Lithuanians in Euroleague

[Straight forward]

I think Kulboka had a quality stint of trainings in Bamberg, a loan to Italy was great. Only that he ended up in bad time in main Bamberg's roster. The coach was some sort of thirty years old cocky kid who refused to use any younger players.

Giedraitis played 2 good seasons in Estudiantes second team, 4 division. In one season he got plenty of time, plenty and was dropping 20ppg. That experience was huge for him. Off course, this season is bitter sweet because of that injury and warming the bench, but he had wealthy pre-season and very promising start of his ACB career, that's good for 19yo. The problem is that now he'll be about a year without basketball and will probably have a hard time getting back in shape.

I agree that playing is the key. Velicka looked absolutely dead after Spain. Than he played tons in Estonia and came back to LKL pretty impressively for 20yo.

However, federation can do nothing about it and they shouldn't. I wouldn't like federation to limit my choices. Maybe they can provide some advices, that would be nice, but nothing more.

[Shawshank]

D.Giedraitis 2019/2020 acb 8 games played averaged 8min and 2,8pts per game at age of 19 that lost year for him.This season he played total 70 freaking minutes...youngster will learn close to nothing in 70 playing minutes all season.

[Mindozas]

Sedekerskis career was ruined by injuries more than by going abroad. It was amazingly bad luck how he was hit by injury again and again and again. He lost some years, confidence was damaged too. Velicka probably would've ended up like some Kelys, Dilys and co if he would've stayed here, he really had bad attitude, Barca helped him to mature a bit, lose touch with bad companies. But his attitude chased him even there, it was not a system, but his own behaviour who caused him troubles. He had chances, he blew it by demanding smth he should've earned with his work. In Spain youth system is simply better, we are changing our approach in growing local talents, especially individually, but still are having lot of work to do

[LuDux]

"Mostly at 4"

[Dreamcatcher]

Sedekerskis career was ruined by injuries more than by going abroad. It was amazingly bad luck how he was hit by injury again and again and again. He lost some years, confidence was damaged too. Velicka probably would've ended up like some Kelys, Dilys and co if he would've stayed here, he really had bad attitude, Barca helped him to mature a bit, lose touch with bad companies. But his attitude chased him even there, it was not a system, but his own behaviour who caused him troubles. He had chances, he blew it by demanding smth he should've earned with his work. In Spain youth system is simply better, we are changing our approach in growing local talents, especially individually, but still are having lot of work to do

Where did you get about Velicka's bad attitude and what was that attitude?

[Mindozas]

Where did you get about Velicka's bad attitude and what was that attitude?

It was not a big secret here in Kaunas back in the day, well, quite typical for a rising star who felt it too early with all the usual consequences. In Barca it helped a bit for him to grow up, but at the end he still showed some horns, was unhappy, wanted to practice with A team only and etc. Then was almost on strike when he was refused. Childish. At least now he looks to be on a right way and he still has time, we'll see where it will lead
Btw, I think moving away from LT would've helped for Janavicius too. Real/Barca or whoever was interested, don't remember now. I never rated him as a next big thing, like media hpyed him a next Saras, but he could've been surely better, instead he jumped into the same path with off-court activities and never really developed his weak links when he could had and needed to. I'd predict that he could've been like some Kalnietis for a NT level

[auris1]

Immaturity is very common .
when you are Velicka at 16 or 17 and you feel like you are one of the chosen ones because you play like a demigod and make all important shots ?
And then you go to Barcelona and nobody gives a shit about you?
So you go back and play in Estonia where you play extraordinary to go to play in LKL where you are just average at most .
Hold on - your place is already is taken by someone who is 2 years younger than you and who never was good as you when you played him.

[Dreamcatcher]

Giedraitis to Basconia. For a player who was very far away from being any solid prospect at his under 20 y.o. he has an amazing career.
On the other side Basconia still has Sedekerskis under the contract who was one of the best Lith prospects but you don't feel excited like in Rokas's case but feel like "Why they keep him all these years, he'd better return to Neptunas where he atleast has playing time".

[Straight forward]

I think it's worth pointing out (I must give here credit to krepsinis.net fresh article) that some kind of shift is being felt compared to previous seasons. Last season 2 Liths finished as EL foreigners (Gudaitis and R. Giedraitis, while Kuzminskas left EL during the season). That this poor quantity has been more or less a tendency confirms recent seasons, f.e. in 2015–2016 we also had only Maciulis and Kuzminskas in EL.

