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  • Well, at the dawn of 20's, it's interesting to track down how we (and I) projected 10's decade ago.

    Some projections were completely spot on. I will only name the ones that I really missed with:

    - Argentina I think quite surprised and didn't collapse as people expected. Got to semis in OG 2012, snatched medals in 2019 WC.
    - Croatia didn't become true contender as projected. Some solid performances as in 2016 OG and else-where, but overall it didn't happen.
    - I admit my projection on Lithuania starting to contend at mid 10's was out of hand. I expected too much from prime JV and D-Mo (injury killed his career), also hoped that Kleiza will be a long timer, but specially misinterpreted some of our guard prospects early in 10's who never prevailed.
    - Also I think we missed Slovenia as champs, that came as surprise and general trend that such teams as Czech Rep, Belgium, Macedonia will rise (that mid section teams increasing quality) even if those never snatched medals itself.

    Spot on projections on USA, Greece, Spain, France.

    Heading to 20's, I would make couple points obviously:

    - USA likely will suffer from the lack of true superstars, in comparison with Kobe, James, Durant, but will be able to snatch their titles in most if not all tournaments, except maybe some WC.
    - Canada rises as basketball farm with funny talent. Medals possibility yet questionable because of ability to gather all pieces.
    - Australia also among leading talent farms, should remain among contenders.
    - Serbia will have even more complete decade, contending all along.
    - France will continue to contend and I think has the best prospects upside from European NTs.
    - Spain will remain a contender, yet possibly a bit less almighty (I said exactly the same 10 years ago )
    - Lithuania will have wealthier decade talent wise, yet it will be extremely difficult to snatch three medal collections as we usually do in a decade. I expect to realistically contend in at least one of Olympics, as we never did in 10's.
    - Greece future, despite Giannis, looks questionable, just as 10 years ago, or even worse, IMO.
    - Slovenia won't have enough other than super Doncic most likely.
    - Turkey may be a dark horse with good you talent, but generally will still lack discipline and depth to become true contender.
    - Latvia might really rise high, as they have tons of talent, even though some of their current EL quality may get old and the depth may be in question.
    - I have no idea about Croatia. Big, Saric, Hezonja bunch didn't prevail as expected. They may add couple of pieces to that, but generally have no idea what to expect from them.
    Last edited by Straight forward; 05-06-2020, 08:44 AM.
    LTU NT will snatch Eurobasket 2029 title with this roster:

    Jokubaitis, Marciulionis, Laurencikas
    Indrusaitis, Brazdeikis, Rubstavicius
    Buzelis, Lelevicius
    Murauskas, Sirvydis
    Tubelis, Krivas

    Comment


    • I think it's pretty damn obvious that, apart from only Team USA who are favorites every single time, the other biggest contenders will be France, Spain, Serbia, Australia and, if they finally manage to gather all of their talent, Canada. Those are 6 national teams head and shoulders above every other nation in the world, at least talent wise. Not sure who the last two spots I'd give to - maybe to Greece and Lithuania, as they will continue in their own hard-nosed ways to make things hard for more talented squads. As for the others - you can probably flip a coin here and any guess would be as good as mine

      Comment


      • in 20s predictions

        Same teams will dominate Usa,Serbia,Spain,France and win most of the medals.

        Australia,Argentina,Lithuania as always with their team chemistry will be dangerous ones on good tournaments can get even some medal.

        Canada is and will stay hockey country.

        Underdogs one tournament story always will happen in sport when everything clicks on same time for one of the teams like Slovenia 2017 or Argentina 2019 did but that not sustainable .

        Doncic international career in 20s can look similiar to Nowitzky alone try to fight againts top international teams

        Giannis
        with Greece have better shot winning medals in 20s.

        Comment


        • winrar telecharger

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          Comment


          • Originally posted by Shawshank View Post
            in 20s predictions

            Same teams will dominate Usa,Serbia,Spain,France and win most of the medals.

            Australia,Argentina,Lithuania as always with their team chemistry will be dangerous ones on good tournaments can get even some medal.

            Canada is and will stay hockey country.

            Underdogs one tournament story always will happen in sport when everything clicks on same time for one of the teams like Slovenia 2017 or Argentina 2019 did but that not sustainable .

