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Thread: 2020 Olympic Qualifying Tournaments

  1. #401
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    Quote Originally Posted by Straight forward View Post
    The abstract picture because of postpone would be this, IMO:

    USA, if they ever to face any problems with theirs -+ A team, loses some power due to Lebron's, Leonard's FA and all extreme generation in Lebron, S.Curry, Durant, Harden, Russ becoming 1 year older. There's nothing similar, IMO, after this. Actually after such players as Davis, Lillard, there' no true superstars in USA, how odd it would sound. Imagine studs in their thirties wouldn't show up, and we have a ball game again as in 2019.

    Croatia. IMO, should get some benefits. Bog still should be legit, Saric still developing player, Hezonja became somewhat relevant, Bender will benefit from one year development, even Luka Samanic could make a mark. Off course, Croatia may even not be there as Germany would throw them out, but I still believe Croatia should be stronger with all the pieces.

    Argentina. I guess the answer is clear. The team won't be stronger in 1 year.

    Australia. Goes down a little bit. Mills, Delly, Ingles, Baynes are not getting younger. There' no-one to step into Mill's shoes as of yet, IMO. No guy who can drop thirty when he's in the mood. Ben Simmon's would be more sad ferry tale of "Giannis in 2019 WC", IMO.

    Serbia. Teodosic potentially on his full decline. Jokic, Bogdanovic, Micic on a growing path. Bjelica still peaking, IMO. Probably should be even better than in 2019 and to learn mistakes of WC.

    France. On a huge growth. They have tons of youngsters, tons of quality, specially defensively and I true guards to go to for FIBA in Fournier, De Collo. I treat France as probably the biggest rival for USA. Serbia doesn't have defensive presence of France.

    Spain. Goes down a little bit. Sorry, legend PAU, at 41-42 you won't be the guy. Brother also gets older. Lull is a shadow of himself, Rodriguez is getting old. Rubio and grandpas Gasols, that's pretty much the story. Not a good momentum for Spain, IMO, even if they snatched the title in 2019. Still top 5 team though.

    Canada. They get the most of postpone. In one year some of their talents will ripe dramatically, just as they have been doing this season. Canada will have probably second best roster after USA, but they have zero clue what's FIBA and most guys will come out of NBA. France, Serbia are surely superior because they already have it. Knowledge, toughness, defensive team presence.

    Lithuania. IMO, it's positive for it. 10's generation - Kalnietis, Maciulis, Jankunas, Seibutis- has been declining since 2017. We are sort of rebuilding since 2019, with Sabonis, Grigonis, Lekavicius snatching key roles. One year will ripe some potential addition as Jokubaitis, Brazdeikis, Kulboka, Sirvydis.

    Greece. Sloukas, Calathes are not getting any younger. Giannis won't carry them alone. Lack of substantial younger talents, IMO, is felt by Greece.

    I won't go deeper, because it's hard to see which other strong teams making OG. I think now Canada should have an edge over Greece.

    Cant argue with much of this (save one which I will get to) - but I'd like to hear your thoughts go a little deeper. What about Germany, Italy, Czech, Turkey, Russia and some of the others that are not too far behind?


    I will softly argue about Argentina- besides Scola who I admit is the heart and soul of that team the rest of their guys are all in their prime or even on the young side. It seems everyone else that played meaningful minutes on that World Cup Silver medal team was between 25 and 30. Scola is 39 and has aged well (for the FIBA level at least). He may not have too much of a fall off for next year - although it is tougher for older guys to stay in shape during a layoff like this.
    Anyways - their entire team save Scola probably improves when we fast forward 1 year - so I don't think it is clear that they fall back. Granted I clearly don't think they are anything close to the #2 team in the world and that WC run was fairly magical and lucky.

  2. #402
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    Germany: stable team that has a very interesting big rotation. Very solid shooting bigs who are also able to share the ball very well. Too many options with Theiss, Barthel, Voigtmann, Kleber, Moritz Wagner and maybe Hartenstein. They have two big weaknesses. First one is Dennis Schröder as your primarily decision maker. He developed his shooting very well and grew but just as scoring option. The main decision maker is CP and Dennis used the advantage very well. He himself is one of the worst decision maker in the sports of bb. Without a proper play maker beside him they wont win anything.

