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Thread: 2019 FIBA World Cup Draw [Shenzhen, China, Mar 16]

  1. #21
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    Fiba wants to talk about how great this 2 year qualifiying period was than why don’t they put their money where their mouths is and use it as the sole determining factor in seeding ? Stop talking about how great it was when the majority of players that participated are not going to be on the rosters this summer.

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Steadysoul View Post
    Big oof for canada.
    Sure depending on the groups some will be easier than others but in all probabilities you’re asking them to win one game against one quality opponent (Australia, Russia or Italy) in order to advance. That’s not really asking a lot. If you can’t do that I can’t really sympathize.

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Steadysoul View Post
    Big oof for canada.
    Sort of expected right?
    The insult to injury was to be dropped to Pot 6 when some other scenarios were possible (or were they?).


    So Serbia, Lithuania or Greece? I suppose Greece would be the preferred match-up, even with Giannis based on their pasted struggles integrating him (he is a different player now).

    Australia, Russia, Italy? No thanks to Australia - that would be a kick in the nuts if they put Canada and Australia together. Would do you guys think is weaker between Italy and Russia (I guess it depends on who plays)?

    Senegal, Nigeria, Tunisia, NZ - who do you think is the weakest one there? We handled NZ and Senegal at the Olympic Qualifiers fairly well (but no Dieng for Senegal). Dont know much about Tunisia or current day Nigeria.



    I always wonder how much corruption is involved in this process. We know much of the world works on bribes, kick-backs, back scratching etc. Certain regions of the world that is just a way of life - FIBA and FIFA operate in that world. As much as it shocks American or Western Europeans, it is normal business for the Middle East, Africa, some parts of Asia and Eastern/Southern Europe. China is clearly on the receiving end of some favorable decisions here and they probably paid up for it in some manner (maybe just being the host is enough to make sure this is a financial success). We know FIBA has a long history of extracting payments or concessions from countries (selling Wild Cards) so it is probably happening to some degree here. Even if payments are not involved there is always the thought of the likelyhood of future payments or "favors" from countries..
    Canada, NZ, Australia, USA and Western and Northern Europe are the least corrupt areas in the world and very likely will provide no payments or very little meaningful "favors" to FIBA.

    So I won't really be surprised to see a Lithuania, Australia, Canada, NZ pool as Russia and the African nations offer up consideration for a more favorable draw. None of us know for sure - but it is always in the background and probably impacts these sorts of things more than we know.

    The good news is that if you hail from a more corrupt country you have hope for a more favorable draw!
    Last edited by mojo13; 03-15-2019 at 03:58 PM.

  4. #24
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    @mojo13. They were a slave to those rankings. So once we understand that there was no other way. Canada had to be swapped with Iran in order to keep the geographical principles in order. If you move them to pot 5 then they can only be grouped with Turkey from group 4 who can only be grouped with the USA which kills that because of 2 Americas teams together.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mojo13 View Post
    Sort of expected right?
    The insult to injury was to be dropped to Pot 6 when some other scenarios were possible (or were they?).


    So Serbia, Lithuania or Greece? I suppose Greece would be the preferred match-up, even with Giannis based on their pasted struggles integrating him (he is a different player now).

    Australia, Russia, Italy? No thanks to Australia - that would be a kick in the nuts if they put Canada and Australia together. Would do you guys think is weaker between Italy and Russia (I guess it depends on who plays)?

    Senegal, Nigeria, Tunisia, NZ - who do you think is the weakest one there? We handled NZ and Senegal at the Olympic Qualifiers fairly well (but no Dieng for Senegal). Dont know much about Tunisia or current day Nigeria.
    Best Case for Canada I believe would be
    Greece (really you're going to get stuck facing a good team regardless, but of the three Greece is the least proven)
    Russia (assuming Italy brings their best)
    Senegal (Worst of the four available, but beyond maybe New Zealand none of them should pose a big threat)

    Worst Case
    Serbia
    Australia
    Nigeria (as New Zealand can't be drawn with Aus)
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    Quote Originally Posted by usagre View Post
    @mojo13. They were a slave to those rankings. So once we understand that there was no other way. Canada had to be swapped with Iran in order to keep the geographical principles in order. If you move them to pot 5 then they can only be grouped with Turkey from group 4 who can only be grouped with the USA which kills that because of 2 Americas teams together.
    What about keeping Canada in Pot 5 - moving Germany to 4 swapping with DR, VEN or PR? Didn't that work?

