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Thread: The dawn of USA NT crisis?

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    Default The dawn of USA NT crisis?

    Here's the thing. USA doesn't have a single true superstar under 25 years old. The last true superstar is Anthony Davis is 25yo. Consider this. Sure USA has huge market and they will load their teams anyway, but couldn't they end up in the situation after 5 years when they will be lacking those super class players who "closes" those intense FIBA games.

    Or players like Booker, Donovan Mitchell, Tatum, Beal, Ball are next superstars? Basically I don't see a true superstar in the horizon as of yet. Someone in NCAA?
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    Senior Member Dtown's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Straight forward View Post
    Here's the thing. USA doesn't have a single true superstar under 25 years old. The last true superstar is Anthony Davis is 25yo. Consider this. Sure USA has huge market and they will load their teams anyway, but couldn't they end up in the situation after 5 years when they will be lacking those super class players who "closes" those intense FIBA games.

    Or players like Booker, Donovan Mitchell, Tatum, Beal, Ball are next superstars? Basically I don't see a true superstar in the horizon as of yet. Someone in NCAA?
    Tatum and Donovan Mitchell showed a lot of potential last year, and Zion Williamson is already looking like he has mega star potential.

    It's less US development I'm worried about so much as Canadian potential in the future. Guys like RJ Barrett and Iggy Brazdeikis seem to becoming more commonplace in the ncaa.
    Last edited by Dtown; 12-01-2018 at 05:05 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dtown View Post
    Tatum and Donovan Mitchell showed a lot of potential last year, and Zion Williamson is already looking like he has mega star potential.
    I don't know about Williamson, but first 2 seems to be far from Wade, Lebron, Durrant kind of superstar branch, IMO. I still see an obvious lack of true superstars like you could clearly see they will form the face of NBA.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dtown View Post
    It's less US development I'm be worried about so much as Canadian potential in the future. Guys like RJ Barrett and Iggy Brazdeikis seem to becoming more commonplace in the ncaa.
    Brazdeikis? Another Canadian Lithuanian? How many of those will irritate Lithuania fans? Yeah, Canada will be interesting in upcoming 10 years.
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    Senior Member Dtown's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Straight forward View Post
    I don't know about Williamson, but first 2 seems to be far from Wade, Lebron, Durrant kind of superstar branch, IMO. I still see an obvious lack of true superstars like you could clearly see they will form the face of NBA.
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    Brazdeikis? Another Canadian Lithuanian? How many of those will irritate Lithuania fans? Yeah, Canada will be interesting in upcoming 10 years.
    It's funny because he's going to the University of Michigan just like Stauskas.
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    I don't think it's any secret that there was an unusually talented generation born between about 1984 and 1988, and that group is starting to age out of national team play. OTOH we ought to be able to put out teams at least as talented as the 2014 WC team, and they won the championship quite comfortably. Big question is whether Popovich (and his successor) will be as good a fit as K was.
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    Senior Member Dtown's Avatar
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    Really one thing that hasn't been mentioned is will the desire to play for Team USA remain? Lebron set the standard way back in 2004, he made competing for the US cool. The question is will that commitment continue going forward.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dtown View Post
    Really one thing that hasn't been mentioned is will the desire to play for Team USA remain? Lebron set the standard way back in 2004, he made competing for the US cool. The question is will that commitment continue going forward.
    My opinion it is a slow decline until the USA embarrassingly loses a major competition again and there is another call to arms / rally the troops moment. Probably a continuous cycle to be honest. You can only dominate for so long until you get complacent.
    I think it is already on an obvious decline with less and less participation.


    Another thing is that FiBA rules seem to be slowly moving more towards NBA rules which will help the USA.

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    Senior Member Steadysoul's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Straight forward View Post
    Here's the thing. USA doesn't have a single true superstar under 25 years old. The last true superstar is Anthony Davis is 25yo. Consider this. Sure USA has huge market and they will load their teams anyway, but couldn't they end up in the situation after 5 years when they will be lacking those super class players who "closes" those intense FIBA games.

    Or players like Booker, Donovan Mitchell, Tatum, Beal, Ball are next superstars? Basically I don't see a true superstar in the horizon as of yet. Someone in NCAA?
    Team USA isn't in any real trouble. Players are just getting old. They'll age out and new guys will take their place. You'd have to be naive to not see superstar potential in crop of young players.

  9. #9

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    Quote Originally Posted by Steadysoul View Post
    Team USA isn't in any real trouble. Players are just getting old. They'll age out and new guys will take their place. You'd have to be naive to not see superstar potential in crop of young players.
    You have to be blind if you believe you have a superstar of Lebron/Durant/Kobe branch younger than 25yo. The last true superstar is Davis. Players like Brooker and Tatum just doesn't have the same upside, frame, uniqueness.

    Someone very well said, that Lebron was setting the tone, actually Kobe as well. Than Durant played some important role in some tournaments. Those lifted USA to the level of unbeatable. USA is massive, they will have best rosters in the world constantly, but the difference is that the new superstar generation in NBA is entirely International with Giannis, Embiid, Porzingis, ect.
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    The reality of the situation is that currently the United States could probably send at least 10 different teams that would be considered heavy favorites to win any international tournament. So any talk of a decline is silly. The days of 2002-2004 and the variety of reasons that those teams were unsuccessful are over. I left out 2006 because that was a major upset that once in a blue moon can happen.

    On another note I found it hilarious that Kobe Bryant is promoting the Fiba World Cup considering in 2002, 2006 and 2010 he couldn’t care less about it and showed that by not participating.

  11. #11

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    Quote Originally Posted by usagre View Post
    The reality of the situation is that currently the United States could probably send at least 10 different teams that would be considered heavy favorites to win any international tournament. So any talk of a decline is silly. The days of 2002-2004 and the variety of reasons that those teams were unsuccessful are over. I left out 2006 because that was a major upset that once in a blue moon can happen.

