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Thread: WC 2019 Power Rankings

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    Birth of his child in June with complications expected to be involved.

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    Jokic finally confirmed - he will play for Serbia!

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    Senior Member Dtown's Avatar
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    Sources say Canada finally gets a coach, and it's a good one.

    Sources say Toronto Raptors head coach Nick Nurse will manage Team Canada at World Cup.
    Pistons: 2018-2019 In the middle of nowhere

    Bronze medal 2013 Eurobasket prediction Game.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dtown View Post
    Sources say Canada finally gets a coach, and it's a good one.

    Sources say Toronto Raptors head coach Nick Nurse will manage Team Canada at World Cup.
    Yeah...just saw that as well. Quite interesting.

    Sounds like the report of Gordie Herbert was a little off and he is coming in as an assistant. Which is great. Nurseís FIBA experience is a little old.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mojo13 View Post
    Opinions on specific rankings are pretty meaningless until we see the rosters. Greece with no Giannis? Serbia with no Jokic? Iíd just stick with tiers until we know more about rosters.

    NBA players have had a pretty poor turnout rate the last few years too, so who really know what Australia and Canada will show up with? Both countryís talent pools are top 4 in my opinion, but that doesnít matter if guys donít show up. Donít underestimate the pressure NBA clubs and agents on putting on guys to not play FIBA nowadays.
    Giannis with a deep playoff run? Jokic too with all his little injuries and history of not playing. Gobert too? The Gasols at their age?- anyone this there is more than a 50/50 chance of any of these guys playing?



    Without knowing rosters Iíd tier them up like this:

    Tier 1:
    USA

    Tier 2:
    Australia
    Canada
    France
    Greece
    Lithuania
    Serbia
    Spain

    Tier 3:
    Russia
    Italy
    Turkey
    Germany
    Czech Republic
    Brazil
    Argentina.
    Montenegro

    Tier 4
    Poland
    Dominican Rebublic
    Puerto Rico
    Venezuela
    New Zealand
    China

    Tier 5:
    Angola
    Japan
    Nigeria
    Senegal
    Philippines.
    Tunisia
    Iran
    Korea.
    Cote d'Ivoire
    Jordan
    It looks ok for me, if you change greece. Greece is even with Giannis not in that group. Without Giannis greeks are not even mentionable. They neglected to raise up prospects for an entire decade. Especially in the center position and also power forward they are really weak. A 36 year old Bourousis, a never playing Koufos and Papagiannis who couldnt play 30 games in 3 years in the nba.

    And at 4 you just have an old Printezis, who played a horrible Euroleague season and just Mitoglou.

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    Giannis was horrible so far in FIBA competition , his lack of shooting is even more evident in those tournament , he's been quite exposed there. Canada, Australia and France in front of Serbia,you got to be kidding.
    UZEO SI TROFEJ MACVANE MACVANE MACVANE!!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Srle View Post
    Giannis was horrible so far in FIBA competition , his lack of shooting is even more evident in those tournament , he's been quite exposed there. Canada, Australia and France in front of Serbia,you got to be kidding.
    Those are merely tiers with alphabetical listings within the tiers (for the first tier)- not a ranking. It is also prior to knowing anyone's roster or the draw). Serbia is my silver medal favorite (probably Vegas's favorite as well). Tough to really rank anyone clearly until we see rosters - but Serbia would be #2 or #3 in most people's list regardless.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mojo13 View Post
    Sounding like Gordon Herbert (Fraport Skyliners - BBL) is going to be Canada's head coach.

    Any of you following European bball closer have much an opinion of Gordie Herbert? Please educate me.
    A fairly good coach, imo. Yet his results are somewhat unstable and when the overall "team system" is functioning with high efficiency, he proves to be capable with mindul organization of the game and successful neutralization of opposing team's strengths. But it's not always the case and if something is broken (like team chemistry, for example), then he can't serve as an 'emergency repair' type of coach, more of a 'system guy', I guess.

    Generally he uses moderately deep rosters but with a couple of guys who play a lot and perform as clear "go-to" players. Most emblematic example is the role he gave to local Frankfurt's legend Tez Robertson (who is a helluva baller, by the way, much better than many highly hyped EL and even NBA "stars"). Gordie generally prefers fast tempo, mobile bigs and multiple guys who play with the ball and also distribute it (and this includes wingers). Still the style of the game highly depends on the roster he currently can rely on and can shift from bigger to lesser focus on perimeter. Yet generally he prefers most of the players to be solid shooters (as opposed to athletic muscleheads) and that include bigs, especially PFs and 3/4 tweeners, so definitely in most of his combinations there is a big 'stretching the floor'component involved.

    Generally, Gordie's teams (and this means Frankfurt Skyliners, first and foremost, as he coaches this team for many, many years - though in multiple stints - which does not happen that often in Europe) play sensible, even tatcically nuanced offense but defense is more of a gamble (sometimes very good, sometimes not so much) and there is a lack of mental toughness and ability to 'finish off' the opponent.

    Nevertheless, I think he is a good coach but I don't know how comfortable he'll be at the helm of Canada NT. He is a mainstay in Bundesliga and, afaik, he is a highly respected coach there. Moreover, he had won a BBL coach of the year award back in 2016 and this is a good sign since in BBL the level of coaching is even higher than the level of players pool (which is also a reasonably high one). Imho, Herbert is much better than, for example, current Bulls' assistant coach Fleming who also successfully coached in Germany but among 'overseas BBL coaches' I tend to like John Patrick even more.

    Big advantage of Herbert lies in the fact that he is totally comfortable and highly adapted to FIBA/international style of basketball but the question remains if he can adapt most of his (demi)star players to this style, especially those with big ego.

