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European NT Coefficient Ranking

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  • European NT Coefficient Ranking

    I hope this is a correct location for this thread.

    Introduction
    I think there is a general consensus in this forum and among most basketball fans that the FIBA World Ranking does not depict the actual strength of most teams in the world, especially in Europe, where many good teams fail to qualifyfor big tournaments and end up too low in the table.

    Inspired by UEFA national teams coefficients, I tried to come up with a new formula of providing the ranking for European national teams. The general rules of my ranking are:
    • Coefficients are counted during a 4 year cycle. So the current coefficient is the outcome of the results in the years 2010-2013.
    • Older results tend to count less towrads the final coefficient. 2010 results are multiplied by 10%, 2011 by 20%, 2012 by 30% and 2013 by 40%. For the next coefficients ('11-'14) 2010 results will not count at all, the rest will be lowered by 10% and 2014 results will be multiplied by 40%.
    • Matches counted consist of: World Cup, Olympics, pre-qualifying for the Olympics, Eurobasket, Eurobasket qualification (all phases)
    • According to the strength of the competition and of the particular stage of the competition the match was part of, different bonus are awarded to both teams.
    • Points scored and conceded also count (a lesser amount)


    The only exception to the above was the Additional Qualifying Round for Eurobasket 2011, which was not counted. All the other matches played were counted (World Cup 2011, Eurobasket 2011 Qualification, Eurobasket 2011, pre-qualifying for the Olympics and the Olympic tournament 2012, Eurobasket 2013 Qualification, Eurobasket 2013 and Eurobasket 2015 Qualification A). In the parentheses above, different colours are used for the different years those matches were played (so, a different weight was applied to them).
    For 2010-2011, teams that participated in the now defunct Division B, were awarded a base coefficient of 5000.
    Teams that did not participate in any competition for a particular year, did not earn any points.
    In the case of Slovenia 2012, when they played no games because they had auto-qualified for the Eurobasket as hosts, but had not qualified for the Olympics, their 2011 coefficient was also applied to 2012.

    Points awarded
    For every match, both teams get 10,000 points for playing. The winner gets an extra 20,000 points. For every point scored, 101 points are added. For every point conceded, 100 points are deducted. There are no draws (overtime result is the only one counted).

    Bonus points are awarded to both teams, depending of the competition and the stage of the competition.
    Eurobasket
    Qualification A Groups -10000
    Qualification A Play-offs 0
    Qualification 0
    Group Phase match 5000
    Top-12 10000
    QF 15000
    5th-8th place matches 10000
    SF 20000
    3rd place Final 25000
    Final 30000

    World Cup
    Group Phase match 7000
    Eighth Finals 15000
    Quarter-Finals 20000
    5th-8th place matches 12000
    Semi-Finals 30000
    3rd place Final 35000
    Final 50000

    Olympics
    Pre-Qualifying Tournament 2000
    Group Phase 12000
    Quarter-Finals 20000
    Semi-Finals 30000
    Bronze medal match 35000
    Final 50000

    If a match contains a European team playing a non-European team, points are counted normally.

    For example: World Cup 2010 Group Phase, Angola-Serbia 44-94
    Serbia gets 10,000 for playing + 20,000 for winning + 7,000 bonus points + 101*94 points scored - 100*44 points conceded = 42,094 points
    For the same competition stage: France-Spain 72-66 : France:37,672, Spain: 16,466
    For the Olympic Games Final: USA-Spain 107-100 : Spain got 59,400 points despite losing, because of the +50,000 bonus

    A team's coefficient for one year is the average points that team collected from the matches they played in that particular year.

    2010-2013 Coefficients
    Last edited by nikosextra; 10-06-2013, 08:48 PM.

  • #2
    Definately the rankings should be re-done Some great ideas imo, however I'd love a system where for example, the number of points would also depend on the opponents ranking as well, meaning that winning vs. Qatar brings less points as losing vs. USA... or simmilar.
    Originally posted by Jon_Koncak
    That's funny shit.I cant believe there are sports fans thinking like it.It's like Federer losing to random Japanese player in round 1 of French Open but tournament director stepping in and saying "hey it was a fluke win who wants to watch a random Japanese guy in next round,Federer qualifies"

    Comment


    • #3
      Great job!

      Originally posted by Joško Poljak Fan View Post
      Definately the rankings should be re-done Some great ideas imo, however I'd love a system where for example, the number of points would also depend on the opponents ranking as well, meaning that winning vs. Qatar brings less points as losing vs. USA... or simmilar.
      I like this idea. A win by 50 against Lichtenstein shouldn't count more then a win against Spain by 2 IMO.
      My homage to The heroes:
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fOFlzU14Ivs

      Comment


      • #4
        It usually won't, since you are probably going to meet Liechtenstein in Eurobasket Qualification A, while Spain in the final tournament, so you get to have bigger bonuses. For example, Austria's win against Luxembourg this year (with a 41 pt margin) gave roughly the same points as losing a top-12 match.

