IBN prediction game - Discussion

[paspalj]

One problem of this game is inefectiveness of predicton on surprise .If twice predict on surprise and once you score ,second who predict this two games on first solution ,he have same points like you .Because that mostly have similar predictions .

There are many ways you can run a prediction-type game, adding more ways to reward good guesses and punish bad guesses but since it is run by a volunteer with a spreadsheet I don't think it's feasible for us to ask for added features. I assume that if you created a spreadsheet that implements all these goodies that you want, ByThor (or whoever is running the game) would be happy to use it.

[Nemanja]

There are many ways you can run a prediction-type game, adding more ways to reward good guesses and punish bad guesses but since it is run by a volunteer with a spreadsheet I don't think it's feasible for us to ask for added features. I assume that if you created a spreadsheet that implements all these goodies that you want, ByThor (or whoever is running the game) would be happy to use it.

I dont think system of game isnt good that I have proposal how can be better .I just highlight their lack ,they which organize maybe can find way how to improve game .

[Levenspiel]

One problem of this game is inefectiveness of predicton on surprise .If twice predict on surprise and once you score ,second who predict this two games on first solution ,he have same points like you .Because that mostly have similar predictions .

Cska-Olympiacos +6
Baskonia-Darussafaka + 14
Fenerbahce-Bayern+ 16
Barcelona-Maccabi +3
Khimki-Gran Canaria +2
Buducnost-Panathinaikos -4
Zalgiris-Real Madrid + 4
Olimpia Milano-Efes - 5

We tried that once, with an odds based system. The fewer people predicted results, the higher the odds were, and you would be rewarded if you could predict the surprise. Likewise, you got less points if everyone was predicted the same.

But it did not catch on, so we went back to basic.

[Nemanja]

+10 for Olympiacos is the only good thing in that depresive game (especially depresive for me, because in every of those games in which I opted for underdog, favorite team had won.).

Yes ,I wrote about that .Isnt especially creative and sustainable predict always on favorite team ,when opt for underdog even 50 percent you predicted good,isnt great result .In some of past week I good opt I think 6 games,but I wrong Gran Canaria-Efes,I predicted Gran Canaria,they lost 1 point,majority predicted on Efes,and in this week I finished under average .If Gran Canaria won probably I would be in best 5 . Dusko Vujosevic said one time ,aristocratic is beat fight which lost forwards . Neither you nor me will not win this game ,probably doesnt will be in 10 best placed ,but that not means we are weak predcitors .

[Levenspiel]

Yes ,I wrote about that .Isnt especially creative and sustainable predict always on favorite team ,when opt for underdog even 50 percent you predicted good,isnt great result .In some of past week I good opt I think 6 games,but I wrong Gran Canaria-Efes,I predicted Gran Canaria,they lost 1 point,majority predicted on Efes,and in this week I finished under average .If Gran Canaria won probably I would be in best 5 . Dusko Vujosevic said one time ,aristocratic is beat fight which lost forwards . Neither you nor me will not win this game ,probably doesnt will be in 10 best placed ,but that not means we are weak predcitors .

here it's really about adding another flavor to the gamedays. the system is not perfect, but simple and easier to manage. However, we can discuss about improvement points for the next year's game, and implement them if the participants agree. as we did last year with the multipliers for the playoffs & F4. So, please feel free to share your ideas.

[Adon]

here it's really about adding another flavor to the gamedays. the system is not perfect, but simple and easier to manage. However, we can discuss about improvement points for the next year's game, and implement them if the participants agree. as we did last year with the multipliers for the playoffs & F4. So, please feel free to share your ideas.

It's absolutely true though. Conservative predictions are statistically rewarded by the given rules.

[Nemanja]

I think losing points for wrong prediction is redundant ,because make big difference on one game of 7 points . Also,me and markkanen were regret on bad luck ,for this will need us help from somebody others than moderators .

[Levenspiel]

It's absolutely true though. Conservative predictions are statistically rewarded by the given rules.

It certainly is true. I mentioned this earlier somewhere in this thread. We had tried it with an odds-based system, run on Billy Bounce's algorithm. I liked it, but it did not catch on. consensus was to go back to simple calculation.

There are different and maybe easier ways to do it, though, such as borrowing the odds from an agreed betting site, and use it as a coefficient.

Any other ideas?

We can run a pilot for a few weeks, and if it works, we implement it next year.

[markkanen]

I think losing points for wrong prediction is redundant ,because make big difference on one game of 7 points . Also,me and markkanen were regret on bad luck ,for this will need us help from somebody others than moderators .

I agree. You cannot punish someone just because of some risk move. 3 for victory, 5 points for unexpected victory, and rest may be the same.

This is the most frustrating round for me. I predicted +20 in game Khimki - Buducnost, and +11 in game PAO - Barca. And what happens, only 3 points for those games, and, of course, the rest of posters have all the glory because most of them predicted around +5 for PAO.

And stupid Baskonia players, when I need some point difference reduce, of course they shot like amaters.

It's really frustrating to have around 70 points, and all others have 120-130 and more, I mean all of others. What's the point. I guess i am stubborn person, and I will continue, but this hurt me a lot. In first round I picked some random numbers, and there is 22 points. Now, it's pretty much from bad to worse.