    Quote Originally Posted by mojo13 View Post
    Here is the announced Aussie 17 man squad.

    17-MAN AUSTRALIAN BOOMERS SQUAD

    DENG ADEL - Cleveland Cavaliers (NBA)
    ARON BAYNES - Boston Celtics (NBA)
    TODD BLANCHFIELD - Illawarra Hawks
    ANDREW BOGUT - Sydney Kings/Golden State Warriors (NBA)
    JONAH BOLDEN - Philadelphia 76ers (NBA)
    MITCH CREEK - South East Melbourne Phoenix
    MATTHEW DELLAVEDOVA - Cleveland Cavaliers (NBA)
    CAMERON GLIDDON - Brisbane Bullets
    CHRIS GOULDING - Melbourne United
    JOE INGLES - Utah Jazz (NBA)
    NICHOLAS KAY - Perth Wildcats
    JOCK LANDALE - Partizan (Serbia)
    MITCH MCCARRON -Melbourne United
    PATTY MILLS - San Antonio Spurs (NBA)
    BROCK MOTUM - Anadolu Efes (Turkey)
    BEN SIMMONS - Philadelphia 76ers (NBA)
    NATHAN SOBEY - Brisbane Bullets



    Top 3 or 4 talent IMO.
    For me that's a very mediocre (even if predictably mediocre) roster. If Canada and Lietuva won't royally fuck up, then I suspect that Aussies will be that very "powerhouse" to pack their belongings early.

    Especially weak is the backcourt rotation and C position is simply atrocious. Dellavedova finally shown his (mundane, unremarkable) worth. For the league where they never play defense during RS he can be a defensive monster, that bulldog of sorts, but I don't think that it will successfully translate into defnsive dominance in China. Patty is a mentally unstable, incurable primadonna in a team where he should be a sharp-shooting energizer off-the-bench. Goulding, the only pure shooter with a decent background, most probably will play only garbage time if he makes a roster. All the other backcourt rotation variants are either unproven or definitely subpar. Unexplainable and inexcusable absense of Broekhoff (a good all-around player who is also a terrific spot-up shooter) leaves Aussies only with Mills as a confident perimeter option. Nope, you Boomers, that's not enough to succeed in this day and age. There are weird things happening (mediocre Slovenian team winning Eurobasket is an icing on the cake of recent absurdities) but here I highly doubt that a team with one decent run in a big international tournament during the last 15 years will overcome such an obstacle.

    Non-shooting Creek, extremely streaky shooting Adel and old 5.5 ppg in EL "NBA star" Ingles, I pity the team with such a 'perfect' rotation on the wing (well, that doesn't count one famous 'point forward' but I've talked about shooting aspect, so this omission is understandable). But that pales in comparison towards the depths of depravity which reign supreme on C position. Landale, most probably a third option right now, is the best of them but he makes Tomic and Pleiss look like lockdown defenders in the paint. Bogut seems to be old as dirt (though he is not that old but he makes such an impression) and slow as molasses... well, these days he is not even a particularly good option for NBL. Retarded lumberjack Baynes (a potentially promising player back in the day whose potential was wasted in NBA) comes off fresh from one of his worst NBA season and a big of his built, speed and playing manner can cut it on this level some 15 years ago but today he is like australopithecus sadistically reanimated back to life in some Lovecraftian fashion. Motum, who can play some minutes as C, also had a rough season in Efes and is a big question mark (despite me having sympathy for his uncut, sloppy yet diligent 'take-no-bullshit' playing style).

    About the quality of local NBL constituent I also have my doubts since best of these guys tend to play in Europe every now and then once the NBL season is over and it doesn't look that they are valuable assets on the equal footing with the older Boomers generation (shit, those were the ones who were good enough to play in Europe full-time). For example, NT candidate Nathan Sobey got the stats of 4.5 ppg + 1.9 apg playing for Starsbourg (15 games).

    Some interesting (and rare in this day and age) European options are overlooked - I think that there should be a place in this roster for someone like Ben Madgen, even if he's old, but they need shooters like him. Also with guys like Blanchfield and Kay being singled out for this 'wide roster', I wonder why Xavier Cooks is not named - he's young and inexperienced but this is a player with a definite upside, very versatile and agile forward who likes to run the floor, plays hard through the contact and grabs rebounds at a solid rate but who also progresses a lot in sharing the ball and understanding the game. The most infuriating is the missing of Mangok Mathiang who is the only Aussie big who can give them a much needed rebounding edge. Right now he is much better than Baynes and (today's) Bogut combined. I mean, he's rough around the edges but that guy is a rebounding machine and for an unadulterated athletic beast he expanded his offensive potential a lot since his Louisville days. Mangok is one of the main guys for a team which made it to the semies in Lega A.

    Yet here we have Ben Simmons surrounded by non-shooters and ageing slow bigs... that should be a recipe for disaster if there is some form of the higher basketball justice.

    Also there is a lot of talk how Australia is brimming with "NBA talent" but I've just checked who among Aussie NBAers played more than 20 minutes per game this season (that's not a terrific number even for an international player, it's a level of mediocrity like Maxi Kleber). Simmons, Patty, Ingles (another total mediocrity) and... that's all. This season even Delly played less. Huh, that doesn't sound like Top 3 or 4 talent for me.

    P.S. I have nothing personal against our lovely antipodes, moreover, I even sympathized with their national team some 10-15 years ago but right now their team is one of the most overrated ones.
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    Well in that group everything can happen and I wouldnt also overestimate the Lithuanians. Their biggest problem is still Mantas Kalnietis. He is a catastrophy as a pg and even a european powerhouse in BB like couldnt solve his pg problem. Big rotation with Valenciunas, Domantas Sabonis, Maciulis and Kavaliauskas is more than ok but the shorts will be a big problem.

