Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 32

Thread: European NT Coefficient Ranking

  1. #1
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2013
    Posts
    33
    Country: Greece

    Default European NT Coefficient Ranking

    I hope this is a correct location for this thread.

    Introduction
    I think there is a general consensus in this forum and among most basketball fans that the FIBA World Ranking does not depict the actual strength of most teams in the world, especially in Europe, where many good teams fail to qualifyfor big tournaments and end up too low in the table.

    Inspired by UEFA national teams coefficients, I tried to come up with a new formula of providing the ranking for European national teams. The general rules of my ranking are:
    • Coefficients are counted during a 4 year cycle. So the current coefficient is the outcome of the results in the years 2010-2013.
    • Older results tend to count less towrads the final coefficient. 2010 results are multiplied by 10%, 2011 by 20%, 2012 by 30% and 2013 by 40%. For the next coefficients ('11-'14) 2010 results will not count at all, the rest will be lowered by 10% and 2014 results will be multiplied by 40%.
    • Matches counted consist of: World Cup, Olympics, pre-qualifying for the Olympics, Eurobasket, Eurobasket qualification (all phases)
    • According to the strength of the competition and of the particular stage of the competition the match was part of, different bonus are awarded to both teams.
    • Points scored and conceded also count (a lesser amount)


    The only exception to the above was the Additional Qualifying Round for Eurobasket 2011, which was not counted. All the other matches played were counted (World Cup 2011, Eurobasket 2011 Qualification, Eurobasket 2011, pre-qualifying for the Olympics and the Olympic tournament 2012, Eurobasket 2013 Qualification, Eurobasket 2013 and Eurobasket 2015 Qualification A). In the parentheses above, different colours are used for the different years those matches were played (so, a different weight was applied to them).
    For 2010-2011, teams that participated in the now defunct Division B, were awarded a base coefficient of 5000.
    Teams that did not participate in any competition for a particular year, did not earn any points.
    In the case of Slovenia 2012, when they played no games because they had auto-qualified for the Eurobasket as hosts, but had not qualified for the Olympics, their 2011 coefficient was also applied to 2012.

    Points awarded
    For every match, both teams get 10,000 points for playing. The winner gets an extra 20,000 points. For every point scored, 101 points are added. For every point conceded, 100 points are deducted. There are no draws (overtime result is the only one counted).

    Bonus points are awarded to both teams, depending of the competition and the stage of the competition.
    Eurobasket
    Qualification A Groups -10000
    Qualification A Play-offs 0
    Qualification 0
    Group Phase match 5000
    Top-12 10000
    QF 15000
    5th-8th place matches 10000
    SF 20000
    3rd place Final 25000
    Final 30000

    World Cup
    Group Phase match 7000
    Eighth Finals 15000
    Quarter-Finals 20000
    5th-8th place matches 12000
    Semi-Finals 30000
    3rd place Final 35000
    Final 50000

    Olympics
    Pre-Qualifying Tournament 2000
    Group Phase 12000
    Quarter-Finals 20000
    Semi-Finals 30000
    Bronze medal match 35000
    Final 50000

    If a match contains a European team playing a non-European team, points are counted normally.

    For example: World Cup 2010 Group Phase, Angola-Serbia 44-94
    Serbia gets 10,000 for playing + 20,000 for winning + 7,000 bonus points + 101*94 points scored - 100*44 points conceded = 42,094 points
    For the same competition stage: France-Spain 72-66 : France:37,672, Spain: 16,466
    For the Olympic Games Final: USA-Spain 107-100 : Spain got 59,400 points despite losing, because of the +50,000 bonus

    A team's coefficient for one year is the average points that team collected from the matches they played in that particular year.

    2010-2013 Coefficients
    Last edited by nikosextra; 10-06-2013 at 08:48 PM.

  2. #2
    Moderator
    Join Date
    Sep 2003
    Location
    Ljubljana
    Posts
    12,734
    Country: Slovenia

    Default

    Definately the rankings should be re-done Some great ideas imo, however I'd love a system where for example, the number of points would also depend on the opponents ranking as well, meaning that winning vs. Qatar brings less points as losing vs. USA... or simmilar.