        And this is generally the case; losing high-profile matches almost guarantees your average is not hurt much.
        See 2012 for example: The Greek failure in the pre-quals was enough to guarantee them more points than every Eurobasket qualifying team, except those with a perfect record. Therefore, a team is rewarded for taking part in more difficult competitions, as long as they have justified their place there.

        A system that works with relative strengths is the ELO Ranking, but it has the disadvantage that it counts all matches since the start of time and teams' positions are much more "stable". This would not have worked well if the ranking was used to decide seeds or award wildcards for example.

        Comment


        • #5
          I 'm not really sure if anyone's interested, but what the heck?

          I updated the ranking with this year's Eurobasket qualifiers and the World Cup. So pretty much, 8 more matches to go until the final ranking. The top3 remains the same, but Lithuania is closing in on France. Russia is on a free fall while Bosnia and Latvia are going up.

          Comment


          • #6
            Final rankings after World Cup 2014. WC2010 results are now discarded.

            Comment


            • #7
              An excellent ranking I prefer the standards and timeline to the actual FIBA
              Pistons: 2021-22 Let the Motorcade begin!!

              Bronze medal 2013 Eurobasket prediction Game.

              Comment


              • #8
                Here is a mock draw using my coefficients to determine pots and following FIBA's draw rules regarding hosts, co-hosts and draw order.

                Procedure
                1. Teams ranked according to their coefficients and divided into 6 pots (1-6) of 4 teams
                2. Hosts and Co-hosts France: Pot 1 (Finland: Pot 4), Croatia: Pot 2 (Slovenia: Pot 1), Latvia: Pot 3 (Estonia: Pot 6) & Germany: Pot 3 (Turkey: Pot 4)
                3. POT 1: France drawn first (Group A), the rest randomly drawn
                4. POT 2: Croatia paired with Slovenia (Group D), the rest randomly drawn
                5. POT 3: Latvia & Germany drawn first in Groups B & C, the rest randomly drawn
                6. POT 4: Turkey paired with Germany (Group C), Finland paired with France (Group A), the rest randomly drawn
                7. POT 5: All randomly drawn
                8. POT 6: Estonia paired with Latvia (Group B), the rest randomly drawn



                Since FIBA is changing their competition formats and cycles, I'm going to make some changes and come up with a new coefficient-system, under the same general guidelines.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Nice and fair draw. But FIBA wants weak groups so that strong countries can eliminate each other and weak countries can reach far. Hence grow the game of basketball.
                  PAO EUROPEAN CHAMPION 1996 - 2000 - 2002 - 2007 - 2009 - 2011

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Update after Eurobasket 2015 final results.
                    Question: Does anyone know when the qualifiers for EB2017 will start and with what system? I couldn't find anything, so the countries that did not qualify for EB2015 have their 2014 result copied in 2015.
                    Note: Yes, I know. It's weird that Spain won the Cup but they were overtaken by 3rd France. But my system punishes Spain a lot for those 2 losses in the first phase. Probably in next editions I will lower the bonus for those games or increase the bonus for knock-out games.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      How many years does your ranking calculation table go back to ? For example did you start from 1990 or even earlier ?
                      Lithuania

                      Olympic Games: Bronze 1992-1996-2000.
                      FIBA World Championship : Bronze 2010.
                      FIBA EuroBasket : Gold 1937-1939-2003. Silver 1995-2013-2015. Bronze 2007.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        If you read the first post you will more or less understand it. Only the last four seasons count towards the coefficient, reducing in effect as you go back in time.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by nikosextra View Post
                          If you read the first post you will more or less understand it. Only the last four seasons count towards the coefficient, reducing in effect as you go back in time.
                          I understand the system but what was the year you started the count. The oldest one I see is 2010.
                          Lithuania

                          Olympic Games: Bronze 1992-1996-2000.
                          FIBA World Championship : Bronze 2010.
                          FIBA EuroBasket : Gold 1937-1939-2003. Silver 1995-2013-2015. Bronze 2007.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Yes, 2010 is the first year I calculated, since my first ranking was posted in 2013. If you are interested, I could maybe do a calculation of previous years and see what I come up with, when I have some free time (say Christmas holiday)

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by nikosextra View Post
                              Yes, 2010 is the first year I calculated, since my first ranking was posted in 2013. If you are interested, I could maybe do a calculation of previous years and see what I come up with, when I have some free time (say Christmas holiday)
                              Yeh. Nice work keep it up .
                              Lithuania

                              Olympic Games: Bronze 1992-1996-2000.
                              FIBA World Championship : Bronze 2010.
                              FIBA EuroBasket : Gold 1937-1939-2003. Silver 1995-2013-2015. Bronze 2007.

                              Comment

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