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    Oh, I've missed that Canadians chose a nurse to coach their team. Not the best decision, I suppose

    Quote Originally Posted by Srle View Post
    France in front of Serbia,you got to be kidding.
    France has a potential roster twice as good as Serbia and thrice as deep

    My "tiers ranking".

    Tier I. USA (how big is a distance between them and any Tier II team depends on the roster they assemble).

    Tier II. France, Spain, Canada (a lot depends on their roster and team chemistry), Serbia: ordered power-wise.

    Tier III. Argentina, Australia, Germany, Greece, Italy, Lithuania, Russia: ordered alphabetically.

    Tier IV. Montenegro, Brazil, Turkey, Czech Republic, Poland, New Zealand, Nigeria, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico.

    Tier V. Venezuela, China, Senegal, Cote d'Ivoire, Angola.

    Tier VI. Philippines, Japan, Tunisia, Iran, Jordan, Southern Korea.
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    Russia, Germany and Argentina stronger than Turkey? You must be kidding. hahahahahahaa

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    This reply is partly directed at Mojo, and mainly to Terroizer, mainly to do with the assessments of players and leagues.

    One thing that bugs me, is that Australia's performance in the Rio Olympics (5-3 record, all wins by a minimum of fifteen points) was some kind of fluke. Going into the Olympics, I was quietly confident that Australia would do well, I was less confident that in 2008 and 2012, when for example, Patty Mills as a collegian was our best player in 2008 and Dellavedova was a starter in 2012. Most true North American experts will tell you that a US collegiate team would have no chance of medalling in these type of events, so I knew that Australia would not medal with a collegiate Dellavedova as a starter, especially someone who didn't appear NBA bound.

    In fact, I may even agree with Terrorizer that Australia is perhaps a little overrated as the next big thing in international basketball. But to me, this comes from comments from people stateside who have dealings with Australian players (Gregg Popovic, Jonathan Givony), in addition, Olgun Uluc, who is stateside and essentially a mouthpiece of NBA agents/coaches and writers on the NBL payroll (Liam Santamaria, Tom Herz) who have a vested interest in talking up the NBL generally are in this boat. While confident, experienced writers who I respect, including Boty Nagy and Paul Kennedy (former FIBA Oceania correspondent, still occasionally posts on hoops.com.au) are less bullish, though few would disagree that Australian basketball is on an upswing generally.

    What many, many people in Australia, Europe and the Americas fail to understand is that player's roles evolve through time, and their performance in one league, club, international competition or context is not necessarily indicative of what they will produce in others. So for example, some dickhead US writer disparaged the NBL seeing that Isaac Humphries was the 2017/18 NBL rookie of the year after playing 10 minutes per game at Kentucky, yet he received minutes on the worst team on the league (Sydney Kings), he was a bare bones 19 years old in his sophomore season at Kentucky and his game and body have evolved to the extent that he saw a ten day contract for Atlanta. I know about and watched Joe Ingles at Barca/Tel Aviv (maybe a dozen times in full games?), where his statistics varied from DNP/CD to bench minutes, to at times obtaining Euroleague votes. His emergence in Utah was for defence primarily as a foil to Hayward, and he was one of the very few players in the NBA who a quality coach (Snyder) told to shoot more because the offence breaks down if you pass up semi open shots and only play as a glue guy making hockey assists. His work with Zak Guthrie also tightened up his shooting release, but I don't have a problem with believing an Australian player reaches his peak around 30 years old, because our system of both junior and NBL development in initial phases means it is a longer path to the magical 10 000 hours of excellence Malcolm Gladwell waffles on about.

    Similarly, Patty Mills had to overcome career threatening injuries in the early parts of his pro career, and while obviously still streaky, he has added moving without the ball, a mid range pull up and the ability to run some pick and pop action to his game when he isn't firing from the land of plenty. His never was and never will be a floor general, but Popovic loves him for his locker room presence and he has publicly praised him for his ability to get the defence organised, his energy, getting the team into offensive sets, basic things that a lot of players at his level have no interest doing. As it is, he has probably reached his ceiling as a player, but he was outstanding in Rio and he has learned to score more efficiently over time in FIBA competition.

    Matthew Dellavedova is an elite playmaker, that Australia lacked when Shane Heal bricked us out of a medal in 2000, overall providing a good assist/turnover ratio, hockey assists, a high 30s three points shooter in addition to intangibles/hard screens etc, plays borderline dirty blah, blah, blah. These things hold true especially in FIBA ball, where he is more than a hustle player. Baynes too, has added range to his game, while being an elite per minute rebounder and rim protector (ask Stevens, Stan Van Gundy etc). Most NBA teams would want both on their team in limited roles and Dellavedova, while reaching his ceiling, simply wasn't a good fit for whatever reason at Milwaukee, and put together a nice 30+ game mini-season in limited minutes at Cleveland again this year (because management wanted to develop Sexton) before concussion ruined his season.

    Regarding the rest, I don't read anything into Sobey, Andersen's, Jawai's European stints etc, because their role is different and offences are not tailored to them for no other reason that their plays/patterns are established by late March. So to Terrorizer, Torrey Craig was far from the greatest ever import to come to Australia, yet spent three years with Cairns and Brisbane and is now a regular rotation player for the Denver Nuggets, Andersen always underwhelmed in an Australian jersey until 2016 and indeed was far from awesome in his return from Europe then, despite being healthy for his mid-thirties age. Heal was second in the Greek League in both scoring and assists in his day at Near East. I could go on with other examples, but I think I have made my point about changing roles, evolving players, systems, the effect of refereeing, having the full confidence of coaches etc....