But here's a good signs now. 4 Liths will be foreigners in EL - Gudaitis, Ulanovas, R. Giedraitis, T. Sedekerskis. This number is not new recently, but that doesn't show all picture. I would make a case that Kuzminskas on the spot on team is surely EL level player (ALBA comes to my mind). Also I have no doubt Grigonis and Lekavicius would snatch EL foreigners roles if Zalgiris wouldn't have contracts with them. Assuming Sedekerskis is not established EL players, I would summarise that in 2020-2021 we will have 6 true EL level players who would be hired not only in Zalgiris in EL under given circumstances - Grigonis, Ulanovas, Gudaitis, Lekavicius, R. Giedraitis, Kuzminskas. That's not all that bad compared to some previous years. I think the growth of Gudaitis, Grigonis, Lekavicius, Giedraitis shows that we are on a certain rise, having in mind Sabonis' NBA campaign as well. The way I project it's just a scratch before really notable and long waited shift will appear soon in upcoming 1-4 years. I project a real rise of our BB talent level in this stretch, but this current scratch is real and since some 2018 we are on slight but noticeable growth.

So I see this formula:


Current Euroleague's true material - Grigonis, Ulanovas, Gudaitis, Lekavicius, R.Giedraitis, Kuzminskas (NBA material - Sabonis, Valanciunas)

+

Upcoming in 1-2 years true Euroleague's material - Sedekerskis, Kulboka, Jokubaitis, Echodas (NBA material - Tubelis, Brazdeikis)

+

Upcoming in 2-4 years true Euroleague's material - D. Giedraitis, A. Marciulionis, A. Velicka, T. Masiulis, Blazevic, M. Jogela (NBA material - Sirvydis, Murauskas)


The priority is the progression of Brazdeikis, Sedekerskis, Jokubaitis, Kulboka, Sirvydis, D. Giedraitis as most vital spots for NT improvement in nearest and most visible addition. PFs, wings and guards is what we lack the most. We have plenty of centers and small forwards.

[Shawshank]

yuo are projecting LTU basketball rise every 2 years since like 2009 Dont remember you guessing right very often.Its just basically impossible to guess.

i dont remember year where you guessed decline of Ltu basketball that happens also.Because you are not noticing what players are on their way out,only looking on youngsters that alone makes your prediction very unrealiable and looking only on youngsters you see only rises .

When 1985 generation got old we have a decline and no new 2-3 tallented youngsters of the bench could cover that.

That moment where players goes from boys to men game is huge and very hard to predict anything.Its not about just raw tallent or given body,other very important things comes to play: character,working ethic,what player have in his head,can his body handle professionals loads and so on.Nobody knows that about 17-18 old kids,including themself.

if from those your mentioned 8-9 youngsters atleast 3-4 will become long time NT players that would be good outcome.Every generations loses like half of their biggest tallents,because all they were given is body and tallent,but didnt have other importants things in them to become true world class player.

I also see rise of ltu NT in next 3-4 years ,not because some current 19-22 old upcomming kids that will be 9-12 rotation players in upcomming years,but because your mentioned 1992-1994 born euroleague level players is close to be ready to win now.

[Straight forward]

Good points, Shawshank.

The reliance and weight of my projections now and 10 years ago differs substantially. In 10 years understanding of basketball and personal qualities (partiality, objectivity, vigilance) changes a lot if you are working on it, if you follow one of your passions intensively. I can only laugh now from my obsession with Gecevicius. Never would be high on a prospect with extremely soft physicality, little handles for a guard, super soft D, inability to go for solid drives and finishing inside, yet I was fascinated with his shooting, high IQ p'n'r reads and offensive awareness overall, hoping that it will be enough for him to succeed. Also back then, when you're into your twenties, you have to Lithuanian basketball passion partiality, you do push things a little bit in favour of your desired outcomes. You do take criticism sensitively. I think to some extent most fans still have that more or less, but I dear to say now I have little of it. Also tools and ability to judge players increased a lot. We can even see now NKL games a lot, we can observe prospects, read tons of articles about their game of PRO scouts, and that improves the projections vastly.

You right, some of my projecting prospect studs will collapse. Turn out to be average (Gecevicius, Janavicius or even Seibutis to some extent who had some NBA pedigree as a prospect), will be crippled by injuries (Pocius, Motiejunas), or will waste their talent because of mental mistakes (Dilys and Co). More subtle case are when players are obviously lacking physicality, but yet are talented enough to be impressive in YOUTH level (Vasiliauskas, Gecevicius, Varnas, Valinskas) or vise versa are dominant physically wise in YOUTH level, but lacks talent and IQ to truly prevail in PRO (Redikas, Cizauskas, E. Seskus, Balciunas ect). I really try to focus on those latter aspects. Most painful collapse recently is Varnas. The guy really had all the the package to be a good guard, but it didn't transit well to the higher level where physicality is much different.

