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Thread: Olympic Qualification Predictions/Results

  1. #21
    Senior Member vivo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by usagre View Post
    Yet the last 8 champions are equally split 4 each per conference.
    You want to go back further then West has a slight 9-7 lead over the
    Last 16 years. It's a dumb narrative pushed by the media that doesn't hold any water.
    Who cares how hard each conference is it's all about the last team standing and beating that team 4 times.
    Championship number per conference doesn't show that 15 teams each on them are about equal. East was very top heavy until maybe last year whereas West had many solid teams.

    About the Group 1 and Group 2, yes the groups are very unbalanced. It doesn't matter much though, it's different than NBA. You have to beat multiple teams from both sides for a good standing.
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  2. #22
    Moderator Mindozas's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by vivo View Post
    Championship number per conference doesn't show that 15 teams each on them are about equal. East was very top heavy until maybe last year whereas West had many solid teams.

    About the Group 1 and Group 2, yes the groups are very unbalanced. It doesn't matter much though, it's different than NBA. You have to beat multiple teams from both sides for a good standing.
    Can't agree here. It matters a lot actually. Take a look what kind of paths till "good standing" will have some Russia or Argentina, which has wide open road till quarterfinals, and that might be even enough to grab Olympic ticket for Argentina and then compare it to the path of Lithuania, Canada and Australia - group of death, then France/Germany in next round and 50% chance of getting USA in quarterfinals


  3. #23
    Senior Member Shawshank's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by usagre View Post
    Yet the last 8 champions are equally split 4 each per conference.
    You want to go back further then West has a slight 9-7 lead over the
    Last 16 years. It's a dumb narrative pushed by the media that doesn't hold any water.
    Who cares how hard each conference is it's all about the last team standing and beating that team 4 times.
    Firstly it's 10-6 in last 16 years it not even close ...secondly 2006,2013,2016 times east teams came from behind with lots of breaks in those finals and I could argue they weren't better team overall.To think 2019 raptors would beat healthy warriors it's just ain't right.

    From west champs the only 2011 Mavs team was not better that won finals.

    So 10-6 final score with lots of luck for east side that it even looking closer that it really was and remember east had to by far best player in those years,without that it would be like 13-3 at best 12-4.

    The only teams I consider true NBA champions from east was 2008 Celtics and Miami 2012 and also maybe 2013 Miami that's it,others east champions team got big big breaks and most of cases because of easier road and coming to finals simply healthier

    Last 16 is 10-6 ...after bulls era finished NBA final record is 16-7...that's not close at all
    Last edited by Shawshank; 07-31-2019 at 03:23 PM.

  4. #24
    Senior Member Dtown's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shawshank View Post
    Firstly it's 10-6 in last 16 years it not even close ...secondly 2006,2013,2016 times east teams came from behind with lots of breaks in those finals and I could argue they weren't better team overall.To think 2019 raptors would beat healthy warriors it's just ain't right.

    From west champs the only 2011 Mavs team was not better that won finals.

    So 10-6 final score with lots of luck for east side that it even looking closer that it really was and remember east had to by far best player in those years,without that it would be like 13-3 at best 12-4.

    The only teams I consider true NBA champions from east was 2008 Celtics and Miami 2012 and also maybe 2013 Miami that's it,others east champions team got big big breaks and most of cases because of easier road and coming to finals simply healthier

    Last 16 is 10-6 ...after bulls era finished NBA final record is 16-7...that's not close at all
    As a Piston fan I can't let that dismissal slide. They played longer more physical series against a defending finalist, and the team with the best record in the league at the time. The Lakers played a banged up Timberwolves team then should have been swept in the finals, needing a Kobe Bryant miracle 3 an OT just to win a game.

    You can make the case the Lakers were lucky to get past the Spurs, but we saw in 2005 Detroit/San Antonio were dann even. So it's nonsense to call 2004 luck.

    [/piston rant ]
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  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dtown View Post
    As a Piston fan I can't let that dismissal slide. They played longer more physical series against a defending finalist, and the team with the best record in the league at the time. The Lakers played a banged up Timberwolves team then should have been swept in the finals, needing a Kobe Bryant miracle 3 an OT just to win a game.

    You can make the case the Lakers were lucky to get past the Spurs, but we saw in 2005 Detroit/San Antonio were dann even. So it's nonsense to call 2004 luck.

    [/piston rant ]
    There are no excuses in a 7 game series. Breaks or no breaks you have 7 games to prove who is better.
    The only ones you can throw out are one on each side, the ‘19 Raptors and the ‘15 Warriors. The NBA has always been about the superpower team that wins multiple titles and transcends conferences.

