NLB Adriatic League 2012/2013.

[Mindozas]

yes

euroleague changed rules.

2 clubs directly from aba league and 1 in qualyfiers go to EL from aba league. for now only chaces for slovenian or croatian club is is that cedevita or olimpija qualyify to FF and win aba league

Oh, it got me confused. So is it top 3 places from regular season or after final4 or some other system like top2 from regular and final4 winner? Previosuly I thought it's regular season, which will decide EL places

[pohani komarac]

yes, first 3 from regular season

but with exception if 4th or 3rd winns aba league then 4th and first in egular season go directly while 2nd from regular season moves to 3rd place

not complicated as it looks

[Mindozas]

yes, first 3 from regular season

but with exception if 4th or 3rd winns aba league then 4th and first in egular season go directly while 2nd from regular season moves to 3rd place

not complicated as it looks

Now I've got it thnx. It'll be interesting

[Joško Poljak Fan]

Let me guess, he won't get punished for this?

He actually got 5000 € fine and is prohibited to visit games for the next 3 months.

I didn't believe they'd really go for it.

[rikhardur]

He actually got 5000 € fine and is prohibited to visit games for the next 3 months.

I didn't believe they'd really go for it.

Thank goodness

[AmonRA]

Nelson

[Joško Poljak Fan]

This round was deadly.

Olimpija back in the game by beating Igokea, with two 22 years olds and 2 20 years old scoring 64 and Ranniko adding 5.
Cedevita barely pulling it off against Zadar with a game winning 3pointer
Partizan beaten by Radnički, that definately complicated things and increased likely combinations

Igokea, nevermind I didn't find their game anything special once more, is the most stable and one of the most experienced teams in the league with only theoretical chances to drop out of F4, while hosting Cedevita, Zadar, Szolnok, Krka and visiting Partizan, Skopje and Cibona their 1st place after the regular season isn't as sure bet as it seemed before this week.
key game: hosting Szolnoki, as only if they manage to lose that one, their F4 appearance would come into consideration
Zvezda could contribute to Igokeas worries about staying at the top as they're having comparably easy competitors abroad Szolnoki, Krka, Široki, hosting respectable opponents Partizan, Budućnost, Cibona where they've got better home court chances to prevail, with an interesting last round against Radnićki in Kragujevac
Key game: always the derby
Partizan has the deadliest schedule, hosting Split, Szolniki or maybee even visiting Skopje sure doesn't sound that terrible, but on the other hand there are Olimpija and Igokea at home and Cedevita and Zvezda abroad, at the same moment all those 4 teams might pursuit the win desperately.
Key game: Cedevita, beat them and get rid of main competitor
Budućnost, Radnički and Cedevita are all with 11-8 at this moment,
Montenegrians are visiting Cibona and Zadar hosting Široki, Split while they've got a terrible ending visiting Radnički in 23th round and last two visiting Zvezda and hosting Olimpija. Still playing in eurocup for 3 more rounds definately isn't in their favour either.
Radnički is another team able to out-gun anyone, yet as we say "that stick has two ends", visiting injured flewed Krka shouldn't be much of an obstacle, they can go past Cibona and Široki in the next two rounds, 23th round as mentioned before that game vs. their competitor for 4th place in Budućnost, two always painful visits in Dalmatia and hosting Zvezda for the grand finale.
And as a grand surprise (that made me believe it was actualy worth checking all these schedules right now ) Cedevita, as the richest yet most dissapointing of the competition can actualy still pass through. Not only "can" since they're visiting 3 comparably arguably easiest teams to visit in the league this season Szolnoki, Krka, Široki, quite a bit tougher visit to Aleksandrovac and hosting Skopje, Cibona and Partizan, with some consistency (which isn't something to describe them this season at all to be honest) they're in damn good position to pass through to F4 unless they slip big time, meaning they lose to somebody other than Partizan or Igokea... while their direct competitors as Radnićki and Budućnost have a whole slaughter in front of them. Key game: either Igokea or Partizan, just winning one of those
As much as Olimpija is perfectly able to beat Partizan and Budućnost abroad, they might as well lose to Široki at home at the same time, they're also playing Skopje, Szolniki and Cibona abroad and hosting Krka, which makes for only 2 home games untill the end of the regular season... and Krka... well, they obviously are saving all their strenght for our derby, as ussual. And even perfect score might not be enough considering the schedule Cedevita has. Key game: already happened, now only God and the best possible version of Blažič (version which actualy is pretty God-like) 7 games in a row can help us.
Skopje is basicaly hosting 4 top dogs and visiting Krka, Szolnoki and hosting Zadar so I think their chances of getting to F4 are about as realistic as Igokea falling out of it. Nevertheless this is far better "1st appearance" in the league as I've expected.


This said, Igokea is in unless they completely collapse with 5 losses or so, which won't happen, losing the no.1 might, Zvezda could lose the derby, but I find it extremely unlikely they'd suddenly lose to both Bud and Rad as well to fall through, Partizan's chances are noticably smaller yet one of Bud/Rad would need some good upsets to really compromise their F4 appearance and Cedevita... well... somehow... pulls it through... obviously. Radnički might oustcore more of their opponents than I expect. I like Budućnost much more, to be honest. Blažič might score 30 per average for Olimpija. Skopje might sign MekKalebovski. By every sentence following being less likely to occur.

[Carick235]

Excellent analysis JPF.

I can't see Red Star losing that second position, only if Partizan beat us with +15 (first match +14 for us), but that's not quite possible considering how they play whole season, and also they are totally different team away than home so i expect minimum 2-3 more defeats.

Igokea really has interesting schedule, if Cedevita defeat them at home in the next round who knows how will they react to that, and after that Zadar and MZT could benefit from it.

[Carick235]

Lol Serbo-Montenegrin domination, just Budućnost and Radnički to switch positions and we will have all-Serbian final four.

[Joško Poljak Fan]

Igokea is obviously in a bad streak, if we can claim two consecutive losses as such. Cedevita is now by far closest to the F4, much more than what one would imagine at the first glance looking at standings. Radnićki and Budućnost will combined assemble something like 3-4 losses untill the end of the competition imo.
Budućnost might have a chance to f.e. lose against Zvezda yet manage to surpass Olimpija, Croatian club and beat Radnički in a direct duel, yet if Cedevita loses only to partizan they're better in a direct duel with two wins, while if Radnički would somehow manage to beat Montenegrians and Dalmatians and lose vs. Zvezda Cedevita has better point difference in direct duels.
Unless Cedevita slips hard against one, potentialy even two of their opponents beside Partizan upseting would be needed, they're at F4. Partizan slipping out of F4 wth some bad streak against some of the top teams, would be more likely to happen than Cedevita getting there.

Basicaly apart from pretty unexpected scenarios, the fight for 5th place and last eurocup spot will go on. Olimpija so far has the upper hand against both Radnički and Budućnost, yet is one win behing and visiting Podgorica last round in a direct duel that might seal that very last eurocup spot.

[Carick235]

Igokea is obviously in a bad streak, if we can claim two consecutive losses as such. Cedevita is now by far closest to the F4, much more than what one would imagine at the first glance looking at standings. Radnićki and Budućnost will combined assemble something like 3-4 losses untill the end of the competition imo.
Budućnost might have a chance to f.e. lose against Zvezda yet manage to surpass Olimpija, Croatian club and beat Radnički in a direct duel, yet if Cedevita loses only to partizan they're better in a direct duel with two wins, while if Radnički would somehow manage to beat Montenegrians and Dalmatians and lose vs. Zvezda Cedevita has better point difference in direct duels.
Unless Cedevita slips hard against one, potentialy even two of their opponents beside Partizan upseting would be needed, they're at F4. Partizan slipping out of F4 wth some bad streak against some of the top teams, would be more likely to happen than Cedevita getting there.

Basicaly apart from pretty unexpected scenarios, the fight for 5th place and last eurocup spot will go on. Olimpija so far has the upper hand against both Radnički and Budućnost, yet is one win behing and visiting Podgorica last round in a direct duel that might seal that very last eurocup spot.

Olimpija definitely doesn't have upper hand for fifth place since it has -1 to those 3 teams (i know they won both matches against Radnički), and plus they play their match against Budućnost in Podgorica, and before that they have match in Pionir against Partizan, Olimpija has 40% chance to reach that 5th place, but as you say that last match will probably be decisive and Budućnost can be extremely tough opponent at home.

As for Cedevita, you might be right on that since they have much easier schedule (plus direct dules condition) than other two teams, i would give them 60% chance for F4, but Cedevita, Budućnost and Radnički have capacity to defeat everyone in the last six rounds and they can slip somewhere where you don't expect it.

All in all this season is going as expected, the fight for euro spots is reaching its peak, simple all positions from 1-7 are still open.

[Bosnian 23]

Pretty ignorant... igokea will always carry the BiH flag next to their name on the scoresheet no matter what imaginary borders lie within the country, it's a club playing in Bosna i Hercegovina, deal with it.

[Carick235]

Pretty ignorant... igokea will always carry the BiH flag next to their name on the scoresheet no matter what imaginary borders lie within the country, it's a club playing in Bosna i Hercegovina, deal with it.

Pretty ignorant is to believe that those are imaginary borders, beside borders we know very good of other things that separate people in Republika Srpska and Federation, and i didn't talk about BiH anywhere, i said Serbian because those are Serbs in Bosnia like it or not.

[Bosnian 23]

Pretty ignorant is to believe that those are imaginary borders, beside borders we know very good of other things that separate people in Republika Srpska and Federation, and i didn't talk about BiH anywhere, i said Serbian because those are Serbs in Bosnia like it or not.

Key phrase: Serbs in Bosnia. They may be Serb, but they are playing for a club which home is Bosnia.

[Carick235]

Key phrase: Serbs in Bosnia. They may be Serb, but they are playing for a club which home is Bosnia.

What's your problem, of course it's Serbian when it's from place with big Serb majority, i didn't said anywhere it's not from Bosnia but it's from Republika Srpska which is like US state (because BiH is made on US model). You are too sensitive on everything, i wont talk on this.