            Doncic international career in 20s can look similiar to Nowitzky alone try to fight againts top international teams

            Giannis
            with Greece have better shot winning medals in 20s.

            Bold prediction on Canada.
            Canada had 22 players to play in the NBA this season (up from 12-14 last year) with more coming up. More and more are penetrating the highest ranks in Europe every year as well. And to top it off Canada finally has a capable coach and seemly good direction from the grass roots on up to the senior team. Basketball may now be more popular than hockey among the younger demographics (at least the participation levels are way, way higher). The Raptors winning the championship is just one more log on the fire (a big one).

            Canada is now a threat to put the 2nd most talented roster into any tournament for easily the next 10 years. But will it? We will just have to wait and see. Next year is already not looking so good.

            But it seems naive to be so dismissive. The sheer volume of talent alone is enough. When there is 30-40 NBA players in the pool, but only half show up - its should still easily be a medal threat.

            Comment


            • mojo13, don't mind it. Shawshank, is a solid poster, but have that grumpy chronic tendency to purify tradition Not to treat Canada as an absolute upcoming power now is absolute ignorance. It's by far the biggest talent farm after USA and the only issues are player's dedication. And when I wrote that medals are at risk, I pretty much had contending in my mind. If Canada would grab the bigger part of their talent for a tournament, all they need is our "Sireika" or any other dude who wouldn't be direct obstacle as a coach for Canada to contend. And I think the tendency will be even more ridiculous in the mid of 20s as Canada keeps providing absolutely elite players NBA wise.
              LTU NT will snatch Eurobasket 2029 title with this roster:

              Jokubaitis, Marciulionis, Laurencikas
              Indrusaitis, Brazdeikis, Rubstavicius
              Buzelis, Lelevicius
              Murauskas, Sirvydis
              Tubelis, Krivas

              Comment


              • Originally posted by mojo13 View Post
                Bold prediction on Canada.
                Canada had 22 players to play in the NBA this season (up from 12-14 last year) with more coming up. More and more are penetrating the highest ranks in Europe every year as well. And to top it off Canada finally has a capable coach and seemly good direction from the grass roots on up to the senior team. Basketball may now be more popular than hockey among the younger demographics (at least the participation levels are way, way higher). The Raptors winning the championship is just one more log on the fire (a big one).

                Canada is now a threat to put the 2nd most talented roster into any tournament for easily the next 10 years. But will it? We will just have to wait and see. Next year is already not looking so good.

                But it seems naive to be so dismissive. The sheer volume of talent alone is enough. When there is 30-40 NBA players in the pool, but only half show up - its should still easily be a medal threat.

                its called prediction maybe im wrong we will see.I dont see Canada becoming top5 team in world in 20s.Can get one medal somewhere in decade,but i dont see them as favorites.

                Usa have 300 nba players,but even they when they send players not from top40 have problems winning against well rounded teams with players that play together for 5-7 summers. Nba players needs time to adapt to win in fiba competions, diffrent rules,diffrent contact allowence and so on.I can see Canada bring usa 2019 tallent team one day,but even thats big IF seeing how those players played for NT in last 5 years.

                im judging most of things by achievements,not theory what your team can possibly can bring or what level can achieve.Knowing some usa/canada mentality your NT most likely gonna bring good nba tallent team once in 4 years in Olympic summer.All others summers most likely nba youngsters or euro canadians players will play.+ 2021 olympic summer is not good news for teams who has alot nba players because of pandemic.

                When i will see diffrent culture in Canadian NT than we can discuss,right now its only theories.You can have very tallented team,but to win medal it takes more than just tallent in those short 2 weeks tournaments. I dont see in Canada 4-5 same nba players building something in NT like for example Australias nba players were doing since 2012.

                Its not clubs where teams working together for 8 months to built chemistry,its at best 1,5 month and to really built something usually it takes more than one summer .

                Usually teams that are together for 3+ summers builts chemistry and have tallent wins. Even top teams who won medals when generation of players changes they need 2-3 tournaments to regroup and built their own new chemistry to go back on winning ways.

                NT competions is not who has best 20 men tallent overall.Its more about who can bring 8 high quality main players to represent their nation and built strong team chemistry that plays together.

                My prediction is solely on results of future fiba tournaments in 20s,not who will have most nba players in 20s. Maybe watching 20s decade Canada NT will change my mind,but today this is how i feel about Canada NT.
                Last edited by Shawshank; 07-12-2020, 03:04 PM.

                Comment


                • If we pointed out Canada, as a new international powerhouse, we also shouldn't sleep on new, possibly absolutely dominant, France's generation.

                  Frank Ntilikina (21yo) was 8th pick. He may not pan out into a super star, but he will be an important piece for France as NT goes. Sekou Doumbouya (19yo) was 15th pick, athletic modern combo forward who can stretch the floor and play D. That's just a scratch. Crazy things coming in this years 2020 drafts. Killian Hayes, 18yo PG prodigy, is projected as TOP 5 NBA draft pick by many sources. I think I didn't see him lower than TOP 10 and I see him as a special player. He really can be super good. We are talking about the guy who has an upside of true NBA star as a guard. I think he can be a different maker for France as Parker was. Another 19yo PG Théo Maledon is also compared to Parker with a reason. He is projected as 15th pick this year. Some even have him as more talented than Killian Hayes. He's a stud. To put it short, France most likely have 2 best young international point guards prospects and plus there's 8th pick Ntilikina (I treat him less talented than both Hayes and Maledon). It's pretty crazy to have thess 4 players who will likely end as TOP 15 picks in few years stretch. I don't think any European NT ever produced such record.

                  I won't even mention plenty of other France's NBA players and drafted players recently. There's a chance that France will have 4 players drafted this year as Malcolm Cazalon and Matthieu GAUZIN have their cases to be in the second round most likely.

                  And here we can add than NBA star Gobert is 28 and Fournier still 27. The latter as one of the keys can still stick around for 6-7 years.

                  In my opinion this super talented new core of France can really mess thing up and we should start to learn Killian Hayes name. France will have tons of guard power and that's the path for dominance.
                  LTU NT will snatch Eurobasket 2029 title with this roster:

                  Jokubaitis, Marciulionis, Laurencikas
                  Indrusaitis, Brazdeikis, Rubstavicius
                  Buzelis, Lelevicius
                  Murauskas, Sirvydis
                  Tubelis, Krivas

                  Comment


                  • France was always a semi final team but it had never the chemistry to build a dominant roster thats also because of the lack of a solid play maker after Parker. Albicy Ntilikina also Maledon or Begarin cant fill that role. A second problem also nowadays is the lack of solid forwards so that they chocke offensively. The only guy who can change it is Killian Hayes. If he works hard he can really fill the gap of Tony Parker. Well see about that.

                    The big rotation has also a luxury problem too. Besides Gobert, there will be guys like Moussa Diabatte, Poirriere etc but most of the guys are also one way player so that France is forced to let its scorers create. I dont think that it will be different in the future. I dont see the chemistry to dominate any high level basketball country. They will be among the semi final candidates though like Serbia and Spain. The gap is getting smaller and smaller between the top 10 European countries though.

                    The biggest fall will be experienced by Greece. Giannis wont change much in this case since his style doesnt fit European basketball at all. The problem will be to compensate the losses of Calathes and later Sloukas. The center problem remains which can be compensated by Giannis on the defensive end but it wont be enough. For me a certain candidate to fall out of the top 10.

                    In Lithuanias case it is imminent to find a scorer who can find solutions by himself in decisive moments. Grigonis isnt the guy who can fill the gap. A second point is a floor general who can let play the whole team. A couple of shooter wouldnt be bad either. The big rotation is one of the best in Europe thats for sure. There are candidates and hope but they still need time. I expect a slight decline in the rankings.

                    Would have said the same about Italy 1-2 years ago buuuut there are some very interesting guys in comming. The center problem remains and limits them though but with the scoring and play making potential they have let it be Mannion (a guy that I really love) Spagnolo, Penne or Casarin to name some names I consider them again as a very strong scoring team and one of the risers.

                    Czech republic is due to their chemistry and well balanced roster also one of the risers and they will keep their current position more or less. The advantage of playing together in a team with solid Euroleague/NBA addition will make them to a respectable team.

