro 3. New Zealand 4. Japan
Gr. P: 1. Germany 2. Canada 3. Senegal 4. Jordan
Summarising USA, Argentina, Australia, Spain, France, Nigeria, China and Japan are the eight Olympic teams. On the other hand Serbia, Greece, Russia, Lithuania, Venezuela, Poland, Italy, Puerto Rico, Brazil, Turkey, Dominican Rep, Iran, Czech Republic, Germany, Canada and Montenegro achieved qualifications.As I said in the beginning FIBA will launch a new FIBA rankings after the tournament. According to this thread the 2 best African teams will probably be Senegal and Angola, the 2 best Asian-Pacific teams will be Philippines and Korea(small chances for New Zealand), America’s best teams will be Mexico and Uruguay and Europe’s best teams probably will be Slovenia and Croatia. But wait a minute these two teams will fall to rankings and meanwhile Latvia and Ukraine will maintain their points. Slovenia will lose a lot of points to the rankings because of the position they achieved at 2010. Croatia too.
If the rankings are the only criteria for the rest eight teams more or less that’s the way that the puzzle of pre-Olympic tournament will work.
https://www.fiba.basketball/qualification-og
At 2019 FIBA World Cup 32 nations will compete for the Olympic and Pre-Olympic tournaments. After the conclusion of the tournament FIBA will announce the new FIBA rankings and the puzzle of the pre-Olympic tournament will start to take shape.
In order to understand better how the rankings will work after the tournament here is the list of the national teams that participated at 2010 FIBA World Cup but failed to reach this year tournament. These are: 8th Slovenia, 14th Croatia and 20th Lebanon. Let's keep that in mind. These three nations will fall to FIBA Rankings because the Olympic Cycle will move one year later(2011). But there are some teams that likely will rise up to the rankings after the end of the World Cup. These teams are Dominican Republic and Venezuela from America, Philippines and Korea from Asia, Senegal and Nigeria from Africa, Italy, Poland, Montenegro and Czech Republic from Europe. The reason is that they will collect points from their participation to the event. At the 2010 World Cup they didn't took part.
Now let’s assume that the world cup finishes and the Olympic tickets are awarded to the best teams. Here is an hypothetical scenario, my scenario that depends only to current FIBA rankings. No team strengths, injuries, etc.
First round
Gr. A: 1. Venezuela 2. Poland 3. China 4. Cote D'ivoire
Gr. B: 1. Argentina 2. Russia 3. Korea 4. Nigeria
Gr. C: 1. Spain 2. Puerto Rico 3. Iran 4. Tunisia
Gr. D: 1. Serbia 2. Italy 3. Philippines 4. Angola
Gr. E: 1.USA 2.Turkey 3. Czech Rep. 4. Japan
Gr. F: 1. Greece 2. Brazil 3. Montenegro 4. New Zealand
Gr. G: 1. France 2. Dominican Rep. 3. Germany 4. Jordan
Gr. H: 1. Lithuania 2. Australia 3. Canada 4. Senegal.
Australia is the Oceania's participant to the Olympics
Gr. I: 1. Argentina 2. Russia 3.Venezuela 4. Poland
Gr. J: 1.Spain 2. Serbia 3. Italy 4. Puerto Rico
Gr. K: 1.USA 2. Greece 3. Brazil 4. Turkey
Gr. L: 1. France 2. Lithuania 3. Australia 4. Dominican Rep.
After this round Argentina and USA are becoming the first teams to reach the Olympics from Americas region. Venezuela, Poland, Italy, Puerto Rico, Brazil, Turkey and Dominican Rep. are the seven first teams for the pre-Olympic tournaments.
Serbia defeats Argentina
USA defeats Lithuania
Spain defeats Russia
France defeats Greece
We suppose that USA will win the gold medal game versus Spain. France will win the bronze medal game versus Serbia. Then Spain and France will become the two European teams to compete at the Olympics. Serbia, Greece, Russia and Lithuania are numbers 8-11 for the pre-Olympic tournaments.
Gr. M: 1. China 2. Korea 3. Nigeria 4. Cote D'Ivoire
Gr. N: 1. Iran 2. Philippines 3. Angola 4. Tunisia
Gr. O: 1. Czech Rep. 2. Montenegro 3. New Zealand 4. Japan
Gr. P: 1. Germany 2. Canada 3. Senegal 4. Jordan
The winners from their groups ranked 17-20, the runners-up 21-24 and etc. China reaches Olympics as best Asian team. Nigeria is the African participant to the Olympics. Czech Republic, Germany and Iran are the 12-14 teams for the pre-Olympic tournaments. Canada and Montenegro will be the last two teams to field the 16 best teams from the World Cup
If the rankings are the only criteria for the rest eight teams more or less that’s the way that the puzzle of pre-Olympic tournament will work.
https://www.fiba.basketball/qualification-og
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