  7. #27
    Senior Member Steadysoul's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mojo13 View Post
    Sort of expected right?
    The insult to injury was to be dropped to Pot 6 when some other scenarios were possible (or were they?).


    So Serbia, Lithuania or Greece? I suppose Greece would be the preferred match-up, even with Giannis based on their pasted struggles integrating him (he is a different player now).

    Australia, Russia, Italy? No thanks to Australia - that would be a kick in the nuts if they put Canada and Australia together. Would do you guys think is weaker between Italy and Russia (I guess it depends on who plays)?

    Senegal, Nigeria, Tunisia, NZ - who do you think is the weakest one there? We handled NZ and Senegal at the Olympic Qualifiers fairly well (but no Dieng for Senegal). Dont know much about Tunisia or current day Nigeria.



    I always wonder how much corruption is involved in this process. We know much of the world works on bribes, kick-backs, back scratching etc. Certain regions of the world that is just a way of life - FIBA and FIFA operate in that world. As much as it shocks American or Western Europeans, it is normal business for the Middle East, Africa, some parts of Asia and Eastern/Southern Europe. China is clearly on the receiving end of some favorable decisions here and they probably paid up for it in some manner (maybe just being the host is enough to make sure this is a financial success). We know FIBA has a long history of extracting payments or concessions from countries (selling Wild Cards) so it is probably happening to some degree here. Even if payments are not involved there is always the thought of the likelyhood of future payments or "favors" from countries..
    Canada, NZ, Australia, USA and Western and Northern Europe are the least corrupt areas in the world and very likely will provide no payments or very little meaningful "favors" to FIBA.

    So I won't really be surprised to see a Lithuania, Australia, Canada, NZ pool as Russia and the African nations offer up consideration for a more favorable draw. None of us know for sure - but it is always in the background and probably impacts these sorts of things more than we know.

    The good news is that if you hail from a more corrupt country you have hope for a more favorable draw!
    Nigeria is the last African team I'd want to play if I was Canada. They're probably the best African team ever when at full strength. This is the team that had to beat both Lithuania and Greece to make the Olympics in 2012.
    If Greece learns the lesson from the Bucks this year and surround him with shooters he'll be hard to stop for a lot of teams.

  8. #28
    Senior Member Steadysoul's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mojo13 View Post
    What about keeping Canada in Pot 5 - moving Germany to 4 swapping with DR, VEN or PR? Didn't that work?
    isn't the easiest move just switching canada and Iran though?

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    Quote Originally Posted by mojo13 View Post
    What about keeping Canada in Pot 5 - moving Germany to 4 swapping with DR, VEN or PR? Didn't that work?
    I think they decided to drop in seeding the worst ranked team they could while keeping their geographical principles in order. If they did that it would drop Venezuela from a #4 to a #5. With Canada it was a #5 to a #6. That’s the only thing I can come up with.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Steadysoul View Post
    Nigeria is the last African team I'd want to play if I was Canada. They're probably the best African team ever when at full strength. This is the team that had to beat both Lithuania and Greece to make the Olympics in 2012.
    If Greece learns the lesson from the Bucks this year and surround him with shooters he'll be hard to stop for a lot of teams.

    I am not buying the African teams. That was 7 years ago and then in the actual Olympics they were not good.
    The problem might be that Greek shooters don’t exist to surround him with.

  11. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by usagre View Post
    I am not buying the African teams. That was 7 years ago and then in the actual Olympics they were not good.
    The problem might be that Greek shooters don’t exist to surround him with.
    It's not about buying them as good but be honest, if an African team is going to pull off an upset which team are you picking? It's Nigeria.

  12. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by usagre View Post
    I am not buying the African teams. That was 7 years ago and then in the actual Olympics they were not good.
    The problem might be that Greek shooters don’t exist to surround him with.
    To be fair to Nigeria they also beat Croatia in the 2016 Olympics.

    Now that's not to say Canada should be worried about them, Nigeria does much better against lesser athletic squads, but they're still probably the worst opponent to face from Africa.
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  13. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dtown View Post
    To be fair to Nigeria they also beat Croatia in the 2016 Olympics.

    Now that's not to say Canada should be worried about them, Nigeria does much better against lesser athletic squads, but they're still probably the worst opponent to face from Africa.
    I think it might be a toss up with them and Angola. But like you said honestly I wouldn’t be worried about any of them.

