It's been a long frustrating road but it's almost done. Last shot to get into the World Cup.
Because I have entirely too much time on my hands, here's a cheat sheet of possible ways each team left alive gets in. Note this is probably not every possible scenario and in the case of Asia's confusing rules regarding China's finish, may not even be correct
Africa
2 Spots remaining
3 Games to play
4 Teams left alive.
Senegal (Win a game or CAF loses a game)
Cameron (Needs either CAF and IC to lose or for neither to match their PD)
Central African Republic (Win out by a combined 130 pts)
Ivory Coast (Win out by a combined 66 pts AND CAF loses a game)
Americas
3 Spots Remaining
2 Games to play
4 Teams left Alive
Brazil (win a game OR Lose both AND DR loses a game and beats Brazil by less than 18)
Dominican Republic (Win both games OR win a game and finish with higher PD than Puerto Rico or Uruguay OR lose twice and Uruguay or Puerto Rico loses twice and finishes with lower PD)
Uruguay (win both games OR lose first game AND beat Puerto Rico OR win first game AND lose to PR by 1 pt)
Puerto Rico (Win both games OR lose first game and beat Uruguay by 2+ pts OR lose both games AND Dominican Republic loses both games AND beat DR on PD)
Asia
4 Spots Remaining
2 games to play
6 teams still alive
Iran (Win a game OR Lose both and Philippines loses a game OR lose both finish with higher PD than Group E 4th place)
Japan (Win both OR Win 1 and Philippines loses a game OR Lose both Group E 4th has 2 loses and a worse PD)
Philippines (Win both and Japan loses 1 OR Win both and 4th in Group E has lower PD OR win 1 AND group E 4th finishes 6-6 with worse PD)
Kazakhstan (Win both and Group E 4TH has 6 loses and a worse PD OR Group E 4TH has seven loses OR Beat Philippines lose other game and Jordan loses twice and finishes with worse PD)
Lebanon (Win Both OR Win one and Jordan loses a game OR lose both and Jordan loses both)
Jordan (Win both and Lebanon loses both OR Win both and have a higher PD than F 4th OR Lose both and Philippines lose both and Kazakhstan lose 1 and finish with the higher PD)
Europe
Group I
1 Spot Remaining
3 Teams still alive
2 Games to Play
Montenegro (Win both games OR beat Latvia and lose to Ukraine by less than 6 points OR lose to Latvia by less than 9 and beat Ukraine)
Latvia (Win both games OR beat Montenegro by more than 9 points)
Ukraine (Win both games AND beat Montengro by 7+ points AND Latvia loses both games)
Group J
2 spots remaining
4 teams still alive
2 games to play
Italy (Win a game OR lose both but only lose to Hungary by 5 or less)
Poland (Win a game OR lose both AND Hungary loses a game AND lose by less than 5 points to Croatia)
Hungary (Win both and Poland loses both)
Croatia (Win both games AND Poland loses both AND beat Poland by more than 5 points AND beat Hungary by more than 5)
Group K
1 spot remaining
2 teams still alive
2 games to play
Russia (Defeat Finland OR beat Bulgaria and Finland loses to France OR lose both games but Finland loses to France AND Russia loses to Finland by less than 2)
Finland (win both games and beat Russia by more than 2 points OR lose to France AND Russia loses to Bulgaria AND defeat Russia by two points.)
Group L
1 Spot remaining
3 teams still alive
2 games to play
Serbia (Win a game OR Georgia and Israel both lose a game)
Georgia (Win both games AND Serbia loses both games)
Israel (Win both games AND Serbia doesn’t win a game)
Because I have entirely too much time on my hands, here's a cheat sheet of possible ways each team left alive gets in. Note this is probably not every possible scenario and in the case of Asia's confusing rules regarding China's finish, may not even be correct
Africa
2 Spots remaining
3 Games to play
4 Teams left alive.
Senegal (Win a game or CAF loses a game)
Cameron (Needs either CAF and IC to lose or for neither to match their PD)
Central African Republic (Win out by a combined 130 pts)
Ivory Coast (Win out by a combined 66 pts AND CAF loses a game)
Americas
3 Spots Remaining
2 Games to play
4 Teams left Alive
Brazil (win a game OR Lose both AND DR loses a game and beats Brazil by less than 18)
Dominican Republic (Win both games OR win a game and finish with higher PD than Puerto Rico or Uruguay OR lose twice and Uruguay or Puerto Rico loses twice and finishes with lower PD)
Uruguay (win both games OR lose first game AND beat Puerto Rico OR win first game AND lose to PR by 1 pt)
Puerto Rico (Win both games OR lose first game and beat Uruguay by 2+ pts OR lose both games AND Dominican Republic loses both games AND beat DR on PD)
Asia
4 Spots Remaining
2 games to play
6 teams still alive
Iran (Win a game OR Lose both and Philippines loses a game OR lose both finish with higher PD than Group E 4th place)
Japan (Win both OR Win 1 and Philippines loses a game OR Lose both Group E 4th has 2 loses and a worse PD)
Philippines (Win both and Japan loses 1 OR Win both and 4th in Group E has lower PD OR win 1 AND group E 4th finishes 6-6 with worse PD)
Kazakhstan (Win both and Group E 4TH has 6 loses and a worse PD OR Group E 4TH has seven loses OR Beat Philippines lose other game and Jordan loses twice and finishes with worse PD)
Lebanon (Win Both OR Win one and Jordan loses a game OR lose both and Jordan loses both)
Jordan (Win both and Lebanon loses both OR Win both and have a higher PD than F 4th OR Lose both and Philippines lose both and Kazakhstan lose 1 and finish with the higher PD)
Europe
Group I
1 Spot Remaining
3 Teams still alive
2 Games to Play
Montenegro (Win both games OR beat Latvia and lose to Ukraine by less than 6 points OR lose to Latvia by less than 9 and beat Ukraine)
Latvia (Win both games OR beat Montenegro by more than 9 points)
Ukraine (Win both games AND beat Montengro by 7+ points AND Latvia loses both games)
Group J
2 spots remaining
4 teams still alive
2 games to play
Italy (Win a game OR lose both but only lose to Hungary by 5 or less)
Poland (Win a game OR lose both AND Hungary loses a game AND lose by less than 5 points to Croatia)
Hungary (Win both and Poland loses both)
Croatia (Win both games AND Poland loses both AND beat Poland by more than 5 points AND beat Hungary by more than 5)
Group K
1 spot remaining
2 teams still alive
2 games to play
Russia (Defeat Finland OR beat Bulgaria and Finland loses to France OR lose both games but Finland loses to France AND Russia loses to Finland by less than 2)
Finland (win both games and beat Russia by more than 2 points OR lose to France AND Russia loses to Bulgaria AND defeat Russia by two points.)
Group L
1 Spot remaining
3 teams still alive
2 games to play
Serbia (Win a game OR Georgia and Israel both lose a game)
Georgia (Win both games AND Serbia loses both games)
Israel (Win both games AND Serbia doesn’t win a game)
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