Olympic Qualification Predictions/Results

[soulis79]

After the conclusion of the day 2 of the bellow bracket (groups E,F,G,H) we have confirmed that USA, Brazil, France, Dominican Republic, Australia and Lithuania have all reached at least the Pre-Olympic tournament. Twelve teams until now have achieved this. Seven from Europe, 4 from the Americas and one from Oceania.

Still in the hunt for at least pre-Olympics qualifications are eight teams. Tunisia, China, Puerto Rico, Venezuela, Turkey, Czech Republic, Greece and New Zealand.

[Dtown]

As it stands right now we know we will at least have the 2 Americas, 2 European, 1 Oceania automatic Olympic spots come from second round teams.

China and Tunisia can still automatically qualify for the Olympics on Wednesday.

If they both win: 7 OQT spots will be settled in the Qualification Rounds.

If one wins: 6 OQT will be settled in the QR and either the Asian/African top place finisher.

If both lose: 5 OQT spots will be settled in the QR along with the Asian Olympic Qualifier and the African Olympic Qualifier,

[Dtown]

Australia becomes the first team to qualify automatically for the Olympics with New Zealand's loss to Greece.

The Africa and Asia spots will be sorted this weekend.

There will be 5 OQT spots awarded in the Classification phase. All first place finishers in the classification groups are at least guaranteed the OQT.

[sinobball]

A quick look at upcoming opponents for each Asian/African team:

China (1 win) - Korea, Nigeria
Korea - China, Ivory Coast
Iran - Philippines, Angola
Philippines - Iran, Tunisia
Jordan - Canada, Senegal
Japan - <not pertinent>

Tunisia (1 win) - Philippines, Angola
Angola (1 win) - Tunisia, Iran
Nigeria (1 win) - Ivory Coast, China
Ivory Coast - Nigeria, Korea
Senegal - Jordan, Germany

I have a feeling the Olympic spots will be between China-Iran and Nigeria-Tunisia

[soulis79]

After the first day of the classification games the two Olympic berts (Asia and Africa) are still open.

I don't count Jordan because they have to beat Canada, so in Asia it's between China (6 points) and Iran (5 points). If China beats Nigeria then China wins the group and secures Olympic spot. Otherwise Iran needs to beat Philippines and the total margin in both games has to be +20. i.e. Nigeria wins by 1 then Iran needs a win by 19.

There is also a possibility that Iran wins by a big margin and at the same time Angola beats Tunisia by at least 7. In that case Iran is third on the group and can't reach Olympics.

In Africa the think is pretty clear. Nigeria needs just one more win or Tunisia lose or Senegal one lose in the next two games.

Let's wait the results tomorrow to summarise who reaches what.

[mohsena2631]

After the first day of the classification games the two Olympic berts (Asia and Africa) are still open.

I don't count Jordan because they have to beat Canada, so in Asia it's between China (6 points) and Iran (5 points). If China beats Nigeria then China wins the group and secures Olympic spot. Otherwise Iran needs to beat Philippines and the total margin in both games has to be +20. i.e. Nigeria wins by 1 then Iran needs a win by 19.

There is also a possibility that Iran wins by a big margin and at the same time Angola beats Tunisia by at least 7. In that case Iran is third on the group and can't reach Olympics.

In Africa the think is pretty clear. Nigeria needs just one more win or Tunisia lose or Senegal one lose in the next two games.

Let's wait the results tomorrow to summarise who reaches what.

Iran needs the total margin of 16, not 20

and no matter what, Nigeria has to win, because either Tunisia or Angola will win that group (Iran can't win the group) and better PD won't help Nigeria if they finish 2nd behind China

[soulis79]

Iran needs the total margin of 16, not 20

and no matter what, Nigeria has to win, because either Tunisia or Angola will win that group (Iran can't win the group) and better PD won't help Nigeria if they finish 2nd behind China

You are right, friend. I also think Korea missed a chance today, although their chances were slim.

[soulis79]

After Brazil's defeat, Argentina are very close to Olympics. The clash between USA-Brazil is for the second Olympic berth from Americas.

[Dtown]

Iran and Nigeria join Australia as qualified.

OQT is also shaping up..

Russia, Venezuela, Italy, Puerto Rico, Lithuania, Dominican Republic, Tunisia are locked in.

Provided there's no blow outs tomorrow
Germany, Canada, New Zealand, Turkey will also qualify.

[MrRager]

Iran and Nigeria join Australia as qualified.

OQT is also shaping up..

Russia, Venezuela, Italy, Puerto Rico, Lithuania, Dominican Republic, Tunisia are locked in.

Provided there's no blow outs tomorrow
Germany, Canada, New Zealand, Turkey will also qualify.

And how will the groups for OQT be determined? I assume China will accidentally fall into the group with DR, Tunisia and Venezuela

[soulis79]

And how will the groups for OQT be determined? I assume China will accidentally fall into the group with DR, Tunisia and Venezuela

I hope FIBA rankings will determine this. Ofcourse their is a possibility that the four hosts will have some priveledges in draw.

[Steadysoul]

I hope FIBA rankings will determine this. Of Course there's a possibility that the four hosts will have some privileges in draw.

If it's with regional balance in mind none of the asian/african teams have a shot. Too many teams way above them. Short of a miracle Run like Nigeria in 2012 I can't see a draw that could result in that success

[soulis79]

USA seems that they will win easily Brazil. That result leads to Argentina and USA direct qualification at Tokyo Olympics.

Australia's win made Spain and Serbia smile because France will face the USA team at the quarterfinals. If Spain and Serbia win their games and USA defeats France then they will reach Olympics. Otherwise if France wins the medal games will decide the result.

P.S. Poland and Czech Republic have aso chances, but they need some magic.

[Mindozas]

And how will the groups for OQT be determined? I assume China will accidentally fall into the group with DR, Tunisia and Venezuela

Unless they get one of the tournaments to host, then anything might happen again, but other than 2019, China never had any benefit in draws

If it will the same criteria like in 2016, then FIBA ranking and geographical criteria will decide it. Back then it was one pot all Asia, one all Africa, 1st pot was with top guns France, Greece, Serbia, then 2nd tire Euros - Latvia, Croatia, Turkey, other 2 were a bit mixed

[Shawshank]

If USA and Aus win their 1/4 games 4 Europe teams will play semifinal/final tournament for last remaining direct Olympic ticket.

Semifinal would look like this :

France vs Serbia ( hidden final?)

Poland vs Czech