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Thread: Lithuania to bounce back?

  1. #121

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    Let's speculate a little bit on upcoming decades' best scenario for Lith NT:

    - Sirvydis pans out to a role NBA player and a star scorer for the NT. ESPN puts him at 33 2019 drafts.
    - Ignas Bradeikis becomes a solid NBA role player and decides to play for Lith NT. He's ranked among 25-30 picks of 2019 drafts usually.
    - Marciulionis evolves into a beast. I won't speculate on his upside, would it be Euroleague or even NBA, but I see him as star potential PG in terms of NT standards.
    - Jokubaitis will turn into fine PG, becoming a creative force for the NT.
    - Sedekerskis will find ways to catch up his upside. IMO, he still can be one of the keys in upcoming decade. His Youth NT performance was dominant and he looked like the next big thing after Domas. He has been struggling as a PRO (even though showed some glimpses of greatness in LKL), but he can potentially be the best defensive forward and a hardworker of NT, IMO. His Youth performance was more impressive than Maciulis and Ulanovas in the comparison.
    - Talented 20yo wings in Jogela and Kulboka will develop into good players.
    - M. Kancleris will develop into a beast PF.
    - Blazevic become the best big after Sabonis.

    Here's how I would like turning a next page with 2021 EB:

    PG Lekavicius (27), Jokubaitis (21)
    SG Grigonis (27), Sirvydis (21), Jogela (23) (or Giedraitis 29)
    SF Ulanovas (29), Bradeikis (23), Sedekerskis (23)
    PF Sabonis (25), Motiejunas (31) Kuzminskas (31)
    C Valanciunas (29), Gudaitis (28)

    That would be a nicely balanced team with some young and great veteran players. Very well balanced. Sure, we might want to incorporate one pure guard at section 2 if some stud will prevail as all of SGs here are wings, but overall I think this team would be roaring with potential compared to what we had in the mid of 10's. Interesting fact, marked players are lefties, so this would be a lefties team, harder to guard probably. Also I would probably see Kulboka at 4 with his 208cm. Deadly stretch 4 with improved body.

    And here's how I see the peak of the next decade (at the moment) at 2025. Wild guess though:

    Marciulionis, Jokubaitis
    Sirvydis, Grigonis 31, Jogela
    Brazdeikis, Sedekerskis
    Kancleris, Kulboka, (unknown yet)
    Sabonis 30, Valanciunas 34 (or Blazevic 24)

    I see 5-6 players with legit NBA potential (marked) and three with borderline NBA potential (Sedekerskis, Jogela, Kulboka).

    Would some-one disagree that we are getting closer to next decade with much bigger upside compared to the previous decade (around 2009)?

    Back than we seen Janavicius, Gecevicius, Vasiliauskas (Seibutis, Pocius, Kalnietis already were 22-23yo already so they kinda fall out, much like now we don't really see Lekavicius and Grigonis, or Sabonis as prospects anymore) as strong prospects (so not even a smell of NBA basically), than some hopes on Ulanovas, Cizauskas, while the only real free studs where JV, D-Mo, Kuzminskas. OK, JV and D-Mo looked like huge trump cards back than and JV pan out to expectations pretty much, D-Mo failed.

    I really believe that Sabonis + bunch of the prospects with the shadow of NBA (+extremely talented backourt prospects in Sirvydis, Marciulionis and Jokubaitis) will be the better generation. And overall our talent pool will improve. Since the next decade I pretty much see an all EL quality team. We won't have Eurocup level fillers most likely, IMO.

