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Thread: Olympic Qualification Predictions/Results

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    Default Olympic Qualification Predictions/Results

    As most of you know starting with this World Cup, Olympic Qualification is now primarily the result of this tournament.

    7 Teams automatically qualify, the best 2 Americas, 2 Europe, 1 Africa, 1 Asia, 1 Oceania

    The next best 16 teams will qualify for the Olympic Qualifying Tournaments next year.

    Because of this classification games are back and actually might have meaning.

    So this is the thread to keep track of all of it. Who's in, who's out, and if a 16th place game will matter or not.
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    Weirdest thing is that there are no classification games for places 9-16, while there are classification games for places 17-32. I know there is a reason for this having to do with the method of Olympic qualification, but it is strange nonetheless.

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    Quote Originally Posted by christodoulou76 View Post
    Weirdest thing is that there are no classification games for places 9-16, while there are classification games for places 17-32. I know there is a reason for this having to do with the method of Olympic qualification, but it is strange nonetheless.
    There's a 5-8 classification bracket as well. 9-16 seems to have been neglected for some reason, fiba's basically just assigning 9-12 to the third place second round teams and 13-16 to the 4th place.
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    I remember now why there are no classification games for 9-16. This is because the 16 best teams at the World Cup (after the 7 automatic qualifiers) will qualify for the Olympic qualifying tournament. This means that all the 9-16 teams will either automatically qualify for the Olympics (as one of the 7 teams that will do so - 2 Americas, 2 Europe, etc.) or they will be included in the 16 teams that will qualify for the qualifying tournament. So the ranking of teams within the 9-16 range is not strictly necessary. However, only some of the teams in the 17-32 range will qualify for the qualifying tournament, so classification games are necessary.

    One could make the argument that classification games for 9-16 are also necessary since there could be two teams in that range competing for one of the automatic slots and it would be fairer to play classification games to determine which team this should be.

    For instance in this scenario:
    1. USA (automatic qualifier: 1st American)
    2. Serbia (automatic qualifier: 1st European)
    3. Australia (automatic qualifier: Oceania)
    4. Lithuania (automatic qualifier: 2nd European)
    5. Spain (qualifying tournament)
    6. France (qualifying tournament)
    7. Italy (qualifying tournament)
    8. Greece (qualifying tournament)
    9. Argentina (automatic qualifier: 2nd American)
    10. Brazil (qualifying tournament)

    In this scenario, because the 9th and 10th places are automatically determined rather than fought for through classification games, Argentina receives its automatic qualification for the Olympics over Brazil without having to face Brazil in a classification game.

    http://www.fiba.basketball/qualification-og
    Last edited by christodoulou76; 07-23-2019 at 03:42 PM.

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    They are having "Classification Round" group games for teams 17-32, but no further playoff beyond that (i.e. there's no 17th place game) so it isn't really any different for teams 9-16.

    Even though all of the top 16 are guaranteed spots in at least the OQTs, the rankings could still make a difference for the automatic Olympic spots.
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    Quote Originally Posted by JGX View Post
    They are having "Classification Round" group games for teams 17-32, but no further playoff beyond that (i.e. there's no 17th place game) so it isn't really any different for teams 9-16.

    Even though all of the top 16 are guaranteed spots in at least the OQTs, the rankings could still make a difference for the automatic Olympic spots.
    Yes, you're right. So the same problem I identified with 9-16 classification could very well occur in the 17-32 range.

    http://www.fiba.basketball/basketbal...etition-system

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    Predictions for automatic spots:
    Oceania: Australia
    Europe: Serbia, France
    Americas: USA, no idea (because Canada might not even get out of their group)
    Africa: Nigeria
    Asia: China

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    With all the additional absences I'll probably have to change this sooner or later.

    Oceania: Australia
    Europe: Serbia, France
    Americas: USA, Argentina
    Africa: Nigeria
    Asia: China

    Oceania, I think Australia's the better team in a much harder group. I don't think New Zealand gets out of round 1, if the Aussies don't either they'll finish better in classification.

    Europe, Best two European sides in my opinion. Spain has a shot because their first two groups are awful. Greece if they can get out of the first two rounds has a shot as well.

    Americas, Even with as many absences as the US has, apart from Greece no team in the first 2 rounds gives me pause. Absolute worst case scenario they lose in the round of 8 and I don't buy that either. I don't think Argentina is as good as Canada, but their road is much much much easier.

    Africa, I don't think any african team makes the second round, but I feel Nigeria would be the most likely. Failing that they should have a good classification.

    Asia, I voted China, but like Africa don't see anyone making the second round. Iran would be a strong dark horse.
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    Oceania: Australia (even if they don't advance, I think NZL will be at the bottom of group F)
    Europe: Serbia, Spain (biggest chance because of easy road to SF)
    Americas: USA, Argentina (I think Canada is a better team than ARG, but ARG has an easy road to QF, while CAN can be out in the first group)
    Africa: Nigeria (maybe Angola. In my opinion, both of them will finish in the 17-32 qualification rounds, but Angola will have tougher opponents there)
    Asia: China (host. Good chance to advance to Round 2)
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    How manny teams from 17-32 places makes to Olympic qualification tournaments? Is it some direct number of places that's get tickets to qualification tournament next summer from 17-32?

    Lets say you win the loosers group and are qualified in standing's as 17-20 place team right?

    If you get only second place in loosers group and you are in standing's 21-24 is that enough to make qualifcation tournament next summer?

    Or it also depends from continent? Let's say for Angola 2 Nd place in loosers group is enough , but team like Lithuania because Europe continent isn't enough?
    Last edited by Shawshank; 07-26-2019 at 03:11 PM.