                    Germany and Croatia could never unlock their potential but both countries have very capable prospects. Especially Croatia has a astonishingly talented group of Bigs. The most important one is Roko Prkacin who could end up as a franchise player in the NBA. Perasovic and Tisma are also Mentionable names. Similar things could be said about Germanys big rotation but both countries need capable guards who can let the other parts play. Germany has reason to have some hope about it. Schröder is a nice piece for any roster but a piss poor decision maker. Lets wait for Bonga and Schoormann. Croatia doesnt seem to be able to find a promising guard prospect. Nevertheless both countries will rise.

                    Call me biased but Turkey is the last country I consider being among the top 10 in 2022. Being ranked on 15 right now a top 10 spot wont be far away in the next 2-3 years. Beside the biggest and ancient problem of having a capable play maker Turkey had big problems to compensate the losses of Enes Kanter and Ömer Asik. The last decade was a catastrophe and the change is still ongoing. Nevertheless also here is big hope. At least in the big rotation. The generation of 2002 and 2003 hosts 3 of the best international prospects leading by Adem Bona who is already considered as a safe border lottery pick in 2 years. Tremendous defensive upside right now. followed by Omer Yurtseven and Alperen Sengün who had a very good season with Bandirma in the first turkish league and BCL just being 17 years old. Tibet Gorener is the other guy which I want to emphasize. Like the Lithuanian talent Azuolas Tubelis hell play for the Wildcats but he is not nearly as ready as Tubelis and is probably going to be redshirted in order to gain some strength. Nevertheless one of the best [maybe the best] scoring big in his generation. His defensive upside can be assumed after he becomes physically ready. Considering to fill the play maker gab with Shane Larkin and the NBA tripple [Korkmaz, Osman, Ilyasova] a offensively very dangerous team.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Toruko View Post
                      France was always a semi final team but it had never the chemistry to build a dominant roster thats also because of the lack of a solid play maker after Parker. Albicy Ntilikina also Maledon or Begarin cant fill that role. A second problem also nowadays is the lack of solid forwards so that they chocke offensively. The only guy who can change it is Killian Hayes. If he works hard he can really fill the gap of Tony Parker. Well see about that.
                      Way too early to discredit or underrate Maledon. Extremely fundamentally sound PG. It's just that I don't see him as special as Hayes. But Hayes is absolute beast. Athleticism, quickness is at elite level, I mean he has insane strides and can get anywhere he wants, that's the trait of NBA star quality, he sees the floor impressively, he can control and change tempo, can exelerate any time he needs, he's super nifty, quick decision passer. He needs a bit of more drives to his right and some more right hand, but he's totally special and dirty prospect I think easily the best PG prospect since Rubio (well, I have Doncic from completely other dimension, he's not even prodigy, he's more like a miracle), IMO. So Maledon can only get less hype only because there's Hayes next to him. I don't know much about young France's bigs, that may be a problem. On other hand, they always have athleticism and Doumbouya is a stud. He's gonna be a boderline star in the NBA, IMO, if not actual star. In my opinion France should have much broader and talented guard rotation in 20's than they got in 10's and today it's the key. F.e. Ntilikina may have questionable offense and still need development, but he's a heck of guard. Imagine Hayes, Maledon, Ntilikina (crazy wingspan) at first three positions. That would be a lock down defensive line up, scary. BB culture and chemistry issues will remain as always, France will never be most disciplant team offensively, but with the tons of playmaking they gonna get, they may be European team to beat this decade.
                      LTU NT will snatch Eurobasket 2029 title with this roster:

                      Jokubaitis, Marciulionis, Laurencikas
                      Indrusaitis, Brazdeikis, Rubstavicius
                      Buzelis, Lelevicius
                      Murauskas, Sirvydis
                      Tubelis, Krivas

                      Comment


                      • In 20s situation should be similar ,except Israel could enjoy amongst 10 NT in the World ,Serbia ,Spain and France would probably descend,but not too much.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Nemanja95 View Post
                          In 20s situation should be similar ,except Israel could enjoy amongst 10 NT in the World ,Serbia ,Spain and France would probably descend,but not too much.
                          I found this whole sentence ridiculous and completely useless waste of words. Not disrespect though
                          LTU NT will snatch Eurobasket 2029 title with this roster:

                          Jokubaitis, Marciulionis, Laurencikas
                          Indrusaitis, Brazdeikis, Rubstavicius
                          Buzelis, Lelevicius
                          Murauskas, Sirvydis
                          Tubelis, Krivas

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Straight forward View Post
                            I found this whole sentence ridiculous and completely useless waste of words. Not disrespect though
                            I think he doesnt mean the the rankings but the strength of the teams. Spain will lose its dominance of the last decade thats sure. France will gain strength but not Spains last decade level, It will be difficult for Serbia to replace a Teodosic. If I got him correctly he has a valid point. The top 15-20 teams will come closer which makes Basketball more interesting.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Toruko View Post
                              I think he doesnt mean the the rankings but the strength of the teams. Spain will lose its dominance of the last decade thats sure. France will gain strength but not Spains last decade level, It will be difficult for Serbia to replace a Teodosic. If I got him correctly he has a valid point. The top 15-20 teams will come closer which makes Basketball more interesting.
                              Originally posted by Toruko View Post
                              I think he doesnt mean the the rankings but the strength of the teams. Spain will lose its dominance of the last decade thats sure. France will gain strength but not Spains last decade level, It will be difficult for Serbia to replace a Teodosic. If I got him correctly he has a valid point. The top 15-20 teams will come closer which makes Basketball more interesting.
                              The situation won't be similar because Canada has great chance to establish themselves as contenders. They where completely irrelevant in 10's and now it's roaring with potential. Spain will find it's ways. Rubio, Mirotic, Hernagomez bros will keep them high for another 5 years and they can add Garuba, Carlos Alocén, some other interesting prospects. I doubt they gonna decline much if any. If they will, it only shows that there will be changes. Australia might be even stronger as Australia, Canada, France lead in prospect power in recentyears, other than USA. Serbia will remain a contender, even if I also don't know new TEO. But there's such guys like Micic and plenty of depth + FIBA superstar Bogdanovic. I do project noteworthy if not substantial renaissance of Lithuanian basketball, the growth, bigger or lesser, is inevitable compared to 10's, IMO. So plenty of changes, IMO. But most radical should be Canada and maybe even France being able to compose absolutely elite rosters. I mean the rosters that could equally or almost equally match USA's Kemba/Mitchel backourt and overall talent nearly. It is specially true in Canada's case.
                              LTU NT will snatch Eurobasket 2029 title with this roster:

                              Jokubaitis, Marciulionis, Laurencikas
                              Indrusaitis, Brazdeikis, Rubstavicius
                              Buzelis, Lelevicius
                              Murauskas, Sirvydis
                              Tubelis, Krivas

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Straight forward View Post
                                The situation won't be similar because Canada has great chance to establish themselves as contenders. They where completely irrelevant in 10's and now it's roaring with potential. Spain will find it's ways. Rubio, Mirotic, Hernagomez bros will keep them high for another 5 years and they can add Garuba, Carlos Alocén, some other interesting prospects. I doubt they gonna decline much if any. If they will, it only shows that there will be changes. Australia might be even stronger as Australia, Canada, France lead in prospect power in recent years. Serbia will remain a contender, even if I also don't know new TEO. But there's such guys like Micic and plenty of depth. I do project noteworthy if not substantial renaissance of Lithuanian basketball, the growth, bigger or lesser, is inevitable compared to 10's, IMO. So plenty of changes, IMO. But most radical should be Canada and maybe even France being able to compose absolutely elite rosters. I mean the rosters that could equally or almost equally match USA's Kemba/Mitchel backourt and overall talent nearly. It is specially true in Canada's case.
                                Canada was and is rosterwise always one of the strongest teams but the canadian federation never manages to summon the best guys. Same goes for the tall blacks from NZ and also for the boomers from Australia. Steven Adams, one of my sons and probably the strongest player in the NBA has been refusing to play for the tall blacks for years right now. Same goes for the boomers. So having so many NBA players is not always a good thing.

                                The point of the discussion is not if Spain has good guys or not. Of course the hernangomez bros are fairly talented guys but they are not a Marc and Pau which makes them strong but not dominant.

                                The same goes for Serbia. Micic, Jovic etc are solid guys no doubt about that but they cant fill the gap of the play making abilities of Teodosic
                                Last edited by Toruko; 07-17-2020, 03:43 PM.

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