    They have Len Schoormann from the Frankfurt Skyliners but he wont be at that level in one year and he is not the guy they need so Maodo Lo will be the second option. Unfortunately he is nobody who can carry a team from the bench. Below average court vision, average shooter at most and bad decision making. He wont be able to create for others.

    The position of the shooting guards is the weakest in the german team. Akpinar had a solid year with BJK in Turkey but mostly used as defender beside Schröder who doesnt defend at all.

    Shortly said: Germany has a solid (not great) big rotation with bad scorers/decision makers. They have a realistic chance but not a tournament team and the coach Henrik Rödl doesnt have the respect of his team. He especially cant control the ego of Schröder and there is no other options.

    Italy: overall view is a very potent scoring team unfortunately without a good play maker as well. Very bad on the defensive end.

    The team is carried by 4 guys right now: Datome, Melli, Belinelli and Gallinari. DiVincenzo will most probably also be a part of the team. The most important two positions is there weakness. Mannion will be able to fill one gap in play making but i dont know his situation right now. I just know that he played for USA in U16. Its possible that DiVincenzo or Mannion has to stay out.

    They can beat anyone on a good day but because of the weakness in the center position and the defensive weaknesses there is a very small chance to beat Serbia in Belgrade. They wont make it.

    Czech: a growing bb nation which plays a very solid team bb. Every member knows what to do on the court. Roles are very clear. Another advantage is the majority of the team plays together in a team (Nymburg). Strong in play making and the Center position, athletic team player who has experience in Italy, Spain and Turkey but skill wise they are clearly behind teams like Canada, Turkey or Greece premised these teams have a good prep time. Too fragile and inexperienced for such a tournament. They wont make it.

    Russia: Too old, no prospects, too many injured player who are out of bb. Shortly said no chance at all and they will fall behind very soon. Not worth to consider.

    Turkey: Similar problems like Italy. Still a very young team which is carried of 4 NBA-Level player. The biggest weaknesses are the center and (normally) the play making position but if we consider that Larkin will participate team Turkey has the best player and play maker in Europe who in addition suits the team very well. A very very offensive strong team with great all around scorer and shooter. The offensive potential with Larkin in this team is beyond the roof but a really bad team on the defensive end. The coach cant prepare the team well and they are not used o play together. They play mostly ISO game over very potent scorers like Korkmaz, Osman and Ilyasova. With a good floor general like Larkin young Eurocup level guys will be enhanced for sure (better).

    Turkey has 2-3 gems and 2-3 more solid prospects which will be a factor in future but right now the lack of solid Bigs is the limiting factor. The trend is positive but there are too many question marks as well. Will be a problem for any team but this time it wont be enough but a final Turkey vs Canada would be great to watch.

  3. #403
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    Quote Originally Posted by Toruko View Post
    Turkey: Similar problems like Italy. Still a very young team which is carried of 4 NBA-Level player. The biggest weaknesses are the center and (normally) the play making position but if we consider that Larkin will participate team Turkey has the best player and play maker in Europe who in addition suits the team very well. A very very offensive strong team with great all around scorer and shooter. The offensive potential with Larkin in this team is beyond the roof but a really bad team on the defensive end. The coach cant prepare the team well and they are not used o play together. They play mostly ISO game over very potent scorers like Korkmaz, Osman and Ilyasova. With a good floor general like Larkin young Eurocup level guys will be enhanced for sure (better).
    Larkin is just nominally a point guard, and if we are talking about pure point guard skills he is not even the best point guard in his own team. Larkin is a scorer. By far the best one in Europe. Turkey will be much better with him, but I'm curious to see how is he going to handle playmaking duties as a primary point guard. He won't have the luxury of having Micić alongside him, which has helped him tremendously to focus on the best part of his game - scoring buckets. Micić is a primary point guard and floor general for Efes, and that has brought the best out of Larkin because he was relieved of point guard duties. I don't think Turkey has a capable point guard to consistently do what Micić does for Larkin. Nevertheless, Larkin-Korkmaz-Osman is a nice rotation.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Katastroika View Post
    Dunno but France doesn't convince me at all. Even not with the upcoming generation. I think it will stay pretty much the same as it is at the World Stage. Same 6-7 teams behind USA and behind them 10 that can beat those 6-7 but there's a obvious quality gap.
    I agree. There is something missing with France, and I'm not sure what that is. Their identity is not clear and I think more often than not they easily lose focus. Talent is deep, but there is always something predictable about their offense. They haven't been themselves for the past few years.

  5. #405
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    Quote Originally Posted by Serbian_Layup View Post
    Larkin is just nominally a point guard, and if we are talking about pure point guard skills he is not even the best point guard in his own team. Larkin is a scorer. By far the best one in Europe. Turkey will be much better with him, but I'm curious to see how is he going to handle playmaking duties as a primary point guard. He won't have the luxury of having Micić alongside him, which has helped him tremendously to focus on the best part of his game - scoring buckets. Micić is a primary point guard and floor general for Efes, and that has brought the best out of Larkin because he was relieved of point guard duties. I don't think Turkey has a capable point guard to consistently do what Micić does for Larkin. Nevertheless, Larkin-Korkmaz-Osman is a nice rotation.
    He doesnt need to be a classic floor general. His ability to penetrate and create room for others will help the team tremendously. In the point of a secondary ball handler there are guys who can give you solid 10-15 minutes not like Micic but still. Also Osman and Korkmaz can put the ball on the floor and share the ball well from the point guard position. Larkin will handle the duties of a point guard very well.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Serbian_Layup View Post
    I agree. There is something missing with France, and I'm not sure what that is. Their identity is not clear and I think more often than not they easily lose focus. Talent is deep, but there is always something predictable about their offense. They haven't been themselves for the past few years.
    Its again the lack of a play maker who can let the whole team play. A very good defensive team especially with Gobert but Gobert is still the limiting factor on the offensive end. A lack of a play maker with court vision forces their scorers to create for themselves which looks a bit stuck and it wont change much with Maledon either. Hayes could be the better option, well have to wait his progress but Wembaya will change the team entirely. This guy is offensively a different dimension compared to Gobert and if they play just 1 tournaments together i cant imagine the possibilities.

  7. #407

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    France not only have upcoming 21yo PG Frank Ntilikina, but also 2 more beast NBA prospects Maledon and Killian Hayes. Both are strong first rounders. And Matthieu Gauzin should be drafted as well. So France will have huge spectrum of point guards which I think used to be their weak link. Sure, with France you never know, but, IMO, they have the most prospect potential in Europe right now.
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    Agree
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    Quote Originally Posted by Straight forward View Post
    France not only have upcoming 21yo PG Frank Ntilikina, but also 2 more beast NBA prospects Maledon and Killian Hayes. Both are strong first rounders. And Matthieu Gauzin should be drafted as well. So France will have huge spectrum of point guards which I think used to be their weak link. Sure, with France you never know, but, IMO, they have the most prospect potential in Europe right now.
    That's true. But where's the extra quality? Ntilikina doesn't convince me, Hayes has to be seen, Maledon is everything but a new generationwise talent. They will have big depth but so will others, too. There is not a player visible from them that can be categorized as a potential game changer. France lacks identity as my fellow countrymen wrote. I think it describes them the best. Or in other words, France 2013-2014 was stronger than they are right now and will be next year.

  10. #410

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    Quote Originally Posted by Katastroika View Post
    That's true. But where's the extra quality? Ntilikina doesn't convince me, Hayes has to be seen, Maledon is everything but a new generationwise talent. They will have big depth but so will others, too. There is not a player visible from them that can be categorized as a potential game changer. France lacks identity as my fellow countrymen wrote. I think it describes them the best. Or in other words, France 2013-2014 was stronger than they are right now and will be next year.
    Fournier is their face now. He's coming into his prime as 27yo, drops 19pts in NBA, he was really pissed for not snatching medals in WC. They are very good defensive team and they have TOP BIG GUARD to make things happen. What will happen with all this upcoming talent, we'll see.
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  11. #411
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    Diaw's retirement is also underrated when talking about French team cohesion. He was their point forward, and he made a lot of things happen for their offense. That is the hole they are still not able to fill in.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Serbian_Layup View Post
    Diaw's retirement is also underrated when talking about French team cohesion. He was their point forward, and he made a lot of things happen for their offense. That is the hole they are still not able to fill in.
    This, beside irreplacable Parker. And of course the intense downfall of Nicolas Batum. I was in Madrid at the semfinal 2014 between us and them in Palacio Deportes and I remember how elegant Batum looked, he played alone against us all game and held them in the dogfight until the very end. Too much quality lost on the way. They have a very good roster of well educated players but no extra quality. I agree with Straight Forward that Fournier is in his prime and their go-to-guy but he is really not a caliber of a player whom I would give the keys of a team. France reminds me at Dinamo Sassari with their game style - they can beat Real but also lose against Slask Wroclaw.

    Just for comparison - who is the better player for you all (even different positions) - Bojan Bogdanovic or Evan Fournier? For me Bojan. But would you give Bojan the keys of a team? Me not. Maybe a little too easy comparison because France is much stronger than Croatia but I think y'all get my way of thinking.

  13. #413
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    Quote Originally Posted by Katastroika View Post
    This, beside irreplacable Parker. And of course the intense downfall of Nicolas Batum. I was in Madrid at the semfinal 2014 between us and them in Palacio Deportes and I remember how elegant Batum looked, he played alone against us all game and held them in the dogfight until the very end. Too much quality lost on the way. They have a very good roster of well educated players but no extra quality. I agree with Straight Forward that Fournier is in his prime and their go-to-guy but he is really not a caliber of a player whom I would give the keys of a team. France reminds me at Dinamo Sassari with their game style - they can beat Real but also lose against Slask Wroclaw.

    Just for comparison - who is the better player for you all (even different positions) - Bojan Bogdanovic or Evan Fournier? For me Bojan. But would you give Bojan the keys of a team? Me not. Maybe a little too easy comparison because France is much stronger than Croatia but I think y'all get my way of thinking.
    Batum has been on decline for several years, which is a bit unexpected, because he is still in his prime years. He got big contract and has failed to live up to expectations ever since. I like him very much as a player, a good team player with undeniable talent, good defender, he isn’t shy to step up in big moments. I think he is still dangerous player, and still very valuable to France.

    Bojan or Fournier….not easy to choose because they are both similar players, scorers at first. Well, Bojan is the scorer at first, second and last… really efficient, great shooter. Fournier is also a very good shooter and has better handle than Bojan, can do a little bit more offensively (better passer), but not as efficient as Bojan. It depends on what you're looking for – efficient shooter or a scorer that can do a liitle bit more offensively. They are both excellent, but I'm leaning towards Bojan a bit.

    Personally, I'd choose Bogdan over both of them in the blink of an eye

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    Batum a good defender? He lacks effort, motivation positioning... but its also not easy to stay focussed with the Hornets He has surely the possibilities but he lost his focus and is one of the worst nba contracted player.

    Fournier or Bogdanovic? In international games Fournier because he is the way versatile scorer and Bogdanovic in the NBA. Bogdanovic has in fact nothing to survive in the nba as small forward but he is insanely strong and works in the nba far better than in Europe.
    Last edited by Toruko; 04-07-2020 at 09:58 PM.

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    Fournier better in both sides. NBA and FIBA. Fournier is not only more versatile, has way more handles and creativity, but he also facilitates more and is better defender for his position, mainly 2 I would say. His efficiency is higher. IMO, underrated player. He must be the best European guard after Doncic now.

    Starting 5 of best Euros now would be such (bench):

    Doncic (Schroder, Dragic)
    Fournier (Bogdan Bogdanovic)
    Giannis (Bojan Bogdanovic)
    Sabonis (Porzingis, Galinari)
    Jokic (Gobert)
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    Quote Originally Posted by Straight forward View Post
    Fournier better in both sides. NBA and FIBA. Fournier is not only more versatile, has way more handles and creativity, but he also facilitates more and is better defender for his position, mainly 2 I would say. His efficiency is higher. IMO, underrated player. He must be the best European guard after Doncic now.