    Some important things (both pro and con) some of which have been mentioned here before, some haven't need to be stated, as these will influence Australia's immediate and longer term prospects. Apologies if this is beating a dead horse
    1. Limited build up preparation- unlike most opponents having 7-10 games, Australia have four games only scheduled, and I can guarantee that while giving 100% effort, they will play against Canada (especially) and the US not showing their entire repetoire, as past lessons have been learned here. Unless they have some behind closed door hitouts assigned in Dognguan/Guangzhou, this is will below acceptable and these are always greater in the Olympics, where more funding is available.
    2. Xavier Cooks has been added to the 18 man squad, but Cooks and Bolden, are complete novices in Lemanis' system, while Simmons hasn't played for him since being a teenager. They will need time to slot into his system, as sadly, the Olympics is the bigger picture. I said before that Lemanis was nearly fired at NZ Breakers before winning a NBL three peat from 2011-13, and ran a rabble at Brisbane for two years, and only marginally better this year, although they made the playoffs. For this reason, Landale is a longshot to make the team, while Mathiang was not invited to camp, although he was capped in the last round of qualifiers. Agree that Broekhoff and lock down defender, but injury plagued Dante Exum will be missed in the short term.
    3. Speaking of qualifiers, Australia traditionally only had to beat NZ to qualify for any world event. While one could argue that is a tougher task than the Asian comp now, it allows for camps, continuity of program, and the ability of Basketball Australia to build media/marketing awareness of players not done since the great Soviet Union toured in 1987/1988. The camps and training are obviously tougher than the competition, but playing real qualifiers, in addition to the FIBA Asia Cup and Commonwealth Games (Asian Games in 2022) are only long term positives in every single way for Australian basketball, and jingoism aside, over many, many years, will reduce the black spots in the Australian program, like the Olympic semi final.
    4. One reason why I suspect Australian basketball is respected by in-the-know people stateside is that increasing Australian influence in NBA circles. These include assistant coaches, scouts, front office people, team doctors, physios, you name it, there was a list somewhere maybe a year ago of 20+ Australians in all the entire NBA industry, which means information is accumulated, processed, then improved on and adapted to Australian needs. This has been going on for 20+ years in Europe, but now Oceania is catching up (NZ too). There was a thread somewhere in the Euro section of this forum stating from various people about the (generally poor level) professionalism of their domestic leagues (I remember for instance, someone mentioned that Greek Clubs train in high school type gyms, Zalgiris Kaunas have a nice spa set up). Lemanis made good use of Andrew Price with his use of analytics (forget the name of his company in Auckland, he worked with him even in his NZ Breakers days), while world class physiotherapists saw Andrew Bogut recover to finally put on a green and gold uniform in Rio, when it probably wasn't possible.
    For me, I will repeat that the draw is beyond stupid for Australia, Canda, Lithuania and Senegal because even the advancing teams will likely face France and Germany in the second round, then musing ahead, is it the US or Greece in the quarters....? Given the absolute disrespect in refereeing to non-European teams, it is a big ask for Australia to medal, especially given the history of a one game black spot. From a Canadian perspective, if Herbert is to be appointed head coach, then you would hope he can jell the team quickly and not spend an excessive amount of time on cuts. I shudder what you might do with mobile bigs (Ejim, Birch, etc...)

    A final thing to mention to Terrorizer is the relative quality of leagues. I doubt that European leagues are many times better than the NBL by judging results. So, vs NBA teams in the US, NBL teams have run close a few times in two years only, have no doubt that they will eventually break through. As it is, only four Euroleague teams (CSKA *2, Fenerbache, Maccabi Tel Aviv v Toronto in 2006) have won in North America. That was also reflected in 1995 McDonalds Open, 1981 World Club Championship etc for NBL v Euro champion. There is still a way to go, so while the ACB have contributed nearly 40 players to the NBA in legitimate two way exchange, the number of NBL to NBA players is growing, and I don't think it is a monumental increase in quality over the last few years, simply Australian clubs, officials and players creating links, while streaming means the NBA can follow games and prospects here without the time of cost of always flying out personnel.

    Hope this clarified some issues to the international community. Angolan officials and players weren't happy when their 1992 Olympic win over Spain was deemed a miracle and it the word 'fluke' was never said here, but Australian basketball is on the up, expectation is not easy to deal with and their may be growing pains involved with being a consistent contender, not the least of which is I doubt Simmons' maturity.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Toruko View Post
    Russia, Germany and Argentina stronger than Turkey? You must be kidding. hahahahahahaa
    No, I'm definitely not. During the last major international tournament (it was EB 2017) Russia was fourth (but now many "experts" put it behind Nigeria and somewhere close to 20th place in their "power rankings"), Germany was eliminated in the quarterfinals, winning games against the likes of Lithuania and France, and Turkey finished fourth in their group (which included Russia, by the way) before being eliminated in the 1/8 stage. Two games won (against Belgium and UK) and four losses. And, yes, Turkish team did include both Osman and Korkmaz. Once Turkey NT will have a guard rotation like Campazzo/Lapprovitola/L. Vildoza/Redivo/Brussino, I'll start to rate it higher than I currently do.

    Other than that, who are the main candidates for your national team's roster? Wilbekin/Balbay/Sipahi (I hope there are no guys like Sinan Guler anymore?) - Korkmaz/Mahmutoglu/Koksal - Osman/Gecim - M-me Ilyasova (whose age, like that of any grand dame, remains clouded in mystery)/Turen - Erden/Yurtseven (?)/Sanli. Well, it's hardly a powerhouse's roster. There are zero extra-class players here (no, one stat-wise good season in one of the worst NBA teams doesn't make Cedi a player of this caliber) and most of these players are having big trouble with securing playing time in the games that matter. And some of them are also very inexperienced and raw.