  3. #3
    Senior Member Alyosha12's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Posts
    2,235

    Default

    Great job!

    Quote Originally Posted by Joško Poljak Fan View Post
    Definately the rankings should be re-done Some great ideas imo, however I'd love a system where for example, the number of points would also depend on the opponents ranking as well, meaning that winning vs. Qatar brings less points as losing vs. USA... or simmilar.
    I like this idea. A win by 50 against Lichtenstein shouldn't count more then a win against Spain by 2 IMO.

  4. #4
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2013
    Posts
    33
    Country: Greece

    Default

    It usually won't, since you are probably going to meet Liechtenstein in Eurobasket Qualification A, while Spain in the final tournament, so you get to have bigger bonuses. For example, Austria's win against Luxembourg this year (with a 41 pt margin) gave roughly the same points as losing a top-12 match.

    And this is generally the case; losing high-profile matches almost guarantees your average is not hurt much.
    See 2012 for example: The Greek failure in the pre-quals was enough to guarantee them more points than every Eurobasket qualifying team, except those with a perfect record. Therefore, a team is rewarded for taking part in more difficult competitions, as long as they have justified their place there.

    A system that works with relative strengths is the ELO Ranking, but it has the disadvantage that it counts all matches since the start of time and teams' positions are much more "stable". This would not have worked well if the ranking was used to decide seeds or award wildcards for example.

  5. #5
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2013
    Posts
    33
    Country: Greece

    Default

    I 'm not really sure if anyone's interested, but what the heck?

    I updated the ranking with this year's Eurobasket qualifiers and the World Cup. So pretty much, 8 more matches to go until the final ranking. The top3 remains the same, but Lithuania is closing in on France. Russia is on a free fall while Bosnia and Latvia are going up.


  6. #6
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2013
    Posts
    33
    Country: Greece

    Default

    Final rankings after World Cup 2014. WC2010 results are now discarded.


  7. #7
    Senior Member Dtown's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    Metro Detroit, MI
    Posts
    3,499
    Country: United States

    Default

    An excellent ranking I prefer the standards and timeline to the actual FIBA
    Pistons: 2018-2019 In the middle of nowhere

    Bronze medal 2013 Eurobasket prediction Game.

  8. #8
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2013
    Posts
    33
    Country: Greece

    Default

    Here is a mock draw using my coefficients to determine pots and following FIBA's draw rules regarding hosts, co-hosts and draw order.

    Procedure
    1. Teams ranked according to their coefficients and divided into 6 pots (1-6) of 4 teams
    2. Hosts and Co-hosts France: Pot 1 (Finland: Pot 4), Croatia: Pot 2 (Slovenia: Pot 1), Latvia: Pot 3 (Estonia: Pot 6) & Germany: Pot 3 (Turkey: Pot 4)
    3. POT 1: France drawn first (Group A), the rest randomly drawn
    4. POT 2: Croatia paired with Slovenia (Group D), the rest randomly drawn
    5. POT 3: Latvia & Germany drawn first in Groups B & C, the rest randomly drawn
    6. POT 4: Turkey paired with Germany (Group C), Finland paired with France (Group A), the rest randomly drawn
    7. POT 5: All randomly drawn
    8. POT 6: Estonia paired with Latvia (Group B), the rest randomly drawn



    Since FIBA is changing their competition formats and cycles, I'm going to make some changes and come up with a new coefficient-system, under the same general guidelines.

  9. #9
    Senior Member Victorious's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    3,469
    Country: Netherlands

    Default

    Nice and fair draw. But FIBA wants weak groups so that strong countries can eliminate each other and weak countries can reach far. Hence grow the game of basketball.
    PAO EUROPEAN CHAMPION 1996 - 2000 - 2002 - 2007 - 2009 - 2011

  10. #10
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2013
    Posts
    33
    Country: Greece

    Default

    Update after Eurobasket 2015 final results.
    Question: Does anyone know when the qualifiers for EB2017 will start and with what system? I couldn't find anything, so the countries that did not qualify for EB2015 have their 2014 result copied in 2015.
    Note: Yes, I know. It's weird that Spain won the Cup but they were overtaken by 3rd France. But my system punishes Spain a lot for those 2 losses in the first phase. Probably in next editions I will lower the bonus for those games or increase the bonus for knock-out games.