    On another note I found it hilarious that Kobe Bryant is promoting the Fiba World Cup considering in 2002, 2006 and 2010 he couldn’t care less about it and showed that by not participating.
    The general idea is this, off course. But not necessary USA is safe. It depends how some international teams will build. Spain was damn close to really almighty teams of USA in second half of 00's and early 10's. Remember Argentina of 00's, they just were damn well build, very fundamentally sound and they played together for years and they could beat anybody, bring even USA, no problem. Also remember 2012 OG, group stage, Lithuania- USA, that USA was so damn deep. Kobe, Lebron and so on...and yet it was last minutes game and if not Lebrons cold blooded shots at the end...I don't see new Lebrons comings as of yet. USA won't be as safe as they were with true superstars at the perimeter. And it will depend on international teams, will there be new Argentina's, Spain's, Serbia's and Lithuania's of 00's. The thing is that international BB is growing very fast, the number of international players is higher than ever and some teams might build deadly core which will cause problems even for USA.

    Even that 2014 WC team had Curry, Harden and Kyrie Irwing...I'm not sure after 5-7 years USA will have that kind of gems at the bakcourt to be honest. And this team was projected as "mediocre" for USA NT standards...
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    @StraightForward

    But the problem with your argument is that the margins of victory and relative ease in which the United States is winning in these tournaments is growing not decreasing. If you start from 2006- present for the most part and taking into consideration the composition of the Usa teams the tournaments have gotten easier. Don’t be fooled by preliminary round games in which the USA has had close calls. It’s all about knockout games when the threat of being eliminated is present.
    And in those games the United States has pretty much cruised except for tight games against a Spanish team that is a once in a lifetime type European team. I think you are overrating the Argentinian team. They were really good but not on the level you are putting them on. Yes they beat a severely flawed Usa team in ‘04 that had no outside shooting on its roster.
    But they were handled with relative ease by the Usa with better constructed teams in 2003, 2006, 2008, and 2012.

  13. #13

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    But also the talent was pretty deep after 2006. Peaking Kobe, Lebron, Wade, Anthony...and later Durrant joined. Now let's leave aside those around thirty and more...what do we have? Davis, Oladipo, Kyrie, Beal, Drummond, Booker, Mitchell, Ball...That's a huge fall in terms of a talent and I don't see any of those reaching that kind of a level as above mentioned, except Davis probably who hasn't yet dominated in USA (is he even interested in that?).
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    Quote Originally Posted by Straight forward View Post
    But also the talent was pretty deep after 2006. Peaking Kobe, Lebron, Wade, Anthony...and later Durrant joined. Now let's leave aside those around thirty and more...what do we have? Davis, Oladipo, Kyrie, Beal, Drummond, Booker, Mitchell, Ball...That's a huge fall in terms of a talent and I don't see any of those reaching that kind of a level as above mentioned, except Davis probably who hasn't yet dominated in USA (is he even interested in that?).
    I would agree with that but I would also argue that although European individual stars have exploded onto the scene like Porzingis, Giannis Jokic and Doncic, the teams as a whole have declined.
    There isn’t a comp in South America to those Argentinian teams. There isn’t a comp to the great Spanish team either. And although Greece has produced Giannis the rest of the team fails miserably in comparison to the 2006-2008 squad. France and Lithuania are down as well in comparison. Serbia in my opinion is the only legitimate threat to the United States and that is under optimal conditions. They need all their stars healthy and clicking in order to challenge the United States. Other than that I currently see no other serious challenger out there.

  15. #15

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    Quote Originally Posted by usagre View Post
    I would agree with that but I would also argue that although European individual stars have exploded onto the scene like Porzingis, Giannis Jokic and Doncic, the teams as a whole have declined.
    There isn’t a comp in South America to those Argentinian teams. There isn’t a comp to the great Spanish team either. And although Greece has produced Giannis the rest of the team fails miserably in comparison to the 2006-2008 squad. France and Lithuania are down as well in comparison. Serbia in my opinion is the only legitimate threat to the United States and that is under optimal conditions. They need all their stars healthy and clicking in order to challenge the United States. Other than that I currently see no other serious challenger out there.
    At the moment, yes, but after 5 years, who knows. Obviously Canada might explode. Australia leaded by Simmons and glued with quality peases might be very interesting. As for Europe things changing fast here. Doncic comes from somewhere and he (with Dragic) leads Slovenia to EB gold. I agree that at the moment there's no-one as Spain used to be, but than again BB is changing, more and more international stars appear. Look at Latvia. One day it's a shadow of Lithuania, after few years they are legit EB contenders and possible powerhouse internationally (next Olympic cycle I guess). Porzingis, possible new unicorn Anzejs Pasecniks, than Arturs Zagars, Davis Bertans other prospects. France is stacked, but I don't know what it takes for them to contend.
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    I can’t take Canada seriously until they actually accomplish something. And Australia also has to show me a lot more as well. France is pretty deep but being Tony Parkerless will hurt them. But I agree things are fluid and you can’t tell what the future holds. But that also goes for United States talent that might not appear to be there now but can arise at any moment.

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    If I had to guess and using historical participation in World Championships as a guide, these are the 15 probable players in the pool that will make the roster this summmer.

    D. Lillard
    M. Conley
    K. Walker

    D. Mitchell
    V. Oladipo
    B. Beal
    D. Booker

    D. DeRozan
    K. Middleton
    McCollum

    T. Harris
    J. Tatum
    B. Griffin

    A. Drummond
    D. Jordan.

    Definitely a B level team similar to the previous teams that have participated in the past.

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