    You can’t take Shawshank serious when it comes to the NBA because he has a huge agenda. That guides all of his comments.

    And apparently he can’t add.

    East
    ‘04 Pistons
    ‘06 Heat
    ‘08 Celtics
    ‘12 Heat
    ‘13 Heat
    ‘16 Cavaliers
    ‘19 Raptors

    v. West
    ‘05 Spurs
    ‘07 Spurs
    ‘09 Lakers
    ‘10 Lakers
    ‘11 Mavericks
    ‘14 Spurs
    ‘15 Warriors
    ‘17 Warriors
    ‘18 Warriors
    Last edited by usagre; 07-31-2019 at 08:51 PM.

  6. #26
    Senior Member vivo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mindozas View Post
    Can't agree here. It matters a lot actually. Take a look what kind of paths till "good standing" will have some Russia or Argentina, which has wide open road till quarterfinals, and that might be even enough to grab Olympic ticket for Argentina and then compare it to the path of Lithuania, Canada and Australia - group of death, then France/Germany in next round and 50% chance of getting USA in quarterfinals
    I was just talking about this championship. For Olympic tickets group balance unfortunately matters a lot.
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  7. #27
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    @Dtown

    I am sure you are obviously aware of the fact that the 2004-2008 Pistons were probably the second best team in the NBA behind the Spurs during those 5 years. They only won one title but like you mentioned lost the following year in a 7th game in the road in the Finals. 2006 was probably their best team with 64 wins but lost to the Champion Miami Heat (East team)in the Conference finals. Lost in ‘07 to an amazing LeBron in the conference finals and lost to the champion Celtics
    (East team again) in the ‘08 conference finals. They get lost in the shuffle but we’re a great team. Just further proof that this West superiority nonsensical talking point is so stupid. If the West was truly superior as some claim then it would have translated in a big disparity in the Finals. Kind of like how the NFC dominated the AFC in the Super Bowl by winning 13 in a row from 1984-1996. But that’s obviously not the case and not even close. Some like to push this nonsense because it feeds into their narrative and furthers their agenda.

  8. #28
    Senior Member soulis79's Avatar
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    It's difficult to predict.

    Oceania: I 'll go with Boomers for the Olympics. New Zealand will be at OQT no matter what.

    Africa: There are 3 actual candidates. Nigeria which is the best African team, Cote D'Ivoire with the perfect draw and Tunisia(unless PR gets serious, finally) . 50% to Nigeria, equal chances to other two.

    Asia: China is the host, probably the second best team of Asia(Korea is the best) and a very easy group. Iran has chances also. 65%-35% for China.

    America: OK, US is the first team. Besides them Canada, Argentina and Brazil have more or less the same chances, for various reasons. DR has no chance to advance. Venezuela could be the only team of America besides US to reach the second phase. It's not very possible, though.

    Europe: The draw smiled to three Nations: Serbia, Spain and Italy. I don't count on Russia nor Poland to this. I believe that 2 of them will reach semis and have a very good chance to reach Olympics. From the bottom tier France, Greece and Turkey do have some chances but the path to the Olympics is very difficult.

  9. #29
    Senior Member sixama23's Avatar
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    Europe: Serbia, Spain
    Americas: USA, Argentina
    Africa: Nigeria
    Asia: China
    Oceania: Australia

  10. #30
    Senior Member Dtown's Avatar
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    We have our first confirmations for this tournament.

    Serbia, Italy, Argentina, Russia, Spain, and most notably Poland have all guaranteed they will at least play in the Olympic Qualifying Tournaments next year.

    China and Tunisia can both almost cement Olympic qualifications with wins on Wednesday.

    Australia can qualify for the Olympics Tuesday if they beat Senegal and New Zealand loses to Montenegro.
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  11. #31
    Senior Member soulis79's Avatar
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    After the conclusion of the day 2 of the bellow bracket (groups E,F,G,H) we have confirmed that USA, Brazil, France, Dominican Republic, Australia and Lithuania have all reached at least the Pre-Olympic tournament. Twelve teams until now have achieved this. Seven from Europe, 4 from the Americas and one from Oceania.

    Still in the hunt for at least pre-Olympics qualifications are eight teams. Tunisia, China, Puerto Rico, Venezuela, Turkey, Czech Republic, Greece and New Zealand.

  12. #32
    Senior Member Dtown's Avatar
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    As it stands right now we know we will at least have the 2 Americas, 2 European, 1 Oceania automatic Olympic spots come from second round teams.

    China and Tunisia can still automatically qualify for the Olympics on Wednesday.

    If they both win: 7 OQT spots will be settled in the Qualification Rounds.

    If one wins: 6 OQT will be settled in the QR and either the Asian/African top place finisher.

    If both lose: 5 OQT spots will be settled in the QR along with the Asian Olympic Qualifier and the African Olympic Qualifier,
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  13. #33
    Senior Member Dtown's Avatar
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    Australia becomes the first team to qualify automatically for the Olympics with New Zealand's loss to Greece.

    The Africa and Asia spots will be sorted this weekend.

    There will be 5 OQT spots awarded in the Classification phase. All first place finishers in the classification groups are at least guaranteed the OQT.
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  14. #34
    Senior Member sinobball's Avatar
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    A quick look at upcoming opponents for each Asian/African team:

    China (1 win) - Korea, Nigeria
    Korea - China, Ivory Coast
    Iran - Philippines, Angola
    Philippines - Iran, Tunisia
    Jordan - Canada, Senegal
    Japan - <not pertinent>

    Tunisia (1 win) - Philippines, Angola
    Angola (1 win) - Tunisia, Iran
    Nigeria (1 win) - Ivory Coast, China
    Ivory Coast - Nigeria, Korea
    Senegal - Jordan, Germany

    I have a feeling the Olympic spots will be between China-Iran and Nigeria-Tunisia
    aim low, score high

  15. #35
    Senior Member soulis79's Avatar
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    After the first day of the classification games the two Olympic berts (Asia and Africa) are still open.

    I don't count Jordan because they have to beat Canada, so in Asia it's between China (6 points) and Iran (5 points). If China beats Nigeria then China wins the group and secures Olympic spot. Otherwise Iran needs to beat Philippines and the total margin in both games has to be +20. i.e. Nigeria wins by 1 then Iran needs a win by 19.

    There is also a possibility that Iran wins by a big margin and at the same time Angola beats Tunisia by at least 7. In that case Iran is third on the group and can't reach Olympics.

    In Africa the think is pretty clear. Nigeria needs just one more win or Tunisia lose or Senegal one lose in the next two games.

    Let's wait the results tomorrow to summarise who reaches what.

  16. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by soulis79 View Post
    After the first day of the classification games the two Olympic berts (Asia and Africa) are still open.

    I don't count Jordan because they have to beat Canada, so in Asia it's between China (6 points) and Iran (5 points). If China beats Nigeria then China wins the group and secures Olympic spot. Otherwise Iran needs to beat Philippines and the total margin in both games has to be +20. i.e. Nigeria wins by 1 then Iran needs a win by 19.

    There is also a possibility that Iran wins by a big margin and at the same time Angola beats Tunisia by at least 7. In that case Iran is third on the group and can't reach Olympics.

    In Africa the think is pretty clear. Nigeria needs just one more win or Tunisia lose or Senegal one lose in the next two games.

    Let's wait the results tomorrow to summarise who reaches what.
    Iran needs the total margin of 16, not 20

    and no matter what, Nigeria has to win, because either Tunisia or Angola will win that group (Iran can't win the group) and better PD won't help Nigeria if they finish 2nd behind China

  17. #37
    Senior Member soulis79's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mohsena2631 View Post
    Iran needs the total margin of 16, not 20

    and no matter what, Nigeria has to win, because either Tunisia or Angola will win that group (Iran can't win the group) and better PD won't help Nigeria if they finish 2nd behind China
    You are right, friend. I also think Korea missed a chance today, although their chances were slim.

  18. #38
    Senior Member soulis79's Avatar
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    After Brazil's defeat, Argentina are very close to Olympics. The clash between USA-Brazil is for the second Olympic berth from Americas.

  19. #39
    Senior Member Dtown's Avatar
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    Iran and Nigeria join Australia as qualified.

    OQT is also shaping up..

    Russia, Venezuela, Italy, Puerto Rico, Lithuania, Dominican Republic, Tunisia are locked in.

    Provided there's no blow outs tomorrow
    Germany, Canada, New Zealand, Turkey will also qualify.
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  20. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dtown View Post
    Iran and Nigeria join Australia as qualified.

    OQT is also shaping up..

    Russia, Venezuela, Italy, Puerto Rico, Lithuania, Dominican Republic, Tunisia are locked in.

    Provided there's no blow outs tomorrow
    Germany, Canada, New Zealand, Turkey will also qualify.
    And how will the groups for OQT be determined? I assume China will accidentally fall into the group with DR, Tunisia and Venezuela

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