    In my opinion we will have a very good chances to go far high goals in 2021- 2016 period and probably later on. I predict that 2024 Olympics will be the first Olympics when we will be back on track since 2008, that is being a legitimate contenders.
    Last edited by Straight forward; 02-05-2019 at 02:07 PM.
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  2. #122
    Senior Member Hepcat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Straight forward View Post
    Let's speculate a little bit on upcoming decades' best scenario for Lith NT:

    - Sirvydis pans out to a role NBA player and a star scorer for the NT. ESPN puts him at 33 2019 drafts.
    - Ignas Bradeikis becomes a solid NBA role player and decides to play for Lith NT. He's ranked among 25-30 picks of 2019 drafts usually.
    - Marciulionis evolves into a beast. I won't speculate on his upside, would it be Euroleague or even NBA, but I see him as star potential PG in terms of NT standards.
    - Jokubaitis will turn into fine PG, becoming a creative force for the NT.
    - Sedekerskis will find ways to catch up his upside. IMO, he still can be one of the keys in upcoming decade. His Youth NT performance was dominant and he looked like the next big thing after Domas. He has been struggling as a PRO (even though showed some glimpses of greatness in LKL), but he can potentially be the best defensive forward and a hardworker of NT, IMO. His Youth performance was more impressive than Maciulis and Ulanovas in the comparison.
    - Talented 20yo wings in Jogela and Kulboka will develop into good players.
    - M. Kancleris will develop into a beast PF.
    - Blazevic become the best big after Sabonis.


    In my opinion we will have a very good chances to go far high goals in 2021- 2026 period and probably later on.
    Well I hope you're right. But there's many a slip twixt cup and lip.


  3. #123
    Senior Member Shawshank's Avatar
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    stf you missing one very important point in 2009.There were very hard nose,strong character type 85 generation players were upcoming ( they were 23-24 at that time) and becoming real profesionals that our nt team was holding on for next 6-7 years till 2016...2009 we had Valanciunas,Motiejunas,Kuzminskas prospects +85 golden medal generation with leader Kleiza ( all under 25)...I dont see big upgrade in 2021 in your prospects.

    85 Generation Kleiza,Maciulis,Jankunas,Kalnietis,Seibutis,Pocius and to lesser degree Kavaliauskas was key contributers what we got in 2009-2016 years.

    In that 7 year run by that group leading our nt team made 4 semifinals and won 3 medals.That will not be so easy to repeat .In 2010-2016 we always were in top8.Maybe they werent most tallented group,but they had true fight and winners mentality in them starting from youth competions.
    Last edited by Shawshank; 02-09-2019 at 02:59 PM.

  4. #124

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    Quote Originally Posted by Shawshank View Post
    stf you missing one very important point in 2009.There were very hard nose,strong character type 85 generation players were upcoming ( they were 23-24 at that time) and becoming real profesionals that our nt team was holding on for next 6-7 years till 2016...2009 we had Valanciunas,Motiejunas,Kuzminskas prospects +85 golden medal generation with leader Kleiza ( all under 25)...I dont see big upgrade in 2021 in your prospects.

    85 Generation Kleiza,Maciulis,Jankunas,Kalnietis,Seibutis,Pocius and to lesser degree Kavaliauskas was key contributers what we got in 2009-2016 years.

    In that 7 year run by that group leading our nt team made 4 semifinals and won 3 medals.That will not be so easy to repeat .In 2010-2016 we always were in top8.Maybe they werent most tallented group,but they had true fight and winners mentality in them starting from youth competions.
    Look, I have a huge respect to "85" generation as you say. I think they were super pros, super united, super team, system players and I thank them a lot. Yet, your mentioned generation - Kleiza, Kalnietis, Maciulis, Seibutis, jankunas, Pocius is the the weakest generation since 1992. It sounds harsh knowing how much they done and how cool people they are, but that's true. We had Sabas/Marciulionis generation in 90's, we had Saras/Siska generation in 00's and we had Kalnietis/Maciulis generation in 10s (Kleiza was big only in 2010 as an absolute leader and I think Maciulis had even bigger impact overall in 10's). That's three major generations and the latter is by far the weakest. Now you say we won three medals and so on, but it was in second tier tournaments. 2010WC was weak, declining Argentina, young Serbia, Pauless Spain and so on...2013 was a weak Eurobasket and a perfect draw for us (besides we almost blew it in the group stage). We manhandled unpredictable and shaky Italy and semi-talented young Croatia to get to the finals and got badly schooled by France in finals. 2015EB was hero time Eurobasket, it was a strong Eurobasket, but we needed a miracle from Maciulis in 16finals against Georgia. Surely the win against Serbia in semis was sensational and historical, but we again got badly swept in finals against Spain. Our Olympic performance in 2012 was nearly shameful, and it was indeed shameful in 2016. So despite team coherence and medals in second rate tournaments, we witnessed the saddest days of Lithuanian basketball. In terms of medals we won't get much of them next decade because the system is different now, but I have little doubt we will ripen more talented and superior generation than Kalnietis/Maciulis generation.
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  5. #125
    Senior Member LuDux's Avatar
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    1985 generation was so bigly weak, you could tell them apart from 1986 generation