Your point about declining veterans are interesting. Indeed I underestimated declining 00s generation. If not those 2 tournaments in 2012 I think they could pull out yet another solid performance in OG. And specially in 2013, when D. Lavrinovic presence was very unexpected and very important, or the same Delininkaitis. However, I think 10's generation declined on the worse fashion. To me we are on obvious decline since 2015 EB. Since that Maciulis, Seibutis, Jankunas weren't the same. Kalnietis remained good, but in 2017 he also showed obvious signs of declining and there was from little to none addition. So we were on decline. Yet in 2019 we already witnessed a growth with Grigonis, Lekavicius, Ulanovas, Sabonis going for buckets and all aggressively, really contributing. Also contribution from Butkevicius as a role players was pleasant surprise, too bad R. Giedraitis couldn't find his spot.

However, I disagree that we have the core who is poised to win. It may not be worse core than 10's, but in 10's we won with a lot of luck and great draw. These things doesn't happen often. Objectively, we lack talent and some positions are too weak at the moment. We lack TOP guns, specially at backcourt and wings. It's tricky to project when things will mesh to snatch the medals, but I'm speaking about general growth of talent. We will see more players playing in highest level: elite EL teams and NBA soon.

I'm not saying my projection can't fail, but it's completely different level of evaluation. The filter is much more strict this time to say the least. No prospects as K. Giedraitis, Uleckas, Venckus and others. I mention only those that I truly see becoming real PROs. And the point is that even with false enthuasiasm I wouldn't had been able to come up with such long list in early 10's. We simply got much more wealthy prospect's harvest recently.

[Dreamcatcher]

Giedraitis has become the hottest Lithuanian to follow (leaving NBA outside). Firstly it was a rare case when a player moved from Eurocup to Euroleague and he played only better averaging very solid 14 pts ( Alba case). But then he moved to the highier team (even if it's not the strongest Basconia in its history) and it seems his humbers can even grow. In the first games he averages 19 pts that is elite EL top5 scoring. Few hours ago he scored the same 19 pts in a won ACB game against Barsa. I'm already thinking where he could play next season. Some Real?

[Straight forward]

Rokas Giedraitis' numbers are incredible. However you look at it, he deserves a lot of credit. But I watched first game against Real, he was struggling, made some crazy last second shot, and stats shows solid 12pts. Now against Barsa he drops some crazy first second possessions threes, some crazy floaters. I mean...he's good, but in very peculiar way. Like he can easily slip from volume scorers' role to non impacful player's role. And knowing his struggles at D...Again, I would throw him with Lekavicius in the second unit and would see what happen regarding NT. He either scores with the sound or takes sort of awkward shots and plays crappy D, you can get any side of the coin from Giedraitis any given game. 19pts per game thus far is nasty though (with great accuracy), he's on Macijauskas soil at the moment.

I also surprised how good is Ulanovas. Drops almost 10pts for Fener. Shoots 50% threes solid start.

However, to me the key player is still Jokubaitis thus far. He's unleashing something we really didn't see for a long long time. You can see a player that you can build your EL/NT franchise around coming up.

[Shawshank]

Jokubaitis is really breath of fresh air and timeline is very good for him (goes well with retiring Kalnietis). His play goes up and down but that normal thing at this age.

I dont know will Olympics will be played at all next summer , how its looks now i would guess " no ". There is no point in olympics without close to million live fan base.Corona will not disappear in next 8-9 months.

By 2022 summer Jokubaitis should be fully ready to play starting pg role.And let Lukas do his 6th men offensive impact he does really on world class level by now.

[Mindozas]

Jokubaitis is really breath of fresh air and timeline is very good for him (goes well with retiring Kalnietis). His play goes up and down but that normal thing at this age.

I dont know will Olympics will be played at all next summer , how its looks now i would guess " no ". There is no point in olympics without close to million live fan base.Corona will not disappear in next 8-9 months.

As some IOC chief said not so long ago - "Olympics would take place with or without Covid-19". There's too much money to lose to cancel it and in summer cases numbers should drop. Maybe there won't be Olympic village, all the athletes will live in hotels, all that opening/closing ceremonies will be different, not sure what will happen with spectators, probably it will be limited number in all sports, some more, some less, but Olympics should happen, other question if we'll be there, I mean mens basketball team. Anyway, if we'll make it, it's good to see Jokubaitis getting really close to be there too and it's still 9 months to improve