Group B scenarios

[Dtown]

Yeah this is going to require a team effort cause there's no way I get all of this right.

We all new this was going to happen once the group was announced. An actual group of death. Now coming down to the last day everyone is still alive...though not for long.

Here's what we know!

Lithuania and Argentina are going to make the knockout round!


Nigeria and Brazil can't win the group

In a multiple tied at 3-2 scenario, Lithuania's probably fucked. Losing by 50 is bad, like real bad.

Spain can still win the group!

Spain can still be eliminated!

UGH

I guess I can try to narrow this by team. AGAIN PLEASE CORRECT ME THIS SHIT IS COMPLICATED.

Lithuania
Guaranteed in the knockout round!
Wins group if: They beat Croatia
Chance of tanking: 0%
Straight forward, beat Croatia, win the group. Pretend loss to Spain never happened.

Argentina
Guaranteed in the knockout round!
Wins group if: They beat Spain, and Lithuania loses.
Chances of tanking: 0%
As the middle game they have no idea how the Lithuanian game is going to go so no choice but to try to win.

Spain
Gets in with a win
Wins group if: Beat Argentina and Lithuania loses
Gets knocked out if: They lose to Argentina, and Croatia beat Lithuania or Brazil beats Nigeria
chances of tanking 0%
Most to win and lose, are they back, are they done?

Croatia
Gets in with a win
Wins Group with: Insane point differential win
Gets Knocked out if: Lose and Nigeria win, Spain win.
chances of taniking 0-100%
They play the last game so they'll know if winning is necessary or does nothing.

Brazil
Can't win the group
Gets in: Win + Croatia win + Spain loss
Gets Knocked if: Loss, Win+Croatian loss + Spain win, Croatian loss + Spain loss + pont differential difference.
Chance of tank: 0% have to win

Nigeria
Can't win group
Gets in: Win + Spain win + Croatia Loss
Gets knocked out: Loss, Spain loss + Croatian win, Spain loss + Croatian loss and Point differential difference.
Chance of tank: 0% have to win.
Why the hell not?!

[judasmartel]

Let me help you with that, sir.

------------------
Group B Scenarios
------------------

w - LTU 3-1
w - ARG 3-1
o - CRO 2-2
o - ESP 2-2
o - BRA 1-3
o - NGR 1-3

------------------------
Remaining Matches:
------------------------

NGR - BRA
ESP - ARG
LTU - CRO

------------------------

------------------------
a) NGR, ESP, LTU
------------------------
1 - LTU 4-1
2 - ESP 3-2 (1-0)
3 - ARG 3-2 (0-1)
4 - NGR 2-3 (1-0)
x - CRO 2-3 (0-1)
x - BRA 1-4

------------------------
b) NGR, ESP, CRO
------------------------
1 - CRO 3-2 (2-1, 1-0)
2 - ESP 3-2 (2-1, 0-1)
3 - LTU 3-2 (1-2, 1-0)
4 - ARG 3-2 (1-2, 0-1)
x - NGR 2-3
x - BRA 1-4

-------------------------
c) NGR, ARG, LTU
-------------------------
1 - LTU 4-1 (1-0)
2 - ARG 4-1 (1-0)
3 - ESP 2-3 (1-1, +7)
4 - NGR 2-3 (1-1, +5)
x - CRO 2-3 (1-1, -12)
x - BRA 1-4

--------------------------
d) NGR, ARG, CRO
--------------------------
1 - ARG 4-1
2 - CRO 3-2 (1-0)
3 - LTU 3-2 (0-1)
4 - ESP 2-3 (1-0)
x - NGR 2-3 (0-1)
x - BRA 1-4

------------------------
e) BRA, ESP, LTU
------------------------
1 - LTU 4-1
2 - ESP 3-2 (1-0)
3 - ARG 3-2 (0-1)
4 - CRO 2-3 (1-0)
x - BRA 2-3 (0-1)
x - NGR 1-4

-----------------------
f) BRA, ESP, CRO
-----------------------
1 - CRO 3-2 (2-1, 1-0)
2 - ESP 3-2 (2-1, 0-1)
3 - LTU 3-2 (1-2, 1-0)
4 - ARG 3-2 (1-2, 0-1)
x - BRA 2-3
x - NGR 1-4