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    7 direct tickets to Olympic games and after that 16 best team? So that makes top 23 so one of the 2nd place in loosers group isn't getting ticket all other winners of 1st and 2nd places of loosers groups is getting more less like that?
    Last edited by Shawshank; 07-26-2019 at 03:30 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Shawshank View Post
    How manny teams from 17-32 places makes to Olympic qualification tournaments? Is it some direct number of places that's get tickets to qualification tournament next summer from 17-32?

    Lets say you win the loosers group and are qualified in standing's as 17-20 place team right?

    If you get only second place in loosers group and you are in standing's 21-24 is that enough to make qualifcation tournament next summer?

    Or it also depends from continent? Let's say for Angola 2 Nd place in loosers group is enough , but team like Lithuania because Europe continent isn't enough?
    https://www.fiba.basketball/qualification-og


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    Quote Originally Posted by Shawshank View Post
    7 direct tickets to Olympic games and after that 16 best team? So that makes top 23 so one of the 2nd place in loosers group isn't getting ticket all other winners of 1st and 2nd places of loosers groups is getting more less like that?
    One or more of the 7 automatically qualified teams might not be in the top 24 in the final standings of the World Cup. The most likely scenario is

    1. USA Americas #1 automatic qualifier
    2. Serbia Europe #1 automatic qualifier
    3. France Europe #2 automatic qualifier
    4. other Europe --> OQT 1
    5. other Europe --> OQT 2
    6. other Europe --> OQT 3
    7. Australia Oceania automatic qualifier
    8. other Europe --> OQT 4
    9. some Americas team Americas #2 automatic qualifier
    10-21 all teams to OQT

    further down the standings
    China Asia automatic qualifier
    and
    Nigeria Africa automatic qualifier

    So I would suggest that if you want to guarantee that you will make it to the OQT you better be in the top 21. But highly regarded teams, if they somehow didn't make it into the top 21, will certainly get a wild card to an OQT tournament. Two more teams per region will be invited to the OQTs after the World Cup.

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    Quote Originally Posted by christodoulou76 View Post
    But highly regarded teams, if they somehow didn't make it into the top 21, will certainly get a wild card to an OQT tournament. Two more teams per region will be invited to the OQTs after the World Cup.
    Heard that it won't be wildcards, but highest ranked non-qualified teams in FIBA ranking. If so, there's very good chance for Slovenia/Croatia, who even won't participate


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    The only placements that are guaranteed at this point are

    1: Both finalists will make the Olympics.

    2: Every one who makes the 2nd round is guaranteed to at least make the Olympic qualifying tournament.

    3: 17-23 will at least make the qualifying tournament.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dtown View Post
    The only placements that are guaranteed at this point are...17-23 will at least make the qualifying tournament.
    Teams that finish in 22nd or 23rd spots are not guaranteed to make the OQT (see my post above)

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    Quote Originally Posted by christodoulou76 View Post
    Teams that finish in 22nd or 23rd spots are not guaranteed to make the OQT (see my post above)
    Actually I think we're both wrong. 23 is not guaranteed you're right on that. But assuming Africa/Asia make up the bottom the best African/Asian team would be 22nd. That team would go to the Olympics. So the statement should be 17-22 will at least make the qualifying tournament, as every team in that range would either go to the Olympics directly or the Qualifying tournament.
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    Let's imagine 2 groups:

    1st group

    Spain,Serbia,Russia, Argentina, Italy,Poland,Puerturico,China

    2nd group

    USA,Australia,Greece,Lithuania, Canada, France,Germany, Turkey

    And goal would be make top 2 in respected group and seriuos shot for medal.If you take 3rd or lesser you have no shot for medal.

    I don't think 2 groups teams ( except of USA) would be very optimistic overall about their chances , but that's how chinas draws made them.

    It's very similar to nba east and west.One conference have 2-3 really good teams and all others very mediocre ones and other conference all top 8 teams are atleast 50 win level teams + also with one basically unbeatable dinasty team on top.

    I would argue that making west confe finals it's harder to do than to win east conference.Same here for Serbia/Spain making final is easier than for 2 group teams making semifinal.
    Last edited by Shawshank; 07-31-2019 at 02:35 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Shawshank View Post
    Let's imagine 2 groups:

    1st group

    Spain,Serbia,Russia, Argentina, Italy,Poland,Puerturico,China

    2nd group

    USA,Australia,Greece,Lithuania, Canada, France,Germany, Turkey

    And goal would be make top 2 in respected group and seriuos shot for medal.If you take 3rd or lesser you have no shot for medal.

    I don't think 2 groups teams ( except of USA) would be very optimistic overall about their chances , but that's how chinas draws made them.

    It's very similar to nba east and west.One conference have 2-3 really good teams and all others very mediocre ones and other conference all top 8 teams are atleast 50 win level teams + also with one basically unbeatable dinasty team on top.

    I would argue that making west confe finals it's harder to do than to win east conference.Same here for Serbia/Spain making final is easier than for 2 group teams making semifinal.
    I mostly agree with you. It's absolutely easier for Spain/Seribia to make the knockout stage.

    However I'm not sure it's easier for them to make the final. Unlike the NBA Conference example, the knockout stage is mixed, and the 3rd/4th team that make it through group 2 will be playing Spain/Serbia which isn't going to be easy by any stretch.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shawshank View Post


    It's very similar to nba east and west.One conference have 2-3 really good teams and all others very mediocre ones and other conference all top 8 teams are atleast 50 win level teams + also with one basically unbeatable dinasty team on top.
    .
    Yet the last 8 champions are equally split 4 each per conference.
    You want to go back further then West has a slight 9-7 lead over the
    Last 16 years. It's a dumb narrative pushed by the media that doesn't hold any water.
    Who cares how hard each conference is it's all about the last team standing and beating that team 4 times.

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