    I mean, there are many bright Turkish prospects but somehow most of them are withering instead of blooming. I blame the way your domestic league is run and, moreover, your problems are similar to ours. Instead of developing those bright prospects powerhouses waste them on the bench and even medium-level teams build their gameplan exclusively focusing on foregin players, not giving domestic ones enough of creative freedom and trust. The talents are there (if some Deniz Kilicli was, for example, Lithuanian, he'll have a solid, if unremarkable European career and if Tolga was Lithuanian, then most probably he will be already playing for a serious club in ACB) but the spoiled system makes it very hard for them to develop in a meaningful way.

    So, in the end, which Turkish players play meaningful minutes for their clubs (in the games that matter)? Well, even Balbay can't really crack Efes's rotation. Efes has zero such players, Melih is borderline rotation player in Fener, Tofas has Baris Ermis (who is 34 y.o.) and, to some extent, Yigit Arslan, GS has Koksal (talented Ege Arar is warming the bench), Besiktas has only Kenan and 36 y.o. Veyseloglu (a mediocre player by any count) and so on. Even Russia, which suffers from similar problems (magnified by the fact that we have no domestic league and options to play on the highest level are severely limited for local players), has a more sizeable number of domestic guys who play some role for the powerhouse teams: Kurbanov for CSKA, Ponkrashov and Kolesnikov for UNICS, Shved, Zubkov and even Monya for Khimki, Kulagin, Fridzon and Khvostov for Loko, Karasyov, Voronov, Trushkin, even Valiev for Zenit. Of these Shved, Kulagin and Karasyov are leaders of their respective teams and, most probably, you'll find it hard to name a local leader for any BSL team.

    Roofman, a truly great post! Actually, it may sound weird (since you are "debating" with me ), but I largely agree with you on most matters. Yet there are some points of (somewhat slight) disagreement... and that concerns largely three things - 1) "true quality" of NBL (not the most knowledgeable here, for sure, but still I have my doubts how much it progressed), 2) the change in the level of talent of Aussie bball for the last 10-15 years (there were a lot of worthy players in the late 00s - early 10s, most of them just prefered to play in Europe instead of trying to catch up with that "NBA train" and being ok with playing garbage time for multiple seasons in the process); 3) assessment of some particular players. I'll try to add my opinion on these questions in a not so distant future

    One last thing to add: the fact which makes Australia and Canada similar is an extremely high occurence of their brightest prospects failing to live up to the expectations. I mean, many Australian players impress in the youth categories, some of them even get drafted really high but examples of Dante Exum and Thon Maker seem to be more of a rule than the one of Ben Simmons. And where are the guys like Hugh Greenwood, Tony Drmic, Dejan Vasiljevic? I remember them as players with a very big upside but somehow we don't see them knocking on the national team's locker room door.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Srle View Post
    Giannis was horrible so far in FIBA competition , his lack of shooting is even more evident in those tournament , he's been quite exposed there. Canada, Australia and France in front of Serbia,you got to be kidding.
    Giannis last played in a FIBA competition back at 2016, he's basically in a whole another level 3 years later.
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    No, I'm definitely not. During the last major international tournament (it was EB 2017) Russia was fourth (but now many "experts" put it behind Nigeria and somewhere close to 20th place in their "power rankings"), Germany was eliminated in the quarterfinals, winning games against the likes of Lithuania and France, and Turkey finished fourth in their group (which included Russia, by the way) before being eliminated in the 1/8 stage. Two games won (against Belgium and UK) and four losses. And, yes, Turkish team did include both Osman and Korkmaz. Once Turkey NT will have a guard rotation like Campazzo/Lapprovitola/L. Vildoza/Redivo/Brussino, I'll start to rate it higher than I currently do.
    Well I expected such an argumentation. I think taking Eurobasket 2017 for evaluation the current powerlevels of the teams will give you a wrong idea. Turkey had lost almost all Bigs before that tournement. Asik was out because of a desease called "chrom", Enes Kanter because of political issues, Oguz Savas hadnt played for 2 years, Yurtseven was far too young and our only Big Semih Erden hadnt played for 8 month basketball because of a shoulder injury, Ersan Ilyasova had just a prearrangement with the Hawks and wouldnt have got a contract in case of an injury, so he couldnt come either . In addition to that Bobby Dixon got also injured shortly before the tournament started. Turkey played practically with a U20 team. The problem was and partly is that turkey neglected to raise prospect for an entire decade. So a 21 year old Sipahi, Cedi and a 19 year old Furkan Korkmaz played.

    Russia has surely valuable Bigs such as Vorontsevich, Kurbanov, Mozgov, even though he never plays in the nba but russia has just Shved in the short rotation, an old Friedzon not even Khvostov wont be available this time. Russia can never be stronger than a Wilbekin, a 2 year older Cedi, Furkan, Ersan and probably a Yurtseven.

    Turkey has played couple month ago against Germany in Hamburg in the VTG supercup and won against a respectable roster 100:79 without breaking a sweat. Germany surely is a competitive team but still not strong enough to beat turkey.

    Other than that, who are the main candidates for your national team's roster? Wilbekin/Balbay/Sipahi (I hope there are no guys like Sinan Guler anymore?) - Korkmaz/Mahmutoglu/Koksal - Osman/Gecim - M-me Ilyasova (whose age, like that of any grand dame, remains clouded in mystery)/Turen - Erden/Yurtseven (?)/Sanli. Well, it's hardly a powerhouse's roster. There are zero extra-class players here (no, one stat-wise good season in one of the worst NBA teams doesn't make Cedi a player of this caliber) and most of these players are having big trouble with securing playing time in the games that matter. And some of them are also very inexperienced and raw.
    Balbay ÷zmizrak
    Wilbekin Mahmutoglu
    Osman Furkan Korkmaz
    Ilyasova Tolga Gecim
    Semih Yurtseven

    will be most likely the roster and I cant really see what should be so frightening playing against vildoza or campazzo. Turkey has a big rotation problem but especially the starting five can keep up with the most. And calling Ilyasova old when the youngest player in the russian roster is 30 is quite funny

    I mean, there are many bright Turkish prospects but somehow most of them are withering instead of blooming. I blame the way your domestic league is run and, moreover, your problems are similar to ours. Instead of developing those bright prospects powerhouses waste them on the bench and even medium-level teams build their gameplan exclusively focusing on foregin players, not giving domestic ones enough of creative freedom and trust. The talents are there (if some Deniz Kilicli was, for example, Lithuanian, he'll have a solid, if unremarkable European career and if Tolga was Lithuanian, then most probably he will be already playing for a serious club in ACB) but the spoiled system makes it very hard for them to develop in a meaningful way.
    I assume you are russian. Well the problems look similar indeed but its actually different. Turkey has good prospects unlike russia. I always follow youth tournements and there are hardly russian prospects and turkey is among the best 5 youth building countries in Europe. The turkish problem was and partly is they cant develop player after a certain age. The big teams like efes and Fenerbahce pay too much for the young guys and they end up on the bench for several years without playing and also the other teams had remarkable bugdets. Thats the reason why turkey lost most of its talent from the golden generation of 95-97 generation.

    The situation now is different. The TBF created therefor a Youth league in order to prepare the young guys better for the professional basketball life and more and more domestic player are integrated in the rosters with significant responsibilities.

    So, in the end, which Turkish players play meaningful minutes for their clubs (in the games that matter)? Well, even Balbay can't really crack Efes's rotation. Efes has zero such players, Melih is borderline rotation player in Fener, Tofas has Baris Ermis (who is 34 y.o.) and, to some extent, Yigit Arslan, GS has Koksal (talented Ege Arar is warming the bench), Besiktas has only Kenan and 36 y.o. Veyseloglu (a mediocre player by any count) and so on. Even Russia, which suffers from similar problems (magnified by the fact that we have no domestic league and options to play on the highest level are severely limited for local players), has a more sizeable number of domestic guys who play some role for the powerhouse teams: Kurbanov for CSKA, Ponkrashov and Kolesnikov for UNICS, Shved, Zubkov and even Monya for Khimki, Kulagin, Fridzon and Khvostov for Loko, Karasyov, Voronov, Trushkin, even Valiev for Zenit. Of these Shved, Kulagin and Karasyov are leaders of their respective teams and, most probably, you'll find it hard to name a local leader for any BSL team.
    hahahaha great that shows you have a shallow knowledge about the situation of turkish basketball. If you just look at Euroleague it might seem that way but the player that you mentioned are playing in the turkish superleague because there may just 5 foreigners on the roster of the teams in the turkish league. I agree with you about the experience point but except Shved no guy that you mention on the russian side a big number. They cant keep up with an Osman, Furkan Korkmaz, Ilyasova or let alone Wilbekin.

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    Ah, I can't restrain myself form adding one last thing about "then and now" (part II of my "three complaints")... despite the fact that it's early morning here and I have to prepare examination program for my univeristy students

    Let's take a closer look at the year 2011, for example. There was a start of Canadian players going to Europe en masse but there was a similar, maybe, even more significant "Australian wave". More experienced guys like an old favourite of mine Matt Nielsen, who was still extremely useful for the teams he played (and extremely unlikeable by any team he played against), and David Andersen (definitely not a favourite of mine but still...) ready to move back to Europe (to Siena where he had a good season in 2011-12 and Siena was a EL play-offs team back then) were accompanied by still young Brad Newley with multiple seasons of successful EC/EL experience, Aleks Maric (struggling in Pao but memories of his All-Euroleague selection season in Beograd were still fresh), AJ Ogilvy getting signed by up-and-coming Valencia after briliant season in Turkey, Jingles trying to crack rotation in Barca, Nathan Jawai making his presence felt at Partizan (back then I thought that he would dominate in Europe for years to come but sadly only Boriska Diaw can play on the high level keeping that kind of diet), David Barlow playing solid in ACB, Baynes a season before the best basketball he ever played (it was in Ljubljana out of all places). And future all-NBL selection Daniel Kickert wasn't even getting a real notice playing somewhere in Poland

    But nowadays Canada can field a whole team out of its Europe-based players (and it will be a very, very solid team, with some luck a potential medal contender in a tournament like WC) while Australia chooses only Landale and Motum among the players who are in Europe full-time. I know that the quality of domestic leagues in Canada and in Australia is incomparable and actually NBL (the Australian one) is one of the best leagues outside of Europe (obviously dismissing NBA from the picture - but I don't even view it as a "true" basketball league, it's a weird, typically American commercial enterprise which has more in common with a glossy musical than with a professional sports league). But for me such a scarity of "European Australians" would be a worrying sign, especially since Aussies still try to make a name for themselves in Europe from time to time. But it turns out that they are much less successful with that than they were some eight years ago.
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    Quote Originally Posted by R1ou View Post
    Giannis last played in a FIBA competition back at 2016, he's basically in a whole another level 3 years later.
    The problems are the same. The Fiba court is smaller and the teams will defend unlike in the nba. If you give giannis enough space he will jump above your head and dunk but if you dont let him speed up he is a horrible mid ranger. Giannis will of course have and impact but in order to use the advantages of Giannis you must have shooter around him but thats the problem of greece. Its probably the worst shooting team or lets say one of the in the tournament. With a non shooter like calathes you can double giannis at any time without having any fears from outside. Sloukas is just consistent in mid range or from the top and in addition there is no consistent shooter maybe except dorsey.

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    Terrorizer, you made me laugh when you compared the NBA to a Broadway musical. I always compared it to the WWE- some years before Jayson Williams made that comparison in Loose Balls!

    The major reason there are relatively few Australians in Europe atm is that the NBL is now much better managed over the last five years or so under Larry Kestleman, in what is effectively a takeover strategy. Previously only my Perth Wildcats were profitable, with the community owned Cairns Taipans breaking even and NZ Breakers on good ground generally, but then NZ owners Paul and Liz Blackwell tipping in $1NZ million for the Breakers junior academy, run along the lines of the AIS College of Excellence or a major European set up. Now, Sydney and NZ have big time owners and Adelaide have upgraded to a 10 000 or so tennis arena, leaving only the league run/Lemanis coached Brisbane Bullets playing out of a small (3 500 or so) stadium while they seek a longer term solution with a magnate of some sort. Consequently, the majority of those Australian players mentioned above are still active in the NBL- Newley, Barlow, Jawai, Ogilvy, Kickert, with the short season, upgraded pay structure and ability to freelance post NBL season in Europe, Puerto Rico or Asia topping up their earnings. All except Ogilvy are still decent, simply meaning the Australian talent has taken a big leap forward and these players are no longer considered for (full) national team selection.

    You mentioned Matty Nielsen and Aleks Maric. Nielsen is very highly regarded for his tactical brain worlwide, having served an internship at San Antonio after hanging up his boots in 2014/15. He returned there periodically, even coaching their summer league team. He was a Perth assistant, recently leaving while seeking a position somewhere in the US. The development in Australian coaching ranks sometimes gets ignored, but considering we have Nielsen, CJ Bruton, Shawn Dennis, out of contract/out of a job Rob Beveridge not employed in Australia, but having extensive coaching/playing experience overseas, that can only be a positive.

    As for Maric, probably no other player anywhere comes close to polarising opinion among (true) fans because he was the ultimate system player, good in pick and roll situations, good finisher from dump offs, good rebounder........ Hopeless on the block or if the first option of a team. Serbia actually recruited him after his 2010 season at Partizan then he proceeded to be one of the most maligned Australian players ever under Brett Brown (on forums anyway). I saw a very limited amount of him during this time, so I think there was truth both ways in the coach good/player bad or player bad/coach good polemic, although not everything could be ran to Alek's strengths.

    Following the threads above specifically about Turkish and Russian basketball, much debate centres of how best to develop talent, especially good, but not NBA ready talent, as the bigger Euro clubs rarely have a rotation player under 23 or 24. Relating that to the Australian situation, although not familiar with the full circumstances of the signing, Landale would have been able to demand a reasonable sum out of college as a 211 cm WCC player of the year. I doubt hometown Melbourne United would have had say, $150K available for him with salary cap constraints, so Europe was the only real option, and I was happy do see him sign with Partizan for their proud record in development.

    Cooks, as the son of now Wollongong assistant coach Eric Cooks, might have wanted to play for his home club in the same way Emmett Naar also did. I imagine even a second tier German club could offer substantially more than them.

    Regarding young talent coming through, I have followed Dejan Vasiljevic somewhat since he has been at University of Miami. He is a decent prospect, a shooter with some ability to create his own shot, and while possessing some playmaking skills, in the old days would have been considered a shooting guard in a point guard's body. Bogut rates him highly, will be interesting to see if he can crack the NBA after his senior year at Miami, I am certain that he will get a long look in future times, maybe when 27-30, but unless they go deep in the NCAA tournament and he wows NBA scouts/camps, won't be an immediate NBA player (Jack White and Noi at Texas Christian are probably similar, don't know enough about these guys because I haven't seen them in full games).

    Anthony Drmic has done decent work in two years at Adelaide, I feel that after overcoming nerve damage in his feet he may be able to translate his Boise State form to the NBL. If you didn't know, Greenwood chose an unusual career path after finishing at New Mexico four years ago. He signed with Perth, wanted to be an Olympian and then changed sports - to become a professional Australian rules footballer with the Adelaide Crows. This is becoming part of a trend, with Tom Wilson and 2016 national under 17s representative Patrick Bines also following that path.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Toruko View Post
    I assume you are russian. Well the problems look similar indeed but its actually different. Turkey has good prospects unlike russia. I always follow youth tournements and there are hardly russian prospects and turkey is among the best 5 youth building countries in Europe.
    All the other stuff I (hopefully) answer later but here I'll make just one note. I also follow youth tournaments and while Turkey's rise there in the last 5 years or so is certainly impressive (though most of your prospects are too hyped up for no obvious reasons), I think that we should also look at a bigger picture in a longer run. While Russia doesn't produce as much good prospects as it was once the case and certainly we're lagging (far) behind European leaders (i.e. France, Serbia and Spain), characterizing Russia as a country "with hardly any propsects" is still a big stretch.

    So if we consider a time period between 2004 (annual EuroBaskets for youth categories started and, well, the guys who played U16 then are still only 30 y.o.) and the year 2013 (Russian basketball federation disintegrated in a bloody mess which had grave consequences for any domestic national team, especially youth ones, all of which were left alone and for some time functioned in a 'thin air', in a manner typical for some Malawi NT), then Russia NT results are the following:

    U-20: 6 finishes in Top 8, 4 finishes in Top 4, 1 medal, gold in domestic 2005 tournament which I remember oh so well.

    U-18: 7 finishes in Top 8, 2 finishes in Top 4 and one medal - silver in 2010.