  6. #126
    Senior Member Shawshank's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Straight forward View Post
    Look, I have a huge respect to "85" generation as you say. I think they were super pros, super united, super team, system players and I thank them a lot. Yet, your mentioned generation - Kleiza, Kalnietis, Maciulis, Seibutis, jankunas, Pocius is the the weakest generation since 1992. It sounds harsh knowing how much they done and how cool people they are, but that's true. We had Sabas/Marciulionis generation in 90's, we had Saras/Siska generation in 00's and we had Kalnietis/Maciulis generation in 10s (Kleiza was big only in 2010 as an absolute leader and I think Maciulis had even bigger impact overall in 10's). That's three major generations and the latter is by far the weakest. Now you say we won three medals and so on, but it was in second tier tournaments. 2010WC was weak, declining Argentina, young Serbia, Pauless Spain and so on...2013 was a weak Eurobasket and a perfect draw for us (besides we almost blew it in the group stage). We manhandled unpredictable and shaky Italy and semi-talented young Croatia to get to the finals and got badly schooled by France in finals. 2015EB was hero time Eurobasket, it was a strong Eurobasket, but we needed a miracle from Maciulis in 16finals against Georgia. Surely the win against Serbia in semis was sensational and historical, but we again got badly swept in finals against Spain. Our Olympic performance in 2012 was nearly shameful, and it was indeed shameful in 2016. So despite team coherence and medals in second rate tournaments, we witnessed the saddest days of Lithuanian basketball. In terms of medals we won't get much of them next decade because the system is different now, but I have little doubt we will ripen more talented and superior generation than Kalnietis/Maciulis generation.
    Tallent wise maybe they were weakest one generation (because we need to compare them to star loaded generation).That you want to believe that 20s generation will be better,that doesnt mean it will be like that.10s didnt have superstars (Kleiza was very close to that and stop erasing him from 85gen,he was still very good in 2012,2013 compared to 95% of our players).But do not mentione them in 2009 observation is ridiculous that was my point.Without them no medals what so ever .Im saying that next generation can be even weaker,atleast that what i see on paper.I dont see true winners even i youth competions now.That generation 85 compensated lack of tallent with others things,good luck atleast repeat what they did.Nobody cares now what situations was in tournamnets back then, when you look now from history stands point results is most important thing .1985 leaded team was in elite period.

    I dont care how lucky you got,to win playoofs game after game (year after year) you have to be mentaly really strong ,just tallent wont save you everytime without character and heart.

    in 90s 3 semifinals,3 medals
    in 00s 5 semifinals,3 medals
    in 10s 4 semifinals,3 medals and 2019 championship left to play

    i dont see big diffrence between those 3 generations you compared results wise

    you can remember 1985 generation as luckiest ever,i will remember them as generation with biggest balls and biggest hearts.2015 playoofs run is my favorite from this generation that shown all the best sides of that group.

    If luck is repeating over and over again it this really just luck or some other things hiding behind that ?
    Last edited by Shawshank; 02-10-2019 at 07:27 PM.

  7. #127

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    Quote Originally Posted by Shawshank View Post
    in 90s 3 semifinals,3 medals
    in 00s 5 semifinals,3 medals
    in 10s 4 semifinals,3 medals and 2019 championship left to play
    The quality of these medals differ highly (besides 90's for us started in 92 and it's unfair because we could rock in 90 and 91). We sucked in Olympics in 10's, 2 horrible performances and that clearly shows we simply were not the part of elite in 10s.
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  8. #128
    Senior Member Hepcat's Avatar
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    So in light of this past weekend's LKL action, have both Rytas and Neptūnas jelled as teams and gotten their games together just in time for the quarterfinals in their respective European leagues? How do their chances for victory in the quarters look?