[paspalj]

As in any game, the rules are the same for everybody.
You can't complain because in this particular case the odds were not in your favor.

Also, you can't complain because other people follow a strategy that will maximize their potential points. That's the whole point of a game :P

Even if we change the rules, there will be cases where somebody might feel that the rules didn't fit their predicitions

[Nemanja]

I agree. You cannot punish someone just because of some risk move. 3 for victory, 5 points for unexpected victory, and rest may be the same.

This is the most frustrating round for me. I predicted +20 in game Khimki - Buducnost, and +11 in game PAO - Barca. And what happens, only 3 points for those games, and, of course, the rest of posters have all the glory because most of them predicted around +5 for PAO.

And stupid Baskonia players, when I need some point difference reduce, of course they shot like amaters.

It's really frustrating to have around 70 points, and all others have 120-130 and more, I mean all of others. What's the point. I guess i am stubborn person, and I will continue, but this hurt me a lot. In first round I picked some random numbers, and there is 22 points. Now, it's pretty much from bad to worse.

I wrote yesterday,Fenerbahce and Olympiacos was near point difference to my prediction and not were ,today I miss Baskonia .Will sounds funny,I didnt knew Baskonia changed coach ,I wasnt follow news daily previous days .Start game, and seeing Perasovic I change tv channel ,I presumed win Armani .By the way,wrong decision of Baskonia,they had some way ,currently they will lose some games on change and season go away .I follow result and think for whom to support ,I think in this game doesnt work whatever happens ,at least Baskonia deserved to lose due inconsistency.Still wasnt goes to sleep ,I waiting exciting results,am I was number 29 or 35 .

[markkanen]

As in any game, the rules are the same from everybody.
You can't complain because in this particular case the odds were not in your favor.

Also, you can't complain because other people follow a strategy that will maximize their potential points. That's the whole point of a game :P

Even if we change the rules, there will be cases where somebody might feel that the rules didn't fit their predicitions

Mate, I complain because of lack of luck. My only chance to reduce the point difference in this game is to predict some score different for the rest of predicted scores, and look what is happening over and over again. I mean, scores in games like PAO - Barca and Khimki - Buducnost. I will continue to predict different results vs. majority of players, and I hope that things will change.

[paspalj]

Mate, I complain because of lack of luck. My only chance to reduce the point difference in this game is to predict some score different for the rest of predicted scores, and look what is happening over and over again. I mean, scores in games like PAO - Barca and Khimki - Buducnost. I will continue to predict different results vs. majority of players, and I hope that things will change.

I apologize if I sounded offensive by the way, it was not my intention.

I was just saying that in every set of rules, there needs to be some trade-off. As I said, there are multiple ways to set the game up:

• It could be high-risk, high-reward type of thing. For example, if you predict a large difference, you get more points. In this case though, this "bet" can't be for free. If you miss, you need to be penalized more.
• We could count the difference between prediction and the difference of the averages of the teams. For example, if Pao scores 90 points per game (I wish :P ) and Barca scores 80 points per game, then their difference is 10. If I predict +10 points I get 0 extra. If I predict +7 points then I get 10-7=3 extra points. There could be some threshold to avoid people losing 100 points in one game :P
• We could have a standard number, like 13 for example. No reason, just a nice prime number. We could subtract how far off we were on our prediction from that number. For example if Pao-Barca ended +15 and I had predicted +12 then the difference is 15-12=3 so we do 13-3=10 extra points.

Many many ways to do this but in the end, the person who is ahead can always afford to play more "safe" to maintain their position.

Good luck

[Adon]

It certainly is true. I mentioned this earlier somewhere in this thread. We had tried it with an odds-based system, run on Billy Bounce's algorithm. I liked it, but it did not catch on. consensus was to go back to simple calculation.

There are different and maybe easier ways to do it, though, such as borrowing the odds from an agreed betting site, and use it as a coefficient.

Any other ideas?

We can run a pilot for a few weeks, and if it works, we implement it next year.

I like your ideas. A couple of questions:

1. I don't know anything about betting online. Aren't the odds variables through time? Or are they fixed?

2. Do we need a poll or something? Most people here seem a bit obsessed by the game and not too eager to discuss anything.
A "yes or no" poll could make the trick.

[Levenspiel]

So, we have two major points of discussion:

1. back-up option in case the site is not reachable.
2. game rules & calculation method

1). as for the back-up, I agree, we need to do something about this. if we create a google document, I'm not sure if we can track timing properly (I'm no tech savvy person). or maybe, I'll create an IBN prediction email address, and you can send your predictions there in case IBN is down. This of course may trouble some people as it may reveal their names etc.

2). This is more complicated, and any change will have to be implemented next year. There are two main stances:

• Keep the simple rules. as it is. Rules are the same for everyone, thus it's fair
• Let's enrich the game. by rewarding risk-taking, etc. This way predicting difficult games will have more impact, thus it's will be more fair.

Changing game rules can be done many different ways. that's whole another discussion we can have here.

I'm going to add a poll a bit later, after forming at least the outlines of the new set of rules.