Playing the Odds: Question 1

[Federoy]

What are the odds that in the next 10-15 years that all three of the historic powers, USA, any former Yugoslav Republic or any former Soviet Republic, won't qualify for a either the Olympics or World Cup?

[Stevy]

What are the odds that in the next 10-15 years that all three of the historic powers, USA, any former Yugoslav Republic or any former Soviet Republic, won't qualify for a either the Olympics or World Cup?

Highly Unlikely especially the Americans though honestly I am not that familiar with Yugoslavia, I only know that Serbia, Croatia was once part of it. I also only know that Lithuania, Russia was once part of the USSR. For the countries I mentioned, there is no way in my opinion that they will miss a World cup but I do see them not make the Olympics depending on their future results except for the Americans in my opinion because for me they will always be qualified for the Olympics.

[Dtown]

Under the current format? Zero, especially for the World Cup.

The Americas is weak, and is actually in a decline from where it was in the '00s and early 10s. You would need to find about 7 teams better than the G-League Americans to keep them out of the World Cup and I don't see that anywhere on the horizon.

The Olympics are a different matter as there's smaller margin for error, but even then it's hard to see a scenario where the US didn't qualify in either the World Cup (because see above), or the inevitable Olympic Qualifier (that would almost certainly be in the US), and then coincidently none of Lithuania, Serbia, Slovenia, Russia, etc. managed to qualify either.