    Last edited by Hepcat; 03-04-2019 at 02:53 PM.

  9. #129
    Senior Member Shawshank's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Straight forward View Post
    The quality of these medals differ highly (besides 90's for us started in 92 and it's unfair because we could rock in 90 and 91). We sucked in Olympics in 10's, 2 horrible performances and that clearly shows we simply were not the part of elite in 10s.
    Clearly not elite? You don't understand what is elite... Or you ranking elite as only medalist... Because for me elite is top 5-6 that all decade were near medal or won medals.

    I see only 4 teams that arguably did better than Lithuania in 10s and thats my friend is elite world team that was 5th team. Results is same as in other decades, but you are trying so hard and still cand find seriuos arguments...

    All decades had fiasco 1993 and 2001 happend you liked or not with marciulionis and jasikevicius teams... Bad tournaments is part of the sport.
    Last edited by Shawshank; 03-04-2019 at 02:04 PM.

  10. #130

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    Quote Originally Posted by Shawshank View Post
    Clearly not elite? You don't understand what is elite... Or you ranking elite as only medalist... Because for me elite is top 5-6 that all decade were near medal or won medals.

    I see only 4 teams that arguably did better than Lithuania in 10s and thats my friend is elite world team that was 5th team. Results is same as in other decades, but you are trying so hard and still cand find seriuos arguments...

    All decades had fiasco 1993 and 2001 happend you liked or not with marciulionis and jasikevicius teams... Bad tournaments is part of the sport.
    I mean, you're seriously going to pretend that our NT was at the same level in 90's, 00's and 10's? For me, it's more than obvious, in 90's and 10's we could get into the Olympic semifinals (and even grab bronze models) and in 10's we couldn't. That has nothing to do with fiasco. 10's teams where simply too weak to do that in 2012 and 2016. And it's not like we lacked some bunch of key players. We were going with full rosters.

    2 major and most important tournaments in 10's were Olympic games in 2012 and 2016. We finished at 8th spot and 7th. That wasn't a fluke, we didn't have more talented teams than teams above us.

    How how the heck you decided that elite is exactly 5-6 teams? Why not than say 7-8, or 8-10? Being among top 4 teams is elite, IMO.
    Last edited by Straight forward; 03-04-2019 at 03:05 PM.
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  11. #131
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    Quote Originally Posted by Straight forward View Post
    I mean, you're seriously going to pretend that our NT was at the same level in 90's, 00's and 10's? For me, it's more than obvious, in 90's and 10's we could get into the Olympic semifinals (and even grab bronze models) and in 10's we couldn't. That has nothing to do with fiasco. 10's teams where simply too weak to do that in 2012 and 2016. And it's not like we lacked some bunch of key players. We were going with full rosters.

    2 major and most important tournaments in 10's were Olympic games in 2012 and 2016. We finished at 8th spot and 7th. That wasn't a fluke, we didn't have more talented teams than teams above us.
    It's interesting how time changed your view on our achievements in these tournaments


  12. #132

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mindozas View Post
    It's interesting how time changed your view on our achievements in these tournaments
    View changes, basketball understanding changes. In 2012 I was thinking Kemzura made mistakes roster wise, I was thinking Kemzura had to go with young team like in 2010. Now I don't have any criticism to Kemzura and generally Kazlauskas also (even if he made it bunch of smaller and bigger mistakes in 2016 season). At the end of the day, we simply didn't have elite teams in those Olympic cycles...
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  13. #133

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    What's with all lefties coming up all of the sudden? Look at this "hypothetical" team:

    Lekavicius, Jokubautis (janavicius)
    Sirvydis, Jarumbauskas
    Ulanovas, Brazdeikis (...),
    Sabonis, (Motiejunas, Jankunas)
    Birutis, Tubelis

    Did we ever had so many quality young and established lefties?
    Last edited by Straight forward; 03-13-2019 at 01:13 PM.
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  14. #134
    Senior Member Hepcat's Avatar
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    So Žalgiris I see is still hanging on for dear life in the hunt for a Euroleague playoff position.


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