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Thread: Final Window

  1. #1
    Senior Member Dtown's Avatar
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    Default Final Window

    It's been a long frustrating road but it's almost done. Last shot to get into the World Cup.

    Because I have entirely too much time on my hands, here's a cheat sheet of possible ways each team left alive gets in. Note this is probably not every possible scenario and in the case of Asia's confusing rules regarding China's finish, may not even be correct

    Africa
    2 Spots remaining
    3 Games to play
    4 Teams left alive.
    Senegal (Win a game or CAF loses a game)
    Cameron (Needs either CAF and IC to lose or for neither to match their PD)
    Central African Republic (Win out by a combined 130 pts)
    Ivory Coast (Win out by a combined 66 pts AND CAF loses a game)

    Americas
    3 Spots Remaining
    2 Games to play
    4 Teams left Alive
    Brazil (win a game OR Lose both AND DR loses a game and beats Brazil by less than 18)
    Dominican Republic (Win both games OR win a game and finish with higher PD than Puerto Rico or Uruguay OR lose twice and Uruguay or Puerto Rico loses twice and finishes with lower PD)
    Uruguay (win both games OR lose first game AND beat Puerto Rico OR win first game AND lose to PR by 1 pt)
    Puerto Rico (Win both games OR lose first game and beat Uruguay by 2+ pts OR lose both games AND Dominican Republic loses both games AND beat DR on PD)

    Asia
    4 Spots Remaining
    2 games to play
    6 teams still alive
    Iran (Win a game OR Lose both and Philippines loses a game OR lose both finish with higher PD than Group E 4th place)
    Japan (Win both OR Win 1 and Philippines loses a game OR Lose both Group E 4th has 2 loses and a worse PD)
    Philippines (Win both and Japan loses 1 OR Win both and 4th in Group E has lower PD OR win 1 AND group E 4th finishes 6-6 with worse PD)
    Kazakhstan (Win both and Group E 4TH has 6 loses and a worse PD OR Group E 4TH has seven loses OR Beat Philippines lose other game and Jordan loses twice and finishes with worse PD)
    Lebanon (Win Both OR Win one and Jordan loses a game OR lose both and Jordan loses both)
    Jordan (Win both and Lebanon loses both OR Win both and have a higher PD than F 4th OR Lose both and Philippines lose both and Kazakhstan lose 1 and finish with the higher PD)

    Europe

    Group I
    1 Spot Remaining
    3 Teams still alive
    2 Games to Play
    Montenegro (Win both games OR beat Latvia and lose to Ukraine by less than 6 points OR lose to Latvia by less than 9 and beat Ukraine)
    Latvia (Win both games OR beat Montenegro by more than 9 points)
    Ukraine (Win both games AND beat Montengro by 7+ points AND Latvia loses both games)

    Group J
    2 spots remaining
    4 teams still alive
    2 games to play
    Italy (Win a game OR lose both but only lose to Hungary by 5 or less)
    Poland (Win a game OR lose both AND Hungary loses a game AND lose by less than 5 points to Croatia)
    Hungary (Win both and Poland loses both)
    Croatia (Win both games AND Poland loses both AND beat Poland by more than 5 points AND beat Hungary by more than 5)

    Group K
    1 spot remaining
    2 teams still alive
    2 games to play
    Russia (Defeat Finland OR beat Bulgaria and Finland loses to France OR lose both games but Finland loses to France AND Russia loses to Finland by less than 2)
    Finland (win both games and beat Russia by more than 2 points OR lose to France AND Russia loses to Bulgaria AND defeat Russia by two points.)

    Group L
    1 Spot remaining
    3 teams still alive
    2 games to play
    Serbia (Win a game OR Georgia and Israel both lose a game)
    Georgia (Win both games AND Serbia loses both games)
    Israel (Win both games AND Serbia doesn’t win a game)
    Last edited by Dtown; 02-17-2019 at 02:05 AM.
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  2. #2
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    So out of 32 teams in the tournament there will be more teams from Asia/Oceania/Africa than Europe ?
    That might be the dumbest thing I’ve ever heard. European participants don’t even make up 40% of the teams.
    This whole thing is moronic and seriously diminishes the quality of the tournament.

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    Senior Member Dtown's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by usagre View Post
    So out of 32 teams in the tournament there will be more teams from Asia/Oceania/Africa than Europe ?
    That might be the dumbest thing I’ve ever heard. European participants don’t even make up 40% of the teams.
    This whole thing is moronic and seriously diminishes the quality of the tournament.
    Not really fair to lump Oceania with Africa/Asia. I'd take Australia over half the teams that qualified from Europe.

    What do you think a fair number of European teams would be, while of course keeping this an actual World Cup?
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dtown View Post
    Not really fair to lump Oceania with Africa/Asia. I'd take Australia over half the teams that qualified from Europe.

    What do you think a fair number of European teams would be, while of course keeping this an actual World Cup?
    That’s fine I agree. Take out New Zealand and Australia. 11 teams including the host from Africa and Asia is absurd.
    8 maximum including host is the way I would go. 25% of the field sounds about right. Not more than a third which it is now.

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    If you’re gonna have 32 teams which is way too many and watering down the tournament in my opinion, something like this looks more reasonable.

    Europe. 15
    Asia/Africa. 8
    Americas. 7
    Oceania. 2

    If you want to tie in 2nd place Oceania with Asia and create a playoff then I would eliminate another Asian or African team
    and just increase European teams from 15-16.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by usagre View Post
    If you’re gonna have 32 teams which is way too many and watering down the tournament in my opinion, something like this looks more reasonable.

    Europe. 15
    Asia/Africa. 8
    Americas. 7
    Oceania. 2

    If you want to tie in 2nd place Oceania with Asia and create a playoff then I would eliminate another Asian or African team
    and just increase European teams from 15-16.
    I'm actually fine with 32 as it actually means teams play fewer group games, and thus fewer meaningless ones. It also limits any question of tanking games that we've seen in previous tournaments.

    Fair play on your listed numbers, though I still prefer Oceania compete with Asia directly. While they're a unquestionably cut above the competition, I'd still rather they played their way in.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dtown View Post
    I'm actually fine with 32 as it actually means teams play fewer group games, and thus fewer meaningless ones.
    That’s a good point although it creates the dreaded three teams tied at 2-1 scenario. I hate that. It means a good team is eliminated right off the bat and opens the door for possible point margin shenanigans.

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    Quote Originally Posted by usagre View Post
    That’s a good point although it creates the dreaded three teams tied at 2-1 scenario. I hate that. It means a good team is eliminated right off the bat and opens the door for possible point margin shenanigans.
    Hopefully they'll mimic FIFA on this and have games start at the exact same time to prevent that. Though this is FIBA so they'll probably screw it up somehow.
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    I will say I do like how this tournament along with a wild card tournament serves as the sole Olympic qualifying path.
    The classification games in the old days were a complete waste of time but now they have a lot of juice. Europe will always have the opportunity to send 6 teams to the Olympics no matter what. And 7 if they are hosting. That’s fair. 50% European representation in an international tournament is a good guide of fair composition in my opinion.

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