    Starting 5 of best Euros now would be such (bench):

    Doncic (Schroder, Dragic)
    Fournier (Bogdan Bogdanovic)
    Giannis (Bojan Bogdanovic)
    Sabonis (Porzingis, Galinari)
    Jokic (Gobert)
    It really depends on which KP we’re looking at. KP in February and March was a monster in offense and in D. He avg. 3 blocks after all star break, which is more than Gobert. Knowing that he was 18 months out, I believe he needed time to get in playing shape. I would for sure put him in front of Sabonis.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Killer Bob View Post
    It really depends on which KP we’re looking at. KP in February and March was a monster in offense and in D. He avg. 3 blocks after all star break, which is more than Gobert. Knowing that he was 18 months out, I believe he needed time to get in playing shape. I would for sure put him in front of Sabonis.
    That's a good point that I had in my mind, but overall I think Sabonis had a better season and has been playing for probably stronger team as the key piece. In a long run, Porzingis is better scorer and defender (and player overall), but Sabonis is probably better rebounder and facilitator. While Sabonis is playing at All Star level, Porzingis has an upside to be a bordeline superstar in the league if not actual superstar. But as this season goes, I put Sabonis to the starting lineup.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Straight forward View Post
    That's a good point that I had in my mind, but overall I think Sabonis had a better season and has been playing for probably stronger team as the key piece. In a long run, Porzingis is better scorer and defender (and player overall), but Sabonis is probably better rebounder and facilitator. While Sabonis is playing at All Star level, Porzingis has an upside to be a bordeline superstar in the league if not actual superstar. But as this season goes, I put Sabonis to the starting lineup.
    I don't understand how Indiana with more or less equal results is better than Dallas, who is playing in the West? Especially knowing how many games Luka and Kp missed. Before those injuries Mavs were 3rd in the West.
    KP started very slow as expected, but was in great form lately. I doubt very much that Sabonis would get starting place instead of Kp, specially if Jokic is C. Someone has to play D too. And you want to have as many shooters as possible, for different reasons, around Giannis and Luka.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Killer Bob View Post
    I don't understand how Indiana with more or less equal results is better than Dallas, who is playing in the West? Especially knowing how many games Luka and Kp missed. Before those injuries Mavs were 3rd in the West.
    KP started very slow as expected, but was in great form lately. I doubt very much that Sabonis would get starting place instead of Kp, specially if Jokic is C. Someone has to play D too.
    Mavs to me has been sort of 7/8th team in the West while Pacers strong 5th in the east, scratching 4th spot. But, yeah, realistically Mavs may even be better, but I wouldn't exclude Pacers with healthy Brogdon, coming into his own Dipo (if he's fast enough this season) and Sabonis + a bit underrated M. Turner with a solid bench. IMO, more or less equal teams, I'm not very well aware of Mavs bench. The distance between west and east really got smaller lately.
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  20. #420
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    @Toruko
    @Straight forward

    I think it's becoming an excessive habbit trying to label players as NBA/FIBA type of players. More and more people are trying to project Giannis' case (great in NBA/bad in FIBA) on other players where there is really no need for that and without any objective evidence.

    Both Bogdanović and Fournier are excellent in NBA/FIBA level of competition (Bogdanović was lit every single FIBA competition, it’s another story why he can’t succeed with Croatia, at least thus far), it's just a matter of personal taste whom would you rather have. Furthermore, Bogdanović has a great back to the basket game. He is easily exploiting mismatches, especially in FIBA game due to his size and strength. Fournier has a better handle, but it's not like Bojan can't put the ball on the floor. He has a good enough handle to drive on closeouts and finish through contact. So it looks to me that he has plenty assets to be just as good in any kind of basketball competition, offensively his skills are tailor made for SF.

    My point is not to prove that Bogdanovic is better player than Fourner in FIBA/NBA, but only to question this excessive division of NBA good/FIBA bad type of players. There is no reason to mold players into Giannis' case just because of the Giannis' case. And the very same Giannis would be the same or very close to that NBA player if Greece were able to surround him with more complementary fits. The main difference between NBA/FIBA game is that NBA teams are working to perfection to surround their best players with the most functional fits. When it comes to national teams this is not possible, you work with what you have. Surround Giannis with bad shooters and he wouldn't be the same player even in the NBA. That goes for basically every talented player, they need to be put in the best position to be able to succeed. I remember Jokić when Malone was using him at PF for some stretches during his first 2 and half seasons. He looked like average player at best. I only took Bogdanović as an example, not because I’m particularly interested in him (he may not even be in my upper class of favorite players).

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