  14. #34

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    As a Lithuania's fan, I probably would like to go this way:


    Russia, Brazil, Australia, Italy - Italy or Brazil. I'm afraid Shved would drop 40pts against us so no Russia please, Australia is tough, talented and has good guards so a nightmare match-up, I would go with Brazil, Italy is second best option.

    Canada, Montenegro, Philippines, Korea - either Philippines or Korea obviously. Would go with the latter.

    Nigeria, Senegal, New Zealand, Angola - No Nigeria please, we needed to give a lot to beat them in Olympics, imagine if they would also had Giannis. Senegal has one NBA player, New Zealand might have Steve Adams and some other quality players, so I would go with Angola, even if I have tough memories from 00's.

    I don't see a lot of problems with these drawings. We'll have one really strong opponent and we better do, because going to the knock out stage without such game would be a bad thing to happen. Even if we will end up with Australia, Canada, Nigeria we should absolutely go for all wins and I don't see us falling out from 2 best spots. However, I have a feeling will get rather comfortable opponents.

    PS: Very quickly switching Angola with Senegal
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    Obviously China is a poor #1 seed but in my opinion, Argentina is weak, Greece without Giannis (a serious possibility) is weak, and Lithuania is a serious cut below France, Spain, Serbia and the USA. So if teams like Canada and Australia(if they are not grouped together) send their best possible players they are de facto #1 seed quality teams.

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    Quote Originally Posted by usagre View Post
    I think they decided to drop in seeding the worst ranked team they could while keeping their geographical principles in order. If they did that it would drop Venezuela from a #4 to a #5. With Canada it was a #5 to a #6. That’s the only thing I can come up with.

    That is correct - It was confirmed by FIBA. Canada was bumped instead of another Americas team is that they do the pots from the top down, so the first Americas conflict didn't come up until they reached Canada. Basically they just went in order until there was a conflict, then adjusted from there downward. I figured it would be wiser to do something about competitive balance rather than stick to a formula. But here we are.

    Anyone know if Australia - NZ are considered Oceania for the the draw purpose or are they Asia and can not be placed with KOR/PHI from our Pot (thus giving AUS a 50/50 shot at CAN/MRE)?

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    I don’t know how it will play out but for me if you’re gonna elevate China to one of the top 8 seeds then at least they should have been number 8 and in Pot 2 not pot one. Serbia should have been in Pot 1.

  18. #38

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    Quote Originally Posted by usagre View Post
    Greece without Giannis (a serious possibility) is weak
    Too strong words. Way too strong Greece beat Lithuania without Giannis in Eurobasket 2017. Lithuania had some key absences as Sabonis, Lekavicius, Seibutis, but Greece still has elite backourt with Calathes and Sloukas. This due is ahead in terms of IQ, FIBA experience and overall quality than most teams starting guards including Canada. Some veterans already washing out, but they are still a good team even without Giannis.

    Quote Originally Posted by usagre View Post
    Lithuania is a serious cut below France, Spain, Serbia and the USA
    Depends what you call serious. If we will pack our best possible line-up it might be the best team since a while. We manhandled fully packed Serbia in 2015 EB semis with much less talented roster. This doesn't happen every time obviously, but Lithuania will be notably stronger than it was in 2016,2017, f.e. So correct, but slippery statement.
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  19. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by mojo13 View Post

    Anyone know if Australia - NZ are considered Oceania for the the draw purpose or are they Asia and can not be placed with KOR/PHI from our Pot (thus giving AUS a 50/50 shot at CAN/MRE)?
    Considered part of Asia, the youtube video they had explicitly stated that KOR/PHI can't be in the same group as Australia.
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    @ Straight Forward. Fiba experience isn’t as important as it was years ago. Nba game and Fiba closest in style that it has ever been. Give me the talent and athleticism of a Jamal Murray/ Corey Joseph duo over Sloukas/ Calathes any day of the week and twice on Sunday. And if Giannis doesn’t show and the Canadian stars do, there is a huge disparity in the wings and bigs of the two teams in Canada’s favor.

    Lithuanian backcourt worries me. It has been weak in other tournaments and overcome to a degree by Lithuania but with increased importance of guards and wings and decreased importance of bigs I think this hurts Lithuania immensely.

    I’ll be honest what worries me the most about Canada is not their roster composition but their coach. It seems like he has a lifetime job.

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