------------------------
g) BRA, ARG, LTU
------------------------
1 - LTU 4-1 (1-0)
2 - ARG 4-1 (0-1)
3 - CRO 2-3 (2-0)
4 - BRA 2-3 (1-1)
x - ESP 2-3 (0-2)
x - NGR 1-4

------------------------
h) BRA, ARG, CRO
------------------------
1 - ARG 4-1
2 - CRO 3-2 (1-0)
3 - LTU 3-2 (0-1)
4 - BRA 2-3 (1-0)
x - ESP 2-3 (0-1)
x - NGR 1-4

----------------------------

Yes, it's complicated af. Now teams will have to think, "Should we go all out and get the 1 seed but risk dropping all the way down to the 4 seed, or tank and get the 3 seed but risk dropping out of the QF?"

In the end though, everything comes down to the Nigeria-Brazil game.

To tank or not to tank. That is the question.

Pick your freaking poison.

[JGX]

This is what I have:

LTU, ARG, BRA win-->LTU wins group, ARG second, CRO third, BRA fourth
LTU, ARG, NGR win-->LTU wins group, ARG second, ESP third, NGR fourth
LTU, ESP, BRA win-->LTU wins group, ESP second, ARG third, CRO fourth
LTU, ESP, NGR win -->LTU wins group, ESP second, ARG third, NGR fourth
CRO, ARG, BRA win-->ARG wins group, CRO second, LTU third, BRA fourth
CRO, ARG, NGR win-->ARG wins group, CRO second, LTU third, ESP fourth
CRO, ESP, BRA win-->CRO wins group, ESP second, LTU third, ARG fourth
CRO, ESP, NGR win-->CRO wins group, ESP second, LTU third, ARG fourth

This is based on the tiebreaker procedures on pages 72-76 here:

http://www.fiba.com/documents/2015/Official_Basketball_Rules_2014_Y.pdf

I don't know if they use something different for the Olympics.

Based on those procedures, my understanding is that in the four-way tie scenario, Spain and Croatia would be the top two based on their 2-1 record against the tied teams, and then Croatia would get first place based on their win over Spain.

[Dtown]

I can't see any team aside from Croatia tanking just because there's just too many unknowns.

[judasmartel]

I can't see any team aside from Croatia tanking just because there's just too many unknowns.

Nah, Croatia ain't tanking. All they need to do is to cheer for Brazil and Spain, then they can go for broke vs Lithuania. If they lost, well, at least they tried. If not, they win the group and they prepare vs their Yugoslavian rivals Serbia.

[JGX]

Yeah, I don't think the order of games lends itself to tanking. The only good potential tank is Croatia if Argentina and Brazil win the first two games.

If the Lithuania-Croatia game was before the Argentina-Spain game, there would be better tanking opportunities, including a potential double tank if Lithuania and Nigeria won the first two.

[judasmartel]

Yeah, I don't think the order of games lends itself to tanking. The only good potential tank is Croatia if Argentina and Brazil win the first two games.

If the Lithuania-Croatia game was before the Argentina-Spain game, there would be better tanking opportunities, including a potential double tank if Lithuania and Nigeria won the first two.

Yes. If that's the case, I just hope if Croatia does just that, it bites them in the ass HARD like what happened to Australia in the 2014 WC when they allegedly tanked vs Angola to avoid the US until the semis, then Emir Preldzic of Turkey made a dagger 3 to break the whole scheme.

[Shawshank]

1/4

Lithuania-Serbia
Australia-Argentina

Usa-Croatia
France-Spain

[Jon_Koncak]

If Bra and Spain win their matches Lietuva will have an epic tank..despite their performance so far they'll prefer to play Australia in quarters than Serbia..it's gonna be glorious tanking.

[judasmartel]

If Bra and Spain win their matches Lietuva will have an epic tank..despite their performance so far they'll prefer to play Australia in quarters than Serbia..it's gonna be glorious tanking.

But that means if Lithuania lost or indeed tanked, we will have a Yugoslavian quarterfinal on our hands.

[usagre]

1/4

Lithuania-Serbia
Australia-Argentina

Usa-Croatia
France-Spain

Completely agree.