Olympic Qualification Predictions/Results

[christodoulou76]

The only placements that are guaranteed at this point are...17-23 will at least make the qualifying tournament.

Teams that finish in 22nd or 23rd spots are not guaranteed to make the OQT (see my post above)

[Dtown]

Teams that finish in 22nd or 23rd spots are not guaranteed to make the OQT (see my post above)

Actually I think we're both wrong. 23 is not guaranteed you're right on that. But assuming Africa/Asia make up the bottom the best African/Asian team would be 22nd. That team would go to the Olympics. So the statement should be 17-22 will at least make the qualifying tournament, as every team in that range would either go to the Olympics directly or the Qualifying tournament.

[Shawshank]

Let's imagine 2 groups:

1st group

Spain,Serbia,Russia, Argentina, Italy,Poland,Puerturico,China

2nd group

USA,Australia,Greece,Lithuania, Canada, France,Germany, Turkey

And goal would be make top 2 in respected group and seriuos shot for medal.If you take 3rd or lesser you have no shot for medal.

I don't think 2 groups teams ( except of USA) would be very optimistic overall about their chances , but that's how chinas draws made them.

It's very similar to nba east and west.One conference have 2-3 really good teams and all others very mediocre ones and other conference all top 8 teams are atleast 50 win level teams + also with one basically unbeatable dinasty team on top.

I would argue that making west confe finals it's harder to do than to win east conference.Same here for Serbia/Spain making final is easier than for 2 group teams making semifinal.

[Dtown]

Let's imagine 2 groups:

1st group

Spain,Serbia,Russia, Argentina, Italy,Poland,Puerturico,China

2nd group

USA,Australia,Greece,Lithuania, Canada, France,Germany, Turkey

And goal would be make top 2 in respected group and seriuos shot for medal.If you take 3rd or lesser you have no shot for medal.

I don't think 2 groups teams ( except of USA) would be very optimistic overall about their chances , but that's how chinas draws made them.

It's very similar to nba east and west.One conference have 2-3 really good teams and all others very mediocre ones and other conference all top 8 teams are atleast 50 win level teams + also with one basically unbeatable dinasty team on top.

I would argue that making west confe finals it's harder to do than to win east conference.Same here for Serbia/Spain making final is easier than for 2 group teams making semifinal.

I mostly agree with you. It's absolutely easier for Spain/Seribia to make the knockout stage.

However I'm not sure it's easier for them to make the final. Unlike the NBA Conference example, the knockout stage is mixed, and the 3rd/4th team that make it through group 2 will be playing Spain/Serbia which isn't going to be easy by any stretch.

[usagre]

It's very similar to nba east and west.One conference have 2-3 really good teams and all others very mediocre ones and other conference all top 8 teams are atleast 50 win level teams + also with one basically unbeatable dinasty team on top.
.

Yet the last 8 champions are equally split 4 each per conference.
You want to go back further then West has a slight 9-7 lead over the
Last 16 years. It's a dumb narrative pushed by the media that doesn't hold any water.
Who cares how hard each conference is it's all about the last team standing and beating that team 4 times.

[vivo]

Yet the last 8 champions are equally split 4 each per conference.
You want to go back further then West has a slight 9-7 lead over the
Last 16 years. It's a dumb narrative pushed by the media that doesn't hold any water.
Who cares how hard each conference is it's all about the last team standing and beating that team 4 times.

Championship number per conference doesn't show that 15 teams each on them are about equal. East was very top heavy until maybe last year whereas West had many solid teams.

About the Group 1 and Group 2, yes the groups are very unbalanced. It doesn't matter much though, it's different than NBA. You have to beat multiple teams from both sides for a good standing.

[Mindozas]

Championship number per conference doesn't show that 15 teams each on them are about equal. East was very top heavy until maybe last year whereas West had many solid teams.

About the Group 1 and Group 2, yes the groups are very unbalanced. It doesn't matter much though, it's different than NBA. You have to beat multiple teams from both sides for a good standing.

Can't agree here. It matters a lot actually. Take a look what kind of paths till "good standing" will have some Russia or Argentina, which has wide open road till quarterfinals, and that might be even enough to grab Olympic ticket for Argentina and then compare it to the path of Lithuania, Canada and Australia - group of death, then France/Germany in next round and 50% chance of getting USA in quarterfinals

[Shawshank]

Yet the last 8 champions are equally split 4 each per conference.
You want to go back further then West has a slight 9-7 lead over the
Last 16 years. It's a dumb narrative pushed by the media that doesn't hold any water.
Who cares how hard each conference is it's all about the last team standing and beating that team 4 times.

Firstly it's 10-6 in last 16 years it not even close ...secondly 2006,2013,2016 times east teams came from behind with lots of breaks in those finals and I could argue they weren't better team overall.To think 2019 raptors would beat healthy warriors it's just ain't right.

From west champs the only 2011 Mavs team was not better that won finals.

So 10-6 final score with lots of luck for east side that it even looking closer that it really was and remember east had to by far best player in those years,without that it would be like 13-3 at best 12-4.

The only teams I consider true NBA champions from east was 2008 Celtics and Miami 2012 and also maybe 2013 Miami that's it,others east champions team got big big breaks and most of cases because of easier road and coming to finals simply healthier

Last 16 is 10-6 ...after bulls era finished NBA final record is 16-7...that's not close at all

[Dtown]

Firstly it's 10-6 in last 16 years it not even close ...secondly 2006,2013,2016 times east teams came from behind with lots of breaks in those finals and I could argue they weren't better team overall.To think 2019 raptors would beat healthy warriors it's just ain't right.

From west champs the only 2011 Mavs team was not better that won finals.

So 10-6 final score with lots of luck for east side that it even looking closer that it really was and remember east had to by far best player in those years,without that it would be like 13-3 at best 12-4.

The only teams I consider true NBA champions from east was 2008 Celtics and Miami 2012 and also maybe 2013 Miami that's it,others east champions team got big big breaks and most of cases because of easier road and coming to finals simply healthier

Last 16 is 10-6 ...after bulls era finished NBA final record is 16-7...that's not close at all

As a Piston fan I can't let that dismissal slide. They played longer more physical series against a defending finalist, and the team with the best record in the league at the time. The Lakers played a banged up Timberwolves team then should have been swept in the finals, needing a Kobe Bryant miracle 3 an OT just to win a game.

You can make the case the Lakers were lucky to get past the Spurs, but we saw in 2005 Detroit/San Antonio were dann even. So it's nonsense to call 2004 luck.

[/piston rant ]

[usagre]

As a Piston fan I can't let that dismissal slide. They played longer more physical series against a defending finalist, and the team with the best record in the league at the time. The Lakers played a banged up Timberwolves team then should have been swept in the finals, needing a Kobe Bryant miracle 3 an OT just to win a game.

You can make the case the Lakers were lucky to get past the Spurs, but we saw in 2005 Detroit/San Antonio were dann even. So it's nonsense to call 2004 luck.

[/piston rant ]

There are no excuses in a 7 game series. Breaks or no breaks you have 7 games to prove who is better.
The only ones you can throw out are one on each side, the ‘19 Raptors and the ‘15 Warriors. The NBA has always been about the superpower team that wins multiple titles and transcends conferences.

You can’t take Shawshank serious when it comes to the NBA because he has a huge agenda. That guides all of his comments.

And apparently he can’t add.

East
‘04 Pistons
‘06 Heat
‘08 Celtics
‘12 Heat
‘13 Heat
‘16 Cavaliers
‘19 Raptors

v. West
‘05 Spurs
‘07 Spurs
‘09 Lakers
‘10 Lakers
‘11 Mavericks
‘14 Spurs
‘15 Warriors
‘17 Warriors
‘18 Warriors

[vivo]

Can't agree here. It matters a lot actually. Take a look what kind of paths till "good standing" will have some Russia or Argentina, which has wide open road till quarterfinals, and that might be even enough to grab Olympic ticket for Argentina and then compare it to the path of Lithuania, Canada and Australia - group of death, then France/Germany in next round and 50% chance of getting USA in quarterfinals

I was just talking about this championship. For Olympic tickets group balance unfortunately matters a lot.

[usagre]

@Dtown

I am sure you are obviously aware of the fact that the 2004-2008 Pistons were probably the second best team in the NBA behind the Spurs during those 5 years. They only won one title but like you mentioned lost the following year in a 7th game in the road in the Finals. 2006 was probably their best team with 64 wins but lost to the Champion Miami Heat (East team)in the Conference finals. Lost in ‘07 to an amazing LeBron in the conference finals and lost to the champion Celtics
(East team again) in the ‘08 conference finals. They get lost in the shuffle but we’re a great team. Just further proof that this West superiority nonsensical talking point is so stupid. If the West was truly superior as some claim then it would have translated in a big disparity in the Finals. Kind of like how the NFC dominated the AFC in the Super Bowl by winning 13 in a row from 1984-1996. But that’s obviously not the case and not even close. Some like to push this nonsense because it feeds into their narrative and furthers their agenda.

[soulis79]

It's difficult to predict.

Oceania: I 'll go with Boomers for the Olympics. New Zealand will be at OQT no matter what.

Africa: There are 3 actual candidates. Nigeria which is the best African team, Cote D'Ivoire with the perfect draw and Tunisia(unless PR gets serious, finally) . 50% to Nigeria, equal chances to other two.

Asia: China is the host, probably the second best team of Asia(Korea is the best) and a very easy group. Iran has chances also. 65%-35% for China.

America: OK, US is the first team. Besides them Canada, Argentina and Brazil have more or less the same chances, for various reasons. DR has no chance to advance. Venezuela could be the only team of America besides US to reach the second phase. It's not very possible, though.

Europe: The draw smiled to three Nations: Serbia, Spain and Italy. I don't count on Russia nor Poland to this. I believe that 2 of them will reach semis and have a very good chance to reach Olympics. From the bottom tier France, Greece and Turkey do have some chances but the path to the Olympics is very difficult.

[sixama23]

Europe: Serbia, Spain
Americas: USA, Argentina
Africa: Nigeria
Asia: China
Oceania: Australia

[Dtown]

We have our first confirmations for this tournament.

Serbia, Italy, Argentina, Russia, Spain, and most notably Poland have all guaranteed they will at least play in the Olympic Qualifying Tournaments next year.

China and Tunisia can both almost cement Olympic qualifications with wins on Wednesday.

Australia can qualify for the Olympics Tuesday if they beat Senegal and New Zealand loses to Montenegro.