    U-16: 7 finishes in Top 8, 2 finishes in Top 4, both of them medal ones - silvers in 2004 and 2006.

    Yes, Turkey has better stats in the same period (actually worse for U-20 but slightly better for U-18 and significantly better for U-16), but for the country with "hardly any prospects" it's somewhat surprising since, most probably, you will characterize all the countries with clearly better statline - Spain, Serbia, France, Lithuania and Turkey (Greece and Croatia have more medal finishes but also suffer from instability of their results while Italy is similar to Russia... all the others are far behind) - as the ones who "have the best European projects". So result-wise immediately after the countries "with top projects" there goes a country of talentless, sloppy hacks, a country with "hardly any projects". Weird stuff...

    Yet the other question is how these prospects are developed. One telling example you most probably haven't heard about is Serdar Annaev. Back in the day he got good press from the likes of Jonathan Givony and it looked like soon we'll have a very solid pass-first PG for the NT. Last season he had 6.4 ppg + 3.8 apg playing for Russian second-tier league's mid-level team. He was born in 1994. That's how we waste our prospects.

    P.S. I've just checked the ratings of 2000 - 2002 born prospects at eurospects.com. In the rankings there are three Russian guys (Savkov is 19th among the 2002 YOB, Zakharov is 18th among 2001 YOB and Mikhailovskiy is 10th among 2000 YOB) and four Turks (Gorener is 12th, Sengun is 16th and David Mutaf is 25th among 2002 YOB while Gultekin is 24th among 2000 YOB). Not that much of a difference. Especially having in mind that France has 4 + 6 + 3, Serbia 6 + 5 + 1, Spain 2 + 1 + 4, Croatia 1 + 1 + 4, Lithuania 2 + 2 + 2 and even Germany 3 + 2 + 3 players in the same 2000, 2001 and 2002 rankings. But all these ratings are hardly an adequate projection even of players potential, not to talk about the level they will achieve in the future.

    P.P.S.

    Quote Originally Posted by Toruko View Post
    hahahaha great that shows you have a shallow knowledge about the situation of turkish basketball.
    Chances are extremely high that I watched many times more BSL games than you have watched VTB's ones but still try to think about "why does such a discrepancy takes place". Or just check Semyon Antonov's stats in VTB league and in JordiLeague (and we have no foreign/domestic players limits in VTB League). "True" Efes rotation is the one they use against the best opposition, not against some Buyukcekmece.
    Last edited by Levenspiel; 05-31-2019 at 08:06 AM. Reason: quote box fixed
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    All the other stuff I (hopefully) answer later but here I'll make just one note. I also follow youth tournaments and while Turkey's rise there in the last 5 years or so is certainly impressive (though most of your prospects are too hyped up for no obvious reasons), I think that we should also look at a bigger picture in a longer run. While Russia doesn't produce as much good prospects as it was once the case and certainly we're lagging (far) behind European leaders (i.e. France, Serbia and Spain), characterizing Russia as a country "with hardly any propsects" is still a big stretch.
    Thats a different story. After the generation of Kulagin and Vorontsevich there was nothing what Russia produced significantly. I was talking about the situation now and even this year turkey is a medal candidate for all youth tournements, Russia should be in division B in one U20 when i am not mistaken. It wont bring you any information to count the medals from 15 years ago. It shows only that Basketball lost blood in that time.

    P.S. I've just checked the ratings of 2000 - 2002 born prospects at eurospects.com. In the rankings there are three Russian guys (Savkov is 19th among the 2002 YOB, Zakharov is 18th among 2001 YOB and Mikhailovskiy is 10th among 2000 YOB) and four Turks (Gorener is 12th, Sengun is 16th and David Mutaf is 25th among 2002 YOB while Gultekin is 24th among 2000 YOB). Not that much of a difference. Especially having in mind that France has 4 + 6 + 3, Serbia 6 + 5 + 1, Spain 2 + 1 + 4, Croatia 1 + 1 + 4, Lithuania 2 + 2 + 2 and even Germany 3 + 2 + 3 players in the same 2000, 2001 and 2002 rankings. But all these ratings are hardly an adequate projection even of players potential, not to talk about the level they will achieve in the future.
    Well the difference is that Turkey achieves always good results in the youth tournements. In the last U20 (5th), U17 WC (fifth), U16(3th) after having beaten france by 30. I guess Russia has just a good 2001 generation but considering the developments of the last 5 years its just fluke.

    Germany has a remarkable youth development in the last years thats true. I expect much from Bonga, Hartenstein, Moritz Wagner in the following years but Germany had always good Bigs and also the guys who are mentioned in eurospects are mostly Bigs like Ariel Hukporti etc. Just Len Schoorman of the frankfurt skyliners is a mentionable short. Unfortunately he didnt play in the U16 youth tournament last time so i couldnt follow his developments properly. Ariel Hukporti had a really bad U16 Tournament btw.

    And I was not talking about Serbia, LTU or other countries anyway. We are just talking about Russia, Germany and Argentina.

    Chances are extremely high that I watched many times more BSL games than you have watched VTB's ones but still try to think about "why does such a discrepancy takes place". Or just check Semyon Antonov's stats in VTB league and in JordiLeague (and we have no foreign/domestic players limits in VTB League). "True" Efes rotation is the one they use against the best opposition, not against some Buyukcekmece.
    I watch enough Eurocup, champions league, euro league games to have a good view of all players that are mentionable. Most of Russian player are Eurocup Level or some who have roles on the CSKA roster like Kurbanov are just Bigs with almost no ball-handling skills. As I said before Russia doesnt stand a chance against the current turkish roster but Russia had luck to be "elected" in group B in the wc so quarterfinals are achievable now.

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