  11. #11
    Senior Member Modis's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2015
    Location
    Lithuania
    Posts
    818
    Country: Lithuania

    Default

    How many years does your ranking calculation table go back to ? For example did you start from 1990 or even earlier ?
    Lithuania

    Olympic Games: Bronze 1992-1996-2000.
    FIBA World Championship : Bronze 2010.
    FIBA EuroBasket : Gold 1937-1939-2003. Silver 1995-2013-2015. Bronze 2007.

  12. #12
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2013
    Posts
    33
    Country: Greece

    Default

    If you read the first post you will more or less understand it. Only the last four seasons count towards the coefficient, reducing in effect as you go back in time.

  13. #13
    Senior Member Modis's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2015
    Location
    Lithuania
    Posts
    818
    Country: Lithuania

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by nikosextra View Post
    If you read the first post you will more or less understand it. Only the last four seasons count towards the coefficient, reducing in effect as you go back in time.
    I understand the system but what was the year you started the count. The oldest one I see is 2010.
    Lithuania

    Olympic Games: Bronze 1992-1996-2000.
    FIBA World Championship : Bronze 2010.
    FIBA EuroBasket : Gold 1937-1939-2003. Silver 1995-2013-2015. Bronze 2007.

  14. #14
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2013
    Posts
    33
    Country: Greece

    Default

    Yes, 2010 is the first year I calculated, since my first ranking was posted in 2013. If you are interested, I could maybe do a calculation of previous years and see what I come up with, when I have some free time (say Christmas holiday)

  15. #15
    Senior Member Modis's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2015
    Location
    Lithuania
    Posts
    818
    Country: Lithuania

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by nikosextra View Post
    Yes, 2010 is the first year I calculated, since my first ranking was posted in 2013. If you are interested, I could maybe do a calculation of previous years and see what I come up with, when I have some free time (say Christmas holiday)
    Yeh. Nice work keep it up .
    Lithuania

    Olympic Games: Bronze 1992-1996-2000.
    FIBA World Championship : Bronze 2010.
    FIBA EuroBasket : Gold 1937-1939-2003. Silver 1995-2013-2015. Bronze 2007.

  16. #16
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2013
    Posts
    33
    Country: Greece

    Default

    Thanks for the feedback! I appreciate it.

  17. #17
    Senior Member Hepcat's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    Toronto
    Posts
    3,148
    Country: Canada

    Exclamation

    Good stuff! I'll be interested in seeing this table again after the Olympics.


  18. #18
    Junior Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Posts
    5
    Country: Israel

    Default

    Any update after Eurobasket 2017 Qualifying?

  19. #19
    Senior Member Modis's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2015
    Location
    Lithuania
    Posts
    818
    Country: Lithuania

    Default

    Any Update after 2016 Olympics.
    Lithuania

    Olympic Games: Bronze 1992-1996-2000.
    FIBA World Championship : Bronze 2010.
    FIBA EuroBasket : Gold 1937-1939-2003. Silver 1995-2013-2015. Bronze 2007.

  20. #20
    Senior Member judasmartel's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2014
    Posts
    4,182
    Country: Philippines

    Default

    @OP

    I think the ranking points are too big, like, 100k points for a game? Maybe divide everything by a power of 10 to make it less intimidating? Other than that, I think it's a good idea to adopt a ranking system similar to UEFA or FIFA.

    What are your thoughts about the Elo Rating System with points scored in a game taken into account? One common criticism of the Elo is that it doesn't care whether you lost by 1 or by 50, if you lost, you lost, period.
    Quote Originally Posted by gideon View Post
    Not sure why all on here got salty when the Serbian coach said Gilas lacked any real quality. I mean isn't